[NZ_Ross]

Today's announcements from 'that fruit company' pushed the "telephoto" range out to 77mm (equivalent) which suggests before long they will exceed 100mm and that's where I think a LOT of the focal length battle will have been won, despite people like me wanting ever more.

Some years ago from memory Canon (I think) published a study that showed the most popular focal lengths used in hundreds of thousands of photos were 24mm-90mm. So the smart phones nearly have that covered, and will iterate to cover up to 100mm in the next few years as you observe.

One niche I see remaining for some time yet is for people who want to take photos of "things you can't touch". That's a generalisation I use, but I am referring to a bird in a tree, a plane on a runway, a racer on a track, a ship in the harbour, etc. These are things you cannot "just get closer to" and require one or both of the above traits to capture.

Definitely.

I think not, in which case the addressable market for "real cameras" probably isn't a whole lot different now to what it was then. What's changed is the number of people who take photos because it is so easy.

There has been plenty of commentary that the ILC market will return to roughly the same level it was in the film days. Canon a few years ago predicted a total annual market of 5-6 million units. That has proven to be reasonably accurate. I think it will stabilise somewhere around those numbers, perhaps a bit lower. ILC camera buyers will be Pro's, Filmmakers, and higher end amateur users who want the flexibility and niche abilities of ILC's. Everyone else is going to use phone cameras. Inevitably manufacturers will build to these lower numbers and more specialised markets. Costs per unit will be higher, as there will be less units to recover R&D from. Ricoh/Pentax strategy has transitioned reasonably well to these new market realities and still makes sense, particularly providing combining excellent optical viewfinders with very good sensors in robust camera bodies.

---------- Post added 15-09-21 at 09:13 PM ----------

Except for filming on your motorbike.

...although I suspect it wouldn't be too good for a DSLR either.

Maybe a GoPro?

GoPro or a camera phone on a very good gimbal

[GUB]

I am only bugged by phone cameras when some idiot pokes the tiny screen in my face and says - "see it takes great pictures".
Otherwise they are totally valid cameras with a massive advantage of being surgically attached to their luny followers at all times. No point seeing a great shot when your dslr is home in the drawer!.
And they seem to have an equal disadvantage of permanently having a greasy finger print over the lens due to these same luny operators.
Multiple times in the evolution of photography low quality convenience has won out over quality. 120film to 35mm , damn never in focus instamatics - horrible 110s. now cellphones.
But all that is a bit pompous coz when I think of my own image archives most of my most important images (invariably family) are from these cheapos coz they were what we had -what we could afford - and were there.

[Kiwizinho]

I am only bugged by phone cameras when some idiot pokes the tiny screen in my face and says - "see it takes great pictures".

...which typically end up getting lost, discarded, never looked at again, unless they involve embarrassing compromising situations, in which case they live on forever on social media, or at least as long as each social platform is able to monetise other people's intellectual property.

I actually wonder what archivists are going to do in 100 years. Sure, old photos, cyanotypes etc, are fragile, and could easily be lost forever, but they're still around over 100 years since they were made, but with mobile phones with a life expectancy under 3 years, and many people pretty casual about security of their cloud accounts, or backing up their devices, I think rather than worrying about the quality of the cameras, I worry more about how many images will be around in the future.
Mind you, I know plenty of people in the local camera club who've spent up far more than me on camera equipment, and yet a decent computer or backup system is an afterthought.

[Kiwi645hauler]

I am only bugged by phone cameras when some idiot pokes the tiny screen in my face and says - "see it takes great pictures".

My typical response is what does it look like printed or even a large TV screen/projection screen. Another fun question to ask is blow it up to 100% or larger and lets see the quality at a pixel level.

Pre Covid, a friend used to go on about how everyone uses a phone and only dinasaurs like me use a proper camera... so walking around Dunedin when Cruise ships were in i used to love pointing out the sheer numbers of proper cameras being used, and it was easiily 70+ % of the tourists had cameras, and the vast majority of those were some form of ILC, from compact Mirrorless to i sat and watched one tourist with a 645Z and 67 on his shoulders... that must have been a heavy day trip in the end

---------- Post added 09-15-21 at 03:30 PM ----------

...which typically end up getting lost, discarded, never looked at again, unless they involve embarrassing compromising situations, in which case they live on forever on social media, or at least as long as each social platform is able to monetise other people's intellectual property.

