I have used the 645D since 2011 and the main reasons I want to upgrade to the 645Z is the live view, improved dynamic range and to a lesser degree the high ISO options. The biggest culprit to missing images on the 645D is the autofocus. The unreliability in getting 100% perfect auto focus is also the reason the shutter actuations get used up as quick as they do. I typically have to shoot 2 or 3 frames to be "safe" that one of them is sharp. This is especially true for the 25mm DA lens at certain distances. I print large (see below), so every little focussing error shows up.
Outside of that, I think at base ISO, on most scenes the differences between the Z and D will be minimal. The body has a proven form factor, is very reliable, and I trust it over my A7r which died on me in Antarctica after less than two months of use. The files out of the 645D are a lot more stable when doing lightroom adjustments than the sony files. Things like the occasional banding and purple rings on overcast skies is what makes the compressed, pre-cooked raw files out of the sony less than ideal in large prints. What Pentax really needs is more lenses that are in the class of the 90mm 2.8.