[Hattifnatt]

Your calculation must be wrong.Odd is around 1% per drawing so 1% total as it is linear operation.

It's not wrong, I just forgot to multiply with 100 as UncleVanya said. Also this is assuming you somehow get a raffle in each one of the three giveaways.

This is basically a series of repeated independent events, so this is why the odds are a bit more than 1% (assuming you participate in all of them).

To calculate odds for something like this, you use the NO trick.

First draft there were 128 entries, so your chances of winning were 1/128. Your chances of NOT winning were 1-1/128 (so something around 0.992).

For the second draft there will be 300 entries, your chances of NOT winning would be 1-1/300. Same goes for the last draft.

To find out what is the probability of NOT winning any of those consecutive drawings, you just multiply the probabilities. Then you subtract the result from 1 and you get number that represents the probability of the opposite of not winning 3 times in a row, which is actually winning one of the drafts.

Just to make this clear, I think this giveaway is a terrific thing. I was not complaining in any way about the odds being low in my original post. I just thought it would be funny to know exactly what are the odds to win a K-1 in those 3 months ( that's IF you get in the raffle).

If the number of consecutive giveaways increases, your chances may increase significantly. For instance if there were 100 giveaways with the same mechanics and you take part in all of them, your chances of winning one are around 60%. Think about this way. You have a bag with 99 black balls and one white. If you get one out with your eyes closed, look at it and put it back chances to get the white one are slim. But if you repeat this a lot of times you will eventually get the white one.

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Last edited by Hattifnatt; 07-02-2018 at 07:48 AM.

[reh321]

but it is fun to participate and dream.

Our "type A" members seem to have missed this part.

[UncleVanya]

It's not wrong, I just forgot to multiply with 100 as UncleVanya said. Also this is assuming you somehow get a raffle in each one of the three giveaways.

This is basically a series of repeated independent events, so this is why the odds are a bit more than 1% (assuming you participate in all of them).

To calculate odds for something like this, you use the NO trick.

First draft there were 128 entries, so your chances of winning were 1/128. Your chances of NOT winning were 1-1/128 (so something around 0.992).

For the second draft there will be 300 entries, your chances of NOT winning would be 1-1/300. Same goes for the last draft.

To find out what is the probability of NOT winning any of those consecutive drawings, you just multiply the probabilities. Then you subtract the result from 1 and you get number that represents the probability of the opposite of not winning 3 times in a row, which is actually winning one of the drafts.

Just to make this clear, I think this giveaway is a terrific thing. I was not complaining in any way about the odds being low in my original post. I just thought it would be funny to know exactly what are the odds to win a K-1 in those 3 months ( that's IF you get in the raffle).

If the number of consecutive giveaways increases, your chances may increase significantly. For instance if there were 100 giveaways with the same mechanics and you take part in all of them, your chances of winning one are around 60%. Think about this way. You have a bag with 99 black balls and one white. If you get one out with your eyes closed, look at it and put it back chances to get the white one are slim. But if you repeat this a lot of times you will eventually get the white one.

Well I'm going to stop commenting on this math. I think I need to go review my probability texts again to remember... LOL

[reh321]

Well I'm going to stop commenting on this math. I think I need to go review my probability texts again to remember... LOL

The "odds" shouldn't be the important part. In state-run lotteries, people pay real money with wretched odds; this game is free .... so anything we get {like a free account upgrade} is a bonus.

Meanwhile, despite, or perhaps because of, all the grumping, this "raffle" has put new life into this place. We are doing much better, volumewise, than we did last month (*). Two months ago we had all kinds of grumping about the K-1ii and the K-30 .... but now most of the grumping seems to be directed towards the "raffle".


(*) None of the top three posters from June is in today's Top Ten as of this moment

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Last edited by reh321; 07-02-2018 at 08:28 AM. Reason: add asterisk comment

[Hattifnatt]

The "odds" shouldn't be the important part. In state-run lotteries, people pay real money with wretched odds; this game is free .... so anything we get {like a free account upgrade} is a bonus.

My original post about the odds was not intended to discourage people or to complain about the giveaway. I'm sorry if it was perceived like this. I think math is fun... of course I had more fun some 15 years ago when I was much "sharper". So there is a probability that my computations are not correct But I'm pretty sure they are.


For me this challenge was a lot of fun. I didn't try to post garbage just to boost the numbers, instead I pushed up a little bit my daily rate which may not be that high, but it's pretty constant (about 5 posts every day on average I guess for quite some time).

Of course I wanted very much to win and I still do. I already have a K-1 but right now I'm in a big financial crisis, since I had to move back from Norway to Romania. In practical terms, my salary is like 20 times smaller. I crave for the DFA 70-200mm but with this income it's just not possible. If i win the K-1, I will probably try to sell it and get the money for the 70-200. Or just sell it in order to avoid selling my first K-1 to pay the rent, who knows. Things are kinda going downhill here.


I cannot say I'm a big fan of the current giveaway format, but you just can't please everybody. I guess this format attracts a lot of new users, maybe some of them will remain here after the giveaway and bring some value to the community. This forum is really addictive

[Mikesul]

Math kills: )

[fsge]

It's not wrong, I just forgot to multiply with 100 as UncleVanya said. Also this is assuming you somehow get a raffle in each one of the three giveaways.

