Originally posted by nosnoop Mirrorless will "replace" the low and mid entry DSLR very soon. It will take longer for higher end; and it may or may not happen for FF! FF DSLR could continue to exist for a long time as a niche product, just like you can still buy film SLR as of today.
You just changed the question, though. The OP asked if/when mirrorless will replace DSLRs. You said mirroless will replace low/mid/entry DSLRs.
I mean, if it's OK to limit the scope of the discussion, we can say that mirrorless has *already* replaced DSLRs. Just look at Samsung's NX. Are they making any DSLRs now? Same with Panny and maybe even Olympus.
To be clear, I agree with you that there is a much better chance that the low-end DSLRs would be "replaced" by mirrorless in the nearer future. We just disagree on whether or not that fits the bill of the OPs question. I wouldn't count mirrorless cannibalizing the bottom-end as a "replacement", so long as professionals and high-end amateurs ("pro-sumers") continue to use DSLRs.
Originally posted by nosnoop We are not talking about 100% replacement here
Neither am I. But if mirrorless doesn't become a viable option for pros (which is all I said; I said nothing about 100% replacent), then exactly ZERO pros will move over to mirrorless. And, at least according to my definition, until they do, mirrorless will not have "replaced" DSLRs.
Film was "replaced" by digital, not because all the amateurs moved over to digital P&S, but because at one point, all the pros moved over to DSLRs.