I actually wonder what archivists are going to do in 100 years. Sure, old photos, cyanotypes etc, are fragile, and could easily be lost forever, but they're still around over 100 years since they were made, but with mobile phones with a life expectancy under 3 years, and many people pretty casual about security of their cloud accounts, or backing up their devices, I think rather than worrying about the quality of the cameras, I worry more about how many images will be around in the future.
Mind you, I know plenty of people in the local camera club who've spent up far more than me on camera equipment, and yet a decent computer or backup system is an afterthought.

It is just astounding how many people have no idea about back ups, personally i generally change my back up drives every couple of years... new externals and make the required backups, give one to my dad, one to my brother, claim the old drives back, smash the old ones or reformat the best one and start again sure its been expensive, but im my thoughts worth it knowing that knock on wood so far i havent had an external drive failure because of regular changes.
The major consideration is the actual file formats, what are they going to look like in 15 years let alone 50 or 100, are current formats going to be readable/usable in 15 years

[GUB]

My typical response is what does it look like printed or even a large TV screen/projection screen. Another fun question to ask is blow it up to 100% or larger and lets see the quality at a pixel level.

Pre Covid, a friend used to go on about how everyone uses a phone and only dinasaurs like me use a proper camera... so walking around Dunedin when Cruise ships were in i used to love pointing out the sheer numbers of proper cameras being used, and it was easiily 70+ % of the tourists had cameras, and the vast majority of those were some form of ILC, from compact Mirrorless to i sat and watched one tourist with a 645Z and 67 on his shoulders... that must have been a heavy day trip in the end

---------- Post added 09-15-21 at 03:30 PM ----------



It is just astounding how many people have no idea about back ups, personally i generally change my back up drives every couple of years... new externals and make the required backups, give one to my dad, one to my brother, claim the old drives back, smash the old ones or reformat the best one and start again sure its been expensive, but im my thoughts worth it knowing that knock on wood so far i havent had an external drive failure because of regular changes.
The major consideration is the actual file formats, what are they going to look like in 15 years let alone 50 or 100, are current formats going to be readable/usable in 15 years

What surprised me when I did a bit of research on this recently for my club was that for archival ssd wasn't a runner. And some are putting cds still as an option. All my old 35mm archives are scanned and one backup is gold archival cds (plus a brand new cd player still in it's wrap).

[Kiwi645hauler]

What surprised me when I did a bit of research on this recently for my club was that for archival ssd wasn't a runner. And some are putting cds still as an option. All my old 35mm archives are scanned and one backup is gold archival cds (plus a brand new cd player still in it's wrap).

I think the big thing for SSD's is they are still relatively expensive for the capacities available compared to HDD, I stopped using CD/DVD/BluRay ages ago, even the gold archives can be easily damaged with scratches that render the disc useless. I initially replaced Optical Discs with USB Sticks, i had a collection of about 25 - 30 sticks of 1GB each with projects on each stick, but the logging for archives was horrendous and i did lose a couple of sticks, thankfully the projects on them were not important and there was nothing ive missed.
I do have some cloud storage, and again, what has been stored in the cloud are images that are not super important or copies of edited images that its easy to access if showing people.

[GUB]

I think the big thing for SSD's is they are still relatively expensive for the capacities available compared to HDD, I stopped using CD/DVD/BluRay ages ago, even the gold archives can be easily damaged with scratches that render the disc useless. I initially replaced Optical Discs with USB Sticks, i had a collection of about 25 - 30 sticks of 1GB each with projects on each stick, but the logging for archives was horrendous and i did lose a couple of sticks, thankfully the projects on them were not important and there was nothing ive missed.
I do have some cloud storage, and again, what has been stored in the cloud are images that are not super important or copies of edited images that its easy to access if showing people.

Well that is the thing - the usb sticks are going to be as bad or worse than ssd.
https://www.pcworld.com/article/2921590/death-and-the-unplugged-ssd-how-much...liability.html
Looking at M Discs at the mo - anyone had experience with them?
M Disc
And to clarify - yes they are only 25GB and my data is in TBs but I need to identify the core premium data anyway. Too much of my good stuff is lost in the chaff.

[Kiwi645hauler]

Well that is the thing - the usb sticks are going to be as bad or worse than ssd.
Death and the unplugged SSD: How much you really need to worry about data retention | PCWorld
Looking at M Discs at the mo - anyone had experience with them?
M Disc
And to clarify - yes they are only 25GB and my data is in TBs but I need to identify the core premium data anyway. Too much of my good stuff is lost in the chaff.

