PF Holiday Loyal Site Supporter Special | December Pentax Lens Tournament

Impartial · 10-13-2010, 08:19 AM

With Olympus rumoured to have released their last true DSLR, Samsung and Panasonic already out of the market (moved to EVIL), and Sony also rumoured to leave the SLR market for its SLTs, will we be down to three manufacturers (Canon, Nikon, Pentax) of actual DSLRs by 2015? What do you think?

Blue · 10-13-2010, 08:33 AM

Originally posted by Impartial

With Olympus rumoured to have released their last true DSLR, Samsung and Panasonic already out of the market (moved to EVIL), and Sony also rumoured to leave the SLR market for its SLTs, will we be down to three manufacturers (Canon, Nikon, Pentax) of actual DSLRs by 2015? What do you think?

Panny and Sammy never were really in the SLR business. They had serious collaborators.

Impartial · 10-13-2010, 08:40 AM

Originally posted by Blue

Panny and Sammy never were really in the SLR business. They had serious collaborators.

True enough. But both have entered the EVIL business with both feet . . . interesting.

kittykat46 · 10-13-2010, 09:26 AM

By that time the dSLR concept itself may have serious competition from mirror-less systems.
I think they can definitely coexist, no point going to into debates about which system will get killed off, but EVIL cameras will be a major competitor at the entry dSLR-end, once they get through a few rounds of design improvements.

mikemike · 10-13-2010, 09:58 AM

You forgot about Sigma and Leica both of them seem to be all in when it comes to DSLRs.

Impartial · 10-13-2010, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by mikemike

You forgot about Sigma and Leica both of them seem to be all in when it comes to DSLRs.

Will Stigma still be making there Foveon cameras in 5 years (a niche within a niche)? And I thought Leica made rangefinders . . .

mikemike · 10-13-2010, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by Impartial

Will Stigma still be making there Foveon cameras in 5 years (a niche within a niche)? And I thought Leica made rangefinders . . .

Sigma hasn't been deterred by the unmitigated "success" of the SD14 and SD15 for the past 4 years, I see no reason for them to stop now.

Rangefind this...10801 Leica S2 SLR Digital Camera Body with Dual Shutter System, 37.5 Megapixel, 3.0" LCD/OLED Display, Black

Impartial · 10-13-2010, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by mikemike

Sigma hasn't been deterred by the unmitigated "success" of the SD14 and SD15 for the past 4 years, I see no reason for them to stop now.

Rangefind this...10801 Leica S2 SLR Digital Camera Body with Dual Shutter System, 37.5 Megapixel, 3.0" LCD/OLED Display, Black

Is that an MF? Obviously MF makers would be another list . . .

Parallax · 10-13-2010, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by Impartial

With Olympus rumoured to have released their last true DSLR, Samsung and Panasonic already out of the market (moved to EVIL), and Sony also rumoured to leave the SLR market for its SLTs, will we be down to three manufacturers (Canon, Nikon, Pentax) of actual DSLRs by 2015? What do you think?

I think there is nothing here that is Pentax news or rumor. More guessing. Moved to General Photography.

Impartial · 10-13-2010, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by Parallax

I think there is nothing here that is Pentax news or rumor. More guessing. Moved to General Photography.

As far as I know, Olympus and Sony leaving the DSLR market are still rumours. But they are not Pentax, so General Photography is fine with me!

Lowell Goudge · 10-13-2010, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by Impartial

With Olympus rumoured to have released their last true DSLR, Samsung and Panasonic already out of the market (moved to EVIL), and Sony also rumoured to leave the SLR market for its SLTs, will we be down to three manufacturers (Canon, Nikon, Pentax) of actual DSLRs by 2015? What do you think?

Let's face it, the 4/3 market was doomed to fail due to the extreme cost of a wide angle lens, that still respected a large enough system regestry distance to swing a mirror.

They will do much better in the EVIL domain because they can do a lot more with the lens using the reduced regestry distance.

the real issue is that for many applications, the low level performance of an EVIL camera for viewing and focusing si pretty bad, I know, I also have an EVF camera, and also just look at the low light image in live view on a K7

The optical view finder and big sensor of a DSLR will still take a good share ov the market. and where I see EVIL cameras or EVF cameras wit big sensors taking over is the travel camera market.

