[lurchlarson]

I've been thinking that we are on the verge of a real EVIL invasion. I would be willing to bet that the the stars of Photokina this year will all be EVIL. Olympus will have a new PEN, Sony will be pushing the NEX, Samsung the NX, Canon an Nikon might make their own EVIL's etc.

With all that being said...I was wondering what you all think the timeline might be that DSLRs are replaced by EVILs?

[RawheaD]

Well, by definition, replacement can only happen when FF mirrorless cameras become viable options for the top pros. Currently we have the M9 and that's it, and that works to an extent because the M series always was a rangefinder (i.e., you can use all the same lenses you used up to M8.2 on the M9).

Not the case with a mirrorless FF camera--sure, an adapter can be made to mount the current lens lineups, which will help with the transition, but that won't constitute a "viable option" since minimizing bulk is the primary advantage of mirroless cameras. A mirrorless body + adapter + legacy lens not only does little to reduce bulk, but likely will lead to poorly balanced setup ergonimically.


As with many of the radical changes in the past, somebody's gonna have to come out with a paradigm changing product, and that product has to be massively successful. Then and only then will the other companies follow suit, and only then would DSLRs have been "replaced" by EVILs.

I actually think Sony might be the one that has the potential to pull off something like that. Canon/Nikon are so heavily invested in their respective mounts (lens lineups) that they can't afford to be so radical. Pentax doesn't have the corporate prowess. Oly/Panny, by definition of micro-4/3 cannot compete in the fullframe arena. NX is going to flop, I'm almost certain of that now.

That leaves only Sony. They have the money, and they have the tech to do everything in-house, especially important being the sensor. They only have one FF flagship, and for better or for worse, their users aren't that invested in their lens lineup--- not nearly on the level of Canikon owners.

If Sony can release a FF flagship mirrorless system, that is basically just the FF version of NEX (i.e., same E-mount), launch it with at least 3 pro-level zoom lenses and a couple of killer primes including a non-retrofocus (super)wideangle---Zeiss Biogon 21mm F2.8 anyone?---that would be huge, and potentially huge enough to get Canon & Nikon jumping head-first onto the FF/mirrorless bandwagon.

My guess is that something like that *could* happen within the next 4 years.

[nosnoop]

Well, by definition, replacement can only happen when FF mirrorless cameras become viable options for the top pros.

Hmm... I don't see the reason for this "definition" at all.
We are not talking about 100% replacement here. For example, has CD "replaced" vinyl? For all practical purposes, it is a "yes"; but vinyl still exists!

Mirrorless will "replace" the low and mid entry DSLR very soon. It will take longer for higher end; and it may or may not happen for FF! FF DSLR could continue to exist for a long time as a niche product, just like you can still buy film SLR as of today.

[RawheaD]

Mirrorless will "replace" the low and mid entry DSLR very soon. It will take longer for higher end; and it may or may not happen for FF! FF DSLR could continue to exist for a long time as a niche product, just like you can still buy film SLR as of today.

You just changed the question, though. The OP asked if/when mirrorless will replace DSLRs. You said mirroless will replace low/mid/entry DSLRs.


I mean, if it's OK to limit the scope of the discussion, we can say that mirrorless has *already* replaced DSLRs. Just look at Samsung's NX. Are they making any DSLRs now? Same with Panny and maybe even Olympus.


To be clear, I agree with you that there is a much better chance that the low-end DSLRs would be "replaced" by mirrorless in the nearer future. We just disagree on whether or not that fits the bill of the OPs question. I wouldn't count mirrorless cannibalizing the bottom-end as a "replacement", so long as professionals and high-end amateurs ("pro-sumers") continue to use DSLRs.

We are not talking about 100% replacement here

Neither am I. But if mirrorless doesn't become a viable option for pros (which is all I said; I said nothing about 100% replacent), then exactly ZERO pros will move over to mirrorless. And, at least according to my definition, until they do, mirrorless will not have "replaced" DSLRs.

Film was "replaced" by digital, not because all the amateurs moved over to digital P&S, but because at one point, all the pros moved over to DSLRs.

[Aristophanes]

I've been thinking that we are on the verge of a real EVIL invasion. I would be willing to bet that the the stars of Photokina this year will all be EVIL. Olympus will have a new PEN, Sony will be pushing the NEX, Samsung the NX, Canon an Nikon might make their own EVIL's etc.

With all that being said...I was wondering what you all think the timeline might be that DSLRs are replaced by EVILs?

It depends on if an EVF can replace an OVF. And, if they can do so economically.

Right now, they cannot.

Or, will everyone be willing to do without a VF and do all framing and focusing using the rear LCD?

Nope.

Keep in mind that what pros use is what many prosumers emulate.