This is basically a series of repeated independent events, so this is why the odds are a bit more than 1% (assuming you participate in all of them).

To calculate odds for something like this, you use the NO trick.

First draft there were 128 entries, so your chances of winning were 1/128. Your chances of NOT winning were 1-1/128 (so something around 0.992).

For the second draft there will be 300 entries, your chances of NOT winning would be 1-1/300. Same goes for the last draft.

To find out what is the probability of NOT winning any of those consecutive drawings, you just multiply the probabilities. Then you subtract the result from 1 and you get number that represents the probability of the opposite of not winning 3 times in a row, which is actually winning one of the drafts.

Just to make this clear, I think this giveaway is a terrific thing. I was not complaining in any way about the odds being low in my original post. I just thought it would be funny to know exactly what are the odds to win a K-1 in those 3 months ( that's IF you get in the raffle).

If the number of consecutive giveaways increases, your chances may increase significantly. For instance if there were 100 giveaways with the same mechanics and you take part in all of them, your chances of winning one are around 60%. Think about this way. You have a bag with 99 black balls and one white. If you get one out with your eyes closed, look at it and put it back chances to get the white one are slim. But if you repeat this a lot of times you will eventually get the white one.

Well I dont get your calculation, it is too late here and there are too many words for a probability based problem. I was just trying to have a ballpark number assuming there are 2x50 people selected between whom the lucky winner will be drawn (the fact that there were 128 selected is an outlier imo, it doesnt change much in terms of rough number); also having three identical rounds was implied assumption.
I dont get your 300 entries for second draft ? That was not how Adam described it or was there a change of scenario since first presentation of the raffle?

[mee]

You're not really losing because there is nothing at stake really then the time you spend staring at the screen and tapping and clicking the minutes away. Certainly nothing at all for those with plenty of free time at hand. Like us semi-retired/retired old farts or un/under-employed marketing/camera/lens/optical/software designer/experts who pontificate/proselytize endlessly on how Ricoh would knock out all the competition by merely following their suggestions.

In the amount of time spent trying to win this camera over the summer, any non disabled retired person could have gotten a part time job and earned the money to 100% guarantee a K-1 in their hands.

But admit it, you old guys especially love to argue subjective fine points that don't really matter to anyone else as if they do and one up each other.. the news and rumors section thrives on it. Most times I find it tedious but sometimes it gets interesting..


The camera contest has least broken some of the monotony here. And I'm seeing more new 'faces'.. that's nice.

[Hattifnatt]

Well I dont get your calculation, it is too late here and there are too many words for a probability based problem. I was just trying to have a ballpark number assuming there are 2x50 people selected between whom the lucky winner will be drawn (the fact that there were 128 selected is an outlier imo, it doesnt change much in terms of rough number); also having three identical rounds was implied assumption.I dont get your 300 entries for second draft ? That was not how Adam described it or was there a change of scenario since first presentation of the raffle?

For the next draft Adam said there will be 4 threads with first 75 people getting raffles in each thread, so this means if you manage to get the raffle, you have 1/300 chance of winning.

What am I actually doing is calculating the probability of not winning any of the three consecutive giveaways. Since every giveaway is independent from the others, this is done by multiplying the three probabilities for not winning. Then all I have to do is subtract from 1 and I get the chances of this not happening. Since the event I'm considering is not winning, "not happening" means winning one of the giveaways at some point.

[beachgardener]

The end of July is closing in, with just over 9,000 posts to go I think the forum needs to get cracking to make at least the 40,000 mark

[aslyfox]

. . . was there a change of scenario since first presentation of the raffle?

current rules of contest as summarized by Adam:



To recap:
The community must reach 40,000 posts each month
At that point, 4 threads will be created 6 hours apart, and the first 75 posters in each will get a raffle entry
Raffle participants must have at least 10 forum posts in the month of the raffle
The winner is drawn at random, and we will ship a K-1 to the winner
If the community reaches 55,000 by the end of the month, the prize gets upgraded to a K-1 II



Read more at: Pentax K-1 Triple Giveaway: Summer 2018 - Giveaways and Events | PentaxForums.com

[reh321]

The end of July is closing in, with just over 9,000 posts to go I think the forum needs to get cracking to make at least the 40,000 mark

As of this moment, we need 9085 more posts; today is July 23 .... after today there will be 8 days left in July. If nothing else were posted today, we would need 9085 / 8 = 1135.625 posts each remaining day. We have done more than that most days in July. Please do not panic.





{this counts}

[UncleVanya]

As of this moment, we need 9085 more posts; today is July 23 .... after today there will be 8 days left in July. If nothing else were posted today, we would need 9085 / 8 = 1135.625 posts each remaining day. We have done more than that most days in July. Please do not panic.






{this counts}

Run in circles scream and shout...

Panic is a good motivator

[aslyfox]

Run in circles scream and shout...

Panic is a good motivator

speaking for myself, and perhaps one or two or more other members of the forums

there is a need for more physical activity in life

so go ahead and run around in a circle

screaming and shouting, though, may not be the best course of action

and a suggestion when you stop for a break

post to the forums in a qualifying way:

. . . {this counts}

[codru]

We're getting there soon