The hell with an SRL if you can have an ASP-C camera with a 16 - 75mm lens at F2.8. that would be equivelent to 24 to about 110mm and would cover most even hard core travel that except for tele uses you would not need anything else. Couple that to a well designed 0.5x front converter matched to the lens, and distortion correction software and you have it all.

RioRico · 10-13-2010, 01:52 PM

You want a prediction. Here is my Holy Prophesy, courtesy of my Holy Prophesy Machine:

I don't know. Nobody knows.

But I suspect a basic rule of capitalism will prevail: Where demand exists, so does supply. I expect to see at least one Chinese dSLR maker emerge. Or maybe EVFs will rapidly mature, and EVILs will devour dSLRs. Whatever.

alohadave · 10-13-2010, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by Impartial

Is that an MF? Obviously MF makers would be another list . . .

It's still a dSLR, with a reflex mirror.

Reportage · 10-13-2010, 06:28 PM

a more interesting question...in 5 years, will Sony supply sensors to ALL the brands?

Impartial · 10-13-2010, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by alohadave

It's still a dSLR, with a reflex mirror.

Yes, but if I list Leica then I also have to list Hasselblad, Mamiya, Sinar, and Leaf. But personally I am not interested in the market where Pentax competes with Leica, Hasselblad, Mamiya, Sinar and Leaf (the Medium Format market).

I am interested in the market where Pentax competes with Canon and Nikon (the consumer/prosumer DSLR market). And the other competitors in this latter market appear to be backing away . . .

10-13-2010, 08:19 AM	#1
Impartial Senior Member Join Date: May 2010 Photos: Gallery Posts: 208	How many DSLR makers will there be in 5 years? With Olympus rumoured to have released their last true DSLR, Samsung and Panasonic already out of the market (moved to EVIL), and Sony also rumoured to leave the SLR market for its SLTs, will we be down to three manufacturers (Canon, Nikon, Pentax) of actual DSLRs by 2015? What do you think?

10-13-2010, 01:52 PM	#12
RioRico Veteran Member Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Limbo, California Posts: 11,264	You want a prediction. Here is my Holy Prophesy, courtesy of my Holy Prophesy Machine: I don't know. Nobody knows. But I suspect a basic rule of capitalism will prevail: Where demand exists, so does supply. I expect to see at least one Chinese dSLR maker emerge. Or maybe EVFs will rapidly mature, and EVILs will devour dSLRs. Whatever.

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10-13-2010, 08:33 AM	#2
Blue Moderator Site Supporter Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Florida Hill Country Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 17,298	Originally posted by Impartial With Olympus rumoured to have released their last true DSLR, Samsung and Panasonic already out of the market (moved to EVIL), and Sony also rumoured to leave the SLR market for its SLTs, will we be down to three manufacturers (Canon, Nikon, Pentax) of actual DSLRs by 2015? What do you think? Panny and Sammy never were really in the SLR business. They had serious collaborators.

10-13-2010, 08:40 AM	#3
Impartial Senior Member Join Date: May 2010 Photos: Gallery Posts: 208 Original Poster	Originally posted by Blue Panny and Sammy never were really in the SLR business. They had serious collaborators. True enough. But both have entered the EVIL business with both feet . . . interesting.

10-13-2010, 09:26 AM	#4
kittykat46 Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 923	By that time the dSLR concept itself may have serious competition from mirror-less systems. I think they can definitely coexist, no point going to into debates about which system will get killed off, but EVIL cameras will be a major competitor at the entry dSLR-end, once they get through a few rounds of design improvements.

10-13-2010, 09:58 AM	#5
mikemike Inactive Account Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: New Orleans Photos: Gallery Posts: 3,053	You forgot about Sigma and Leica both of them seem to be all in when it comes to DSLRs.

10-13-2010, 10:01 AM	#6
Impartial Senior Member Join Date: May 2010 Photos: Gallery Posts: 208 Original Poster	Originally posted by mikemike You forgot about Sigma and Leica both of them seem to be all in when it comes to DSLRs. Will Stigma still be making there Foveon cameras in 5 years (a niche within a niche)? And I thought Leica made rangefinders . . .