No experience with the MDisc, looks like they are a new variant of DVD/BluRay with a different Data storage layer. I will have to do some research myself, but initial look may be promising. The one big thing is devices like laptops are less and less getting optical drives factory installed, i know i am looking for a new laptop, and even at the budget i am looking around the vast majority have no CD/DVD drive. On checking the compatible drives, their own website shows a grand total of 6 LG drives compatible with the tech

[GUB]

No experience with the MDisc, looks like they are a new variant of DVD/BluRay with a different Data storage layer. I will have to do some research myself, but initial look may be promising. The one big thing is devices like laptops are less and less getting optical drives factory installed, i know i am looking for a new laptop, and even at the budget i am looking around the vast majority have no CD/DVD drive. On checking the compatible drives, their own website shows a grand total of 6 LG drives compatible with the tech

There is a good range of Blue Ray burners on Mazin . Typical pathetic NZ stock.
The M disc claim is pretty amazing - still doing research tho.
It is important to realise that cd/dvd is no longer a mainstream "convenient" item.
This archival purpose is separate and if as it appears M Disc is one of the better options then the gear may get rarer and more expensive but will still have a core base.

[GUB]

Micscape Microscopy and Microscope Magazine

[Kiwi645hauler]

There is a good range of Blue Ray burners on Mazin . Typical pathetic NZ stock.
The M disc claim is pretty amazing - still doing research tho.
It is important to realise that cd/dvd is no longer a mainstream "convenient" item.
This archival purpose is separate and if as it appears M Disc is one of the better options then the gear may get rarer and more expensive but will still have a core base.

Looking at the info on the MDisc site they have certified 6 LG drives, and i am wondering if there is a requirement in terms of laser and read speeds etc to meet the MDisc specs to be able to use them in a BluRay or DVD writer for the space considerations

[GUB]

Naa go to home page and click drive compatibility. More than 6.
But the site and the tech seems a little old - I think any modern mainstream blue ray will burn them (perhaps)
Oh and I see there is 100 gb discs. They need a more specific burner ( amazon.com: BUFFALO MediaStation 16x Desktop BDXL Blu-Ray Writer (BRXL-16U3) : Everything Else?tag=pentaxforums-20& )
Seeing m disc has been around for a while I would have thought I would have heard more of them as an option.

[Kiwizinho]

The major consideration is the actual file formats, what are they going to look like in 15 years let alone 50 or 100, are current formats going to be readable/usable in 15 years

That, at least, is one issue I'm not quite so worried about. In spite of numerous efforts to replace it, jpg has been around since the 1990s, and it doesn't look like it's going anywhere.
I'm not sure about DNG, as although it is an open standard to a point, raw data tends to vary from maker to maker. My mobile phone can capture DNG natively, however whereas Lightroom and PhotoLab recognise Pentax DNGs, DNGs from my phone end up as an almost unrecognisable mess that are worse than jpgs from the same phone.
I guess I could try an open source raw processor like RawTherapee or Darktable and see if they work any better, but I'd be cautious about anything that contains proprietary data.
I do need to remember to export my images as full size 100% quality jpgs, when I'm done with adjusting them, as that's probably the safest way to ensure they will be accessible in future.

[NZ_Ross]

My understanding re JPG's is that HEIC's are in the process of slowly replacing them as the format of choice

[Kiwizinho]

Seeing m disc has been around for a while I would have thought I would have heard more of them as an option.

M-Disks have been around a while now, and pretty much any new CD/DVD/Blu-Ray burner should be able to handle them if it's any good.

I have a book by a local wedding/portrait photographer about how she runs her business, and in it she mentions using a combination of optical and electronic backup so that images are backed up not only multiple times, but stored on multiple technologies.
Optical write once disks have an advantage against ransomware.

---------- Post added 09-16-21 at 03:24 PM ----------

My understanding re JPG's is that HEIC's are in the process of slowly replacing them as the format of choice

It looks like HEICs may supercede jpgs but jpgs aren't likely to go away. gifs are a pretty antiquated format with a lot of limitations, but since they support animation, they still seem to have plenty of life left in them.

The thing with jpgs is that even lowly Windows 3.1 could open them. I can remember the dramas of installing graphics drivers on that so that photos would display in full colour. Of course back then, they were pretty small.

I've found a few jpg scans dating back to 1997, and I may even have some older ones lurking somewhere, although generally I've replaced them with newer ones done with a better scanner and software.