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10-13-2010, 08:19 AM   #1
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How many DSLR makers will there be in 5 years?

With Olympus rumoured to have released their last true DSLR, Samsung and Panasonic already out of the market (moved to EVIL), and Sony also rumoured to leave the SLR market for its SLTs, will we be down to three manufacturers (Canon, Nikon, Pentax) of actual DSLRs by 2015? What do you think?

10-13-2010, 08:33 AM   #2
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QuoteOriginally posted by Impartial Quote
With Olympus rumoured to have released their last true DSLR, Samsung and Panasonic already out of the market (moved to EVIL), and Sony also rumoured to leave the SLR market for its SLTs, will we be down to three manufacturers (Canon, Nikon, Pentax) of actual DSLRs by 2015? What do you think?
Panny and Sammy never were really in the SLR business. They had serious collaborators.
10-13-2010, 08:40 AM   #3
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QuoteOriginally posted by Blue Quote
Panny and Sammy never were really in the SLR business. They had serious collaborators.
True enough. But both have entered the EVIL business with both feet . . . interesting.
10-13-2010, 09:26 AM   #4
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By that time the dSLR concept itself may have serious competition from mirror-less systems.
I think they can definitely coexist, no point going to into debates about which system will get killed off, but EVIL cameras will be a major competitor at the entry dSLR-end, once they get through a few rounds of design improvements.

10-13-2010, 09:58 AM   #5
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You forgot about Sigma and Leica both of them seem to be all in when it comes to DSLRs.
10-13-2010, 10:01 AM   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by mikemike Quote
You forgot about Sigma and Leica both of them seem to be all in when it comes to DSLRs.
Will Stigma still be making there Foveon cameras in 5 years (a niche within a niche)? And I thought Leica made rangefinders . . .
10-13-2010, 10:07 AM   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by Impartial Quote
Will Stigma still be making there Foveon cameras in 5 years (a niche within a niche)? And I thought Leica made rangefinders . . .
Sigma hasn't been deterred by the unmitigated "success" of the SD14 and SD15 for the past 4 years, I see no reason for them to stop now.

Rangefind this...10801 Leica S2 SLR Digital Camera Body with Dual Shutter System, 37.5 Megapixel, 3.0" LCD/OLED Display, Black
10-13-2010, 10:09 AM   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by mikemike Quote
Sigma hasn't been deterred by the unmitigated "success" of the SD14 and SD15 for the past 4 years, I see no reason for them to stop now.

Rangefind this...10801 Leica S2 SLR Digital Camera Body with Dual Shutter System, 37.5 Megapixel, 3.0" LCD/OLED Display, Black
Is that an MF? Obviously MF makers would be another list . . .

10-13-2010, 10:22 AM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by Impartial Quote
With Olympus rumoured to have released their last true DSLR, Samsung and Panasonic already out of the market (moved to EVIL), and Sony also rumoured to leave the SLR market for its SLTs, will we be down to three manufacturers (Canon, Nikon, Pentax) of actual DSLRs by 2015? What do you think?
I think there is nothing here that is Pentax news or rumor. More guessing. Moved to General Photography.
10-13-2010, 10:38 AM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by Parallax Quote
I think there is nothing here that is Pentax news or rumor. More guessing. Moved to General Photography.
As far as I know, Olympus and Sony leaving the DSLR market are still rumours. But they are not Pentax, so General Photography is fine with me!
10-13-2010, 10:43 AM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by Impartial Quote
With Olympus rumoured to have released their last true DSLR, Samsung and Panasonic already out of the market (moved to EVIL), and Sony also rumoured to leave the SLR market for its SLTs, will we be down to three manufacturers (Canon, Nikon, Pentax) of actual DSLRs by 2015? What do you think?
Let's face it, the 4/3 market was doomed to fail due to the extreme cost of a wide angle lens, that still respected a large enough system regestry distance to swing a mirror.

They will do much better in the EVIL domain because they can do a lot more with the lens using the reduced regestry distance.

the real issue is that for many applications, the low level performance of an EVIL camera for viewing and focusing si pretty bad, I know, I also have an EVF camera, and also just look at the low light image in live view on a K7

The optical view finder and big sensor of a DSLR will still take a good share ov the market. and where I see EVIL cameras or EVF cameras wit big sensors taking over is the travel camera market.

The hell with an SRL if you can have an ASP-C camera with a 16 - 75mm lens at F2.8. that would be equivelent to 24 to about 110mm and would cover most even hard core travel that except for tele uses you would not need anything else. Couple that to a well designed 0.5x front converter matched to the lens, and distortion correction software and you have it all.
10-13-2010, 01:52 PM   #12
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You want a prediction. Here is my Holy Prophesy, courtesy of my Holy Prophesy Machine:
I don't know. Nobody knows.
But I suspect a basic rule of capitalism will prevail: Where demand exists, so does supply. I expect to see at least one Chinese dSLR maker emerge. Or maybe EVFs will rapidly mature, and EVILs will devour dSLRs. Whatever.
10-13-2010, 06:09 PM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by Impartial Quote
Is that an MF? Obviously MF makers would be another list . . .
It's still a dSLR, with a reflex mirror.
10-13-2010, 06:28 PM   #14
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a more interesting question...in 5 years, will Sony supply sensors to ALL the brands?
10-13-2010, 06:50 PM   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by alohadave Quote
It's still a dSLR, with a reflex mirror.
Yes, but if I list Leica then I also have to list Hasselblad, Mamiya, Sinar, and Leaf. But personally I am not interested in the market where Pentax competes with Leica, Hasselblad, Mamiya, Sinar and Leaf (the Medium Format market).

I am interested in the market where Pentax competes with Canon and Nikon (the consumer/prosumer DSLR market). And the other competitors in this latter market appear to be backing away . . .
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