10-13-2010, 10:07 AM	#7
mikemike Inactive Account Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: New Orleans Photos: Gallery Posts: 3,053	Originally posted by Impartial Will Stigma still be making there Foveon cameras in 5 years (a niche within a niche)? And I thought Leica made rangefinders . . . Sigma hasn't been deterred by the unmitigated "success" of the SD14 and SD15 for the past 4 years, I see no reason for them to stop now. Rangefind this...10801 Leica S2 SLR Digital Camera Body with Dual Shutter System, 37.5 Megapixel, 3.0" LCD/OLED Display, Black

10-13-2010, 10:09 AM	#8
Impartial Senior Member Join Date: May 2010 Photos: Gallery Posts: 208 Original Poster	Originally posted by mikemike Sigma hasn't been deterred by the unmitigated "success" of the SD14 and SD15 for the past 4 years, I see no reason for them to stop now. Rangefind this...10801 Leica S2 SLR Digital Camera Body with Dual Shutter System, 37.5 Megapixel, 3.0" LCD/OLED Display, Black Is that an MF? Obviously MF makers would be another list . . .

10-13-2010, 10:22 AM	#9
Parallax Senior Moderator Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: South Dakota Photos: Gallery Posts: 17,520	Originally posted by Impartial With Olympus rumoured to have released their last true DSLR, Samsung and Panasonic already out of the market (moved to EVIL), and Sony also rumoured to leave the SLR market for its SLTs, will we be down to three manufacturers (Canon, Nikon, Pentax) of actual DSLRs by 2015? What do you think? I think there is nothing here that is Pentax news or rumor. More guessing. Moved to General Photography.

10-13-2010, 10:38 AM	#10
Impartial Senior Member Join Date: May 2010 Photos: Gallery Posts: 208 Original Poster	Originally posted by Parallax I think there is nothing here that is Pentax news or rumor. More guessing. Moved to General Photography. As far as I know, Olympus and Sony leaving the DSLR market are still rumours. But they are not Pentax, so General Photography is fine with me!

10-13-2010, 10:43 AM	#11
Lowell Goudge Pentaxian Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Toronto Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 16,318	Originally posted by Impartial With Olympus rumoured to have released their last true DSLR, Samsung and Panasonic already out of the market (moved to EVIL), and Sony also rumoured to leave the SLR market for its SLTs, will we be down to three manufacturers (Canon, Nikon, Pentax) of actual DSLRs by 2015? What do you think? Let's face it, the 4/3 market was doomed to fail due to the extreme cost of a wide angle lens, that still respected a large enough system regestry distance to swing a mirror. They will do much better in the EVIL domain because they can do a lot more with the lens using the reduced regestry distance. the real issue is that for many applications, the low level performance of an EVIL camera for viewing and focusing si pretty bad, I know, I also have an EVF camera, and also just look at the low light image in live view on a K7 The optical view finder and big sensor of a DSLR will still take a good share ov the market. and where I see EVIL cameras or EVF cameras wit big sensors taking over is the travel camera market. The hell with an SRL if you can have an ASP-C camera with a 16 - 75mm lens at F2.8. that would be equivelent to 24 to about 110mm and would cover most even hard core travel that except for tele uses you would not need anything else. Couple that to a well designed 0.5x front converter matched to the lens, and distortion correction software and you have it all.

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10-13-2010, 06:09 PM	#13
alohadave Veteran Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Quincy, MA Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 2,024	Originally posted by Impartial Is that an MF? Obviously MF makers would be another list . . . It's still a dSLR, with a reflex mirror.

10-13-2010, 06:28 PM	#14
Reportage Veteran Member Join Date: Feb 2009 Photos: Gallery Posts: 739	a more interesting question...in 5 years, will Sony supply sensors to ALL the brands?

10-13-2010, 06:50 PM	#15
Impartial Senior Member Join Date: May 2010 Photos: Gallery Posts: 208 Original Poster	Originally posted by alohadave It's still a dSLR, with a reflex mirror. Yes, but if I list Leica then I also have to list Hasselblad, Mamiya, Sinar, and Leaf. But personally I am not interested in the market where Pentax competes with Leica, Hasselblad, Mamiya, Sinar and Leaf (the Medium Format market). I am interested in the market where Pentax competes with Canon and Nikon (the consumer/prosumer DSLR market). And the other competitors in this latter market appear to be backing away . . .

How many DSLR makers will there be in 5 years?

PF Holiday Loyal Site Supporter Special | December Pentax Lens Tournament