Originally posted by NZ_Ross What is clear to me is that interchangeable lens cameras are going to become increasing niche, specialist and for very specific use cases. For everything else you will use your phone camera.
I agree 'on an infinite time scale' to borrow a phrase. We could already argue (and many do) that ILCs are niche today, but I think there are two areas where phone cameras need to make huge advancements to catch up — focal length and resolving power.
Today's announcements from 'that fruit company' pushed the "telephoto" range out to 77mm (equivalent) which suggests before long they will exceed 100mm and that's where I think a LOT of the focal length battle will have been won, despite people like me wanting ever more.
But the resolving power is the more interesting one. In my personal experience, iPhones are pretty terrible when it comes to resolving colour and detail. The photos may look punchy and amazing on smaller screens but you don't have to look too closely to see their weakness. Maybe they can overcome yet more of this with computational tricks, but they've already had to apply a
lot of that to get where they are.
One niche I see remaining for some time yet is for people who want to take photos of "things you can't touch". That's a generalisation I use, but I am referring to a bird in a tree, a plane on a runway, a racer on a track, a ship in the harbour, etc. These are things you cannot "just get closer to" and require one or both of the above traits to capture.
When I make these arguments in various fora, I am often met with "but most people..." as a response, and that is hard to deny. But then I wonder... would "most people" have used cameras at all in the pre-smart phone days? I think not, in which case the addressable market for "real cameras" probably isn't a whole lot different now to what it was then. What's changed is the number of people who take photos because it is so easy.