[pxpaulx]

USB killed RS-232 serial and Centronics parallel interfaces. Firewire didn't kill USB but that doesn't mean a better interface won't be built. In fact, *expect* a different interface to handle much higher data rates, maybe an optical-thread on a 1mm plug+jack.

I don't expect that the USB standard would remain exactly the same, but that it would be built upon. I'm surprised that USB hasn't increased transfer rates for such a long time, but updating would likely incorporate backwards compatibility anyway. Do you honestly see a data/power transfer medium more compact than a micro usb plug? Short of removing the wires entirely, I just don't see it being replaced at this point. There would be no point in replacing such a ubiquitous standard, only removing it entirely makes any sense to me.

My point is that imho there won't be an interface so astronomically better that it will replace the already universally accepted USB standard. There will always be niche cables like firewire, hdmi, heck rca analog connectors, but for data and power it would be redundant to make anything smaller than your baby fingernail (you'll lose it) or try to change something that literally everyone is familiar with and already uses.

[boriscleto]

USB killed RS-232 serial and Centronics parallel interfaces. Firewire didn't kill USB but that doesn't mean a better interface won't be built. In fact, *expect* a different interface to handle much higher data rates, maybe an optical-thread on a 1mm plug+jack.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thunderbolt_(interface)

It's just a matter of time until this is added to iOS devices.

[RoxnDox]

RS-232 has been around since the 1960s, but when was the last time you saw a device that used it? Or a PC with a RS-232 port?

Yesterday when I was in the office... We collect streamgage data from recorders onto the hydrologic tech's laptop via RS-232 connections. Backs up the radio telemetry datastream that feeds the near-real-time data to the Web.

RS-232 may not be a standard thing on most consumer computers anymore, but it's alive and well in the data-collection world.

Jim

[séamuis]

I don't expect that the USB standard would remain exactly the same, but that it would be built upon. I'm surprised that USB hasn't increased transfer rates for such a long time, but updating would likely incorporate backwards compatibility anyway. Do you honestly see a data/power transfer medium more compact than a micro usb plug? Short of removing the wires entirely, I just don't see it being replaced at this point. There would be no point in replacing such a ubiquitous standard, only removing it entirely makes any sense to me.

My point is that imho there won't be an interface so astronomically better that it will replace the already universally accepted USB standard. There will always be niche cables like firewire, hdmi, heck rca analog connectors, but for data and power it would be redundant to make anything smaller than your baby fingernail (you'll lose it) or try to change something that literally everyone is familiar with and already uses.

as pointed out above, thunderbolt is already taking USB's place and it will only be a matter of time before its industry standard. at that point USB won't have too many reasons for remaining a vital data interface. and one can imagine that something will come along that will replace thunderbolt. 100 years is one hell of a long time in the tech industry. sure, some things have remained relatively the same, but look how far we've advanced in other areas just in the last 5 years alone. we are rapidly moving away from storage on physical media such as CD's, DVD's and other optical discs. we are even finally moving away from hard disk drives in the consumer segment (apple is a big player in that) and its only natural that our interface technology for storage will become very different in a short period of time, much less 100 years. I'm thinking something closer to fibre optics and other pure optical interfaces. it won't be long before USB's days are numbered.

[Anvh]

as pointed out above, thunderbolt is already taking USB's place and it will only be a matter of time before its industry standard. at that point USB won't have too many reasons for remaining a vital data interface.

Thunderbolt, well at least Lightpeak wasn't meant to replace USB or Firewire, the idea behind lightpeak is to have one cable for data between your computer that carries all the interface inputs like Video, Audio, USB, firewire to your desk. So think about hub on your desk where USB and firewire connection in the monitor, that sort of thing.
Thats because the price of the lightpeak controller is simply to high and thats one of the biggest reason USB will stay, firewire is in a tougher spot, maybe if they can make the controllers cheaper...

Thunderbolt is btw a very weakened version that came out of the Lightpeak program it and it's actually already pretty doomed because Intel has announced to bring the full lightpeak version out this year. We are talking about 10x speed boost here, going from 10Gbps to 100Gbps. From what i read i couldnt see if you can connect lightpeak to thunderbolt so lets hope so...

In the future it might indeed fully replace USB but not at the moment or in several years.

[séamuis]

Thunderbolt, well at least Lightpeak wasn't meant to replace USB or Firewire, the idea behind lightpeak is to have one cable for data between your computer that carries all the interface inputs like Video, Audio, USB, firewire to your desk. So think about hub on your desk where USB and firewire connection in the monitor, that sort of thing.
Thats because the price of the lightpeak controller is simply to high and thats one of the biggest reason USB will stay, firewire is in a tougher spot, maybe if they can make the controllers cheaper...

Thunderbolt is btw a very weakened version that came out of the Lightpeak program it and it's actually already pretty doomed because Intel has announced to bring the full lightpeak version out this year. We are talking about 10x speed boost here, going from 10Gbps to 100Gbps. From what i read i couldnt see if you can connect lightpeak to thunderbolt so lets hope so...

In the future it might indeed fully replace USB but not at the moment or in several years.

I'm aware of what thunderbolt is, and what it was meant to be ( an optical carrier not electrical) I'm also aware of the difference between thunderbolt and the full capability of the light peak technology. my point wasn't that thunderbolt itself is going to replace USB, but similar technologies will, in short time. thunderbolt is just the first step. and apple can take some credit for taking the chance and putting something else on the table and saying 'here we go, lets move in new directions.' this is the catalyst that will take USB to its death much quicker than a lot of people here are willing to admit or can see.

[Tom S.]

Why is it being assumed that USB won't be around in 100 years?

