I've gone through in my mind what happened and I think the suggestions about the environment effect on the camera are the cause.
Camera was sitting on the floor of the car under an AC vent, so got very cold. Then got out of the car and walked in the sun to the work site - about 300m.
I noticed at the time that the black camera had quickly become very hot to touch - the sun was pretty strong. I actually put my helmet on whilst walking to site because the top of my head was getting baked.
I guess that the difference between the outside temperature of the camera and the inside temperature might have created wavy air currents inside the mirror box of the camera - a bit like you get with moving a telescope from inside to outside.
I went to Singapore last year and used my 18-55 exclusively because of the humidity and rain - all the shots were reasonably sharp and not a horrible smudge anyway. I also was walking around outside mostly and not going in and out of air-conditioned buildings and the sun is pretty "gentle" there compared with Perth. I found a shot at f/7.1 and 18mm - everything from the foreground to the background is clear and in focus as I'd expect at that aperture and focal length, you can count the tiles on the roof at the back and the edges of the leaves don't have fringing.
So, I think I've got an explanation I can live with and will watch out for this in future. Temperature difference due to the black camera and lens in the sun. Maybe a white camera isn't just a marketing ploy, after all.