I have been quietly watching the K5 since its announcement, wondering what I was going to do. So with the added Ricoh wrinkle - has anything changed?
I figure that the K5 replacement will come near the beginning of the year - so far it been about 16 months between announcements, with the Kr replacement in September or so, since they have been on a 12 month schedule. The Ricoh acquisition will have no real affect until the next body upgrade cycle in terms of technical functionality and capabilities. The K3 and K? are already baked in at this time. Will the new replacements stay on the current schedules or will they slip out - only time will tell.
So my K5 decision will probably be when the K5 hits the $1K mark or when the K3 (or what ever they call it) is announced. In some ways I guess I would like to see what the new functionality will be, before I decide what to do next.
I anticipate that Ricoh in time, will meet - probably 70% of our hopeful expectations (being cautiously optimistic), keeping the Pentax name on the K line - is a given, while probably having all the P&S be called Ricohs. The warranties will stay the same (to make them worse would be really bad), although it will be interesting to see if they keep the 2 year extensions around for a reasonably low price - or better yet, just add it in. Price points will be interesting - in that I think that Hoya has been holding the pricing very firm so as to juice up profitability as much as possible for the sale. So, that makes the price point for the K3 really interesting, in that the D7000 under cut the K5 by a few hundred dollars and the margin still continues between the two today. That may be one area that Ricoh may have an immediate effect. With hopefully the K5 problems behind the production curve, a more aggressive price decline would be nice (but probably at the expense of future K3 sales in some cases) leading up to the new body announcement.
Where the real test comes in, will be in two areas - I think. A K lens roadmap announcement, and the 645D - either body improvement and/or lens announcement (roadmap?). Both would be really nice. An announcement for something like the Tethering upgrade for the 645D could be an early indication that Ricoh could be a leading indicator to us. The K lens roadmap would provide some indication as to how quickly and possibly how much additional funding Ricoh may able and willing to provide Pentax - and objectively what they plan to do with the K series.
Will Ricoh push the announcement schedules out so as to ensure that there is adequate QC for the new models? Will they maintain the current build quality - that could be a first indication - that we might see in the new models. A K3, K? or both with more QC/build problems than what we have just gone through on the K5 and Kr, will not be good - even if they expand Pentax's R&D budgets.
So - enough rambling - I am going to go shoot the fireworks display over by the golf course.