[TaoMaas]

It depends on if an EVF can replace an OVF. And, if they can do so economically.

Right now, they cannot.

Or, will everyone be willing to do without a VF and do all framing and focusing using the rear LCD?

Nope.

Keep in mind that what pros use is what many prosumers emulate.

I agree. How many of you have tried to use an electronic viewfinder for critical manual focusing? It's nowhere near as positive as an optical viewfinder. I think EVIL cameras may well overtake DSLRs, but I think there will always be a market for OVFs in the serious amateur/pro category.

[johnmflores]

Neither am I. But if mirrorless doesn't become a viable option for pros (which is all I said; I said nothing about 100% replacent), then exactly ZERO pros will move over to mirrorless. And, at least according to my definition, until they do, mirrorless will not have "replaced" DSLRs.

Film was "replaced" by digital, not because all the amateurs moved over to digital P&S, but because at one point, all the pros moved over to DSLRs.

Interesting line of thinking but I'm not sure if I buy it. I can't imagine someone standing at the camera counter at Target looking at $200 cameras thinking, "what do the pros use?"

If Canon's dSLR line from the T2i down is eventually replaced by mirrorless cameras, leaving just the 7D, 5D, ad 1D "pro" lines, then I imagine Canon's unit sales would heavily favor mirrorless. Profitability? I'm not sure what the margins are, but I imagine Canon sells 10+ Rebels for every "pro" camera they sell.

Or, will everyone be willing to do without a VF and do all framing and focusing using the rear LCD?

Nope.

Keep in mind that what pros use is what many prosumers emulate.

The other day I was lying on the ground and craning my neck to get the low-angle shot that I wanted. At that moment I would have gladly forsaken an OVF for a tilt-swivel EVF! Better yet, give me a wireless screen separate from the lens. With a setup like that I'll be able to get some unique POVs that will help make my work stand out from the crowd.



To answer the OP, yes. There's a whole generation of picture-takers that don't even know what an OVF is and are happily snapping away. I can't tell you how many times I've handed my dSLR to a younger person and they stared at the rear LCD, expecting to compose the shot with it. Unlike most of the older members of this forum, they will not miss what they never had in the first place.

[GrinMode]

Eventually I guess. When the EVF / LCD tech is good enough that you cannot tell the diff between OVF.

Although I'm not sure about an LCD only setup on pro cams. One might reconsider holding a 2lb (+ lens and flash) gear at arms length while composing via the lcd . It might 'look' unprofessional

[Clicker]

They both meter differently; apparently with mirror meters more accurate than without, i read that somewhere ...be nice now

[kxr4trids]

Imagine pairing your EVIL with something like this. http://www.vuzix.com/iwear/ Would make for surreptitious street photography.

For pro photographers that want to shoot primes or have multiple zooms at the ready (and can spare the expense), you could attach an EVIL to every lens in your bag/on your shoulder. Instead of carrying a second camera, every lens you have is a camera, with very little increase in weight or size.

With the eyewear, you could eliminate the OVF altogether, and the entire EVIL could be control surfaces (and even smaller than they are now). Next stop: redesigning the lens for the new ergonomics of using the lens as the camera.

[MRRiley]

Did P&S's kill SLRs? Different users have different needs. Aunt Jane can get by with a P&S... I can't.

Frankly, I (and most serious photographers) want a true optical path/view, not an interpolated and interpreted one.

That said, I welcome the availability of the LCD and live view, but only as an addition to the OVF, not as a replacement.

Mike

[TaoMaas]

I welcome the availability of the LCD and live view, but only as an addition to the OVF, not as a replacement.

Yep. Although I will add that I would also be open to buying a compact EVIL Pentax as a backup camera if it would accept K-mount lenses.

[nosnoop]

They both meter differently; apparently with mirror meters more accurate than without, i read that somewhere ...be nice now

It's the opposite. Mirrorless should potentially be more accurate.
DSLR uses separate sensors for metering. And you can only cover a portion of the image, and it has a finite number of metering "zone".
For the mirrorless, you use the main image sensor for metering. The whole image is covered and the metering pattern/zone is only limited by software implementation.

[nosnoop]

Did P&S's kill SLRs? Different users have different needs. Aunt Jane can get by with a P&S... I can't.

But P&S does not have interchangeable lenses, and it uses small sensors.... something not shared by the mirrorless.

Mirror would never go away completely.
OTOH, mirrorless would eventually pushed DSLR from a main stream product to a niche product.

[TaoMaas]

OTOH, mirrorless would eventually pushed DSLR from a main stream product to a niche product.

SLRs have always been somewhat of a niche product. We just don't realize it because we're all into photography. Compared to the overall population, we're a little odd.