It won't be because it still requires physical connection. Less than 100 years from now, connections will be wireless. Bluetooth is an example of this, as is wireless charging of cell phones and other devices.





(NOTE: The views in this post represent my own opinions and should not be compared to any sane person, living or dead.)

[Anvh]

my point wasn't that thunderbolt itself is going to replace USB, but similar technologies will, in short time. thunderbolt is just the first step. and apple can take some credit for taking the chance and putting something else on the table and saying 'here we go, lets move in new directions.' this is the catalyst that will take USB to its death much quicker than a lot of people here are willing to admit or can see.

I don't know what i must do with this comment.
In your first comment you say optical is the future and now products like thunderbolt, how does that work?

One thing is quite certain USB will not disappear over several years and it has several reasons.
- there are several trillion different devices using USB
- it's cheap
- it's "good enough" for most devices

Beside that I think wireless will be much more the future then cabled solutions.

[pxpaulx]

It won't be because it still requires physical connection. Less than 100 years from now, connections will be wireless. Bluetooth is an example of this, as is wireless charging of cell phones and other devices.

I said that in one of my posts in the thread - wireless would be the only option to end USB, it is simply too ubiquitous, simple and widespread to be knocked off the podium by another physical interface. That doesn't mean it won't be upgraded, but the standard itself won't be going anywhere anytime soon.

[séamuis]

I don't know what i must do with this comment.
In your first comment you say optical is the future and now products like thunderbolt, how does that work?

One thing is quite certain USB will not disappear over several years and it has several reasons.
- there are several trillion different devices using USB
- it's cheap
- it's "good enough" for most devices

Beside that I think wireless will be much more the future then cabled solutions.

exactly. thats what I am getting at, but you seem to be confusing my original statement with USB being completely replaced by another wired connection. I was merely saying that thunderbolt and light peak are the first steps into the replacement of USB.

lightpeak as you know was meant to be an optical transfer technology. wired, with a physical connection but optical. that is the first step towards moving in a new direction. light peak is an infant step, but it is a clear sign of where we are going. wireless interfacing. this isn't about light peak or thunderbolt in particular, so I'm not sure why you are hung on that. its about moving towards wireless interfacing for the consumer market. that will make USB obsolete much sooner than most are realizing. look at things like the mass adoption of touch screen, wireless charging, wireless data connections. that is the direction we are moving and I think, while I could be wrong that optical transfer and interfacing will be where the consumer market moves first. my point though is that in 100 years, we won't be using physical connections for interfacing. so how will the average consumer be able to interface with a USB only device?

[Anvh]

I was hung about thunderbolt and lightpeak because everyone else was mentioning it, even you talked about thunderbolt in both your comments for example

Over 100 years i'm sure that we will have an USB adapter for it, there are just too many USB devices to ignore it.
well maybe not over 100 years but the moment the step between USB and something else is there i'm sure there would be a way to connect them.
Even now if you want you can add connectors to you PC or buy adapters for ancient connectors.

btw lightpeak (optical thunderbolt) is coming.
Intel: Optical cables for Thunderbolt coming this year | Macworld

[séamuis]

I was hung about thunderbolt and lightpeak because everyone else was mentioning it, even you talked about thunderbolt in both your comments for example

Over 100 years i'm sure that we will have an USB adapter for it, there are just too many USB devices to ignore it.
well maybe not over 100 years but the moment the step between USB and something else is there i'm sure there would be a way to connect them.
Even now if you want you can add connectors to you PC or buy adapters for ancient connectors.

btw lightpeak (optical thunderbolt) is coming.
Intel: Optical cables for Thunderbolt coming this year | Macworld

that goes on the assumption that personal computing devices will still be machines we hold in our hands, keep in our pockets or sit on our desks. I think personal computing will likely be far different than that in 100 years. however, I do agree that you will likely be able to interface somehow with adapters, but that doesn't address the issue of creating a device with one single (absolutely on the verge of being obsolete interface technology) and marketing it as viable for a possible 100 year storage solution. it just doesn't make sense, and I suspect you know that, which is why you keep avoiding the big issue and going after the fact that even by your own admission, we will be well past simple wired USB type interfaces in the future, and telling my lightpeak isn't the replacement for USB. and I can bet, this future will be a lot sooner than 100 years.

[DeadJohn]

Adding to the 100-year complexity, I haven't seen anyone else say anything about the file format yet. Even if USB is still backwards compatible so we can read our files in 100 years, RAW and JPG might no longer be supported by whatever software is being used.

You might need to find a 100 year old computer to view your 100 year old images.

The 100 year warranty is hype anyway. Good luck finding the original receipt of it fails next some competitor will claim a thousand year warranty that no one will really benefit from.

[séamuis]

The 100 year warranty is hype anyway. Good luck finding the original receipt of it fails next some competitor will claim a thousand year warranty that no one will really benefit from.

most warranties are bogus anyway, as most consumers don't actually take advantage of them despite that fact that they value a solid warranty as a reason for purchasing a particular product. the manufacturers are well aware of this, so they can often claim all sorts of things and never have to worry about a majority of their customers even claiming them, because they are just too lazy to deal with the hassle of actually making the company hold good on said warranty. its an incredibly effective marketing technique, but its sad that we allow ourselves to be duped in such a way.

[Anvh]

I think you missed my point.
USB won't go away overnight there are simply too many devices that mean that if the successor of the USB is there it's a certainty that there will still be USB so you can swap all information to the new device. it's the same with IDE and DATA, inside the PC. When sata was new all mother boards still had IDE now that number is decreasing, also with pci to pci–express.

But yeah the 100 year thing is very strange though, I won't argue that.
About the file format, I doubt that will be a problem, you should know how many old formats you can open today...