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It seems to me that Pentax is wholly dependent on Sony (or someone like them) to supply sensor chips for the 645, so a new or full-frame sensor will hinge on whether Sony (or someone like them) has one that's available to Pentax for a workable sum.
Current reviews are suggesting that the 645z sensor is a bit behind the state of the art, as embodied in, say, the Nikon D850. But not so much that the regular full-frame sensors really surpass them--it still makes up in size and resolution what the others add in high-ISO performance.
So, an update might not use a different chip, or need to. I'm thinking a refresh, not a whole new generation. So, a 645zII, rather than a 645w or whatever.
But there are some features that would be nice, and that could be implemented in the camera with perhaps just a processor upgrade and newer software:
1. Better video, for those who care about it. The Leica S has 4K video, and there's no reason Pentax can't provide that. I personally don't care about that, and hope it doesn't be the great that is the enemy of the good. But it's discriminating for some people. Doing it would probably require another processor generation more than another sensor generation.
2. IBIS. This is not a new technology for Pentax. IBIS would couple with strong high-ISO performance to minimize the need for faster lenses for reasons other than selective focus.
3. Electronic first-curtain opening would make using live view more fun and less noisy.
4. WiFi, but only if they are going to do it right. I just spent a frustrating two hours trying to make it work on my wife's new Nikon D500, and it made me wonder if anyone at Nikon had ever actually used the feature. It was hopelessly unreliable--a new iPhone 8 could never establish WiFi contact using the Nikon app after two hours of hassle. We gave up--having the feature just wasn't worth it. A FlashAir or similar would be better. If Pentax can't do better than a Toshiba FlashAir, then don't try.
5. Photo-editing software that does what Capture One does. They already have the tethering software, but that should be part of the package. The editing part could be its own profit center, serving all Pentax users and not just 645z users. I'd pay for it to avoid paying rent to Adobe, if it had a reasonable workflow and good color management.
Lenses are a big topic in addition to a body refresh, but the new range of $5000 lenses that some seem to want will undermine the system. Part of what makes it popular is the availability of affordable lenses. Pentax will be unwilling to invest in a whole line of new lenses, or even real updates of older lenses, as long as the secondary market is overflowing with affordable pre-owned lenses.
Their approach to bringing out new lenses has been pretty smart, it seems to me, despite a bit of bad luck with respect to the 25. They are targeting use cases not well served by the secondary market. Those use cases are: Architectural, product, event, and portrait photography--those areas where pros are still paid to do photography. I don't include sports and journalism, which have lower image quality requirements and are already well served by smaller formats in ways impractical in medium format.
They have targeted product photographers with a shorter and even better macro lens to the existing 120, which complements rather than supplants the existing 120. I'm not sure anything else is needed there. A tilt lens would be nice but most jewelry photographers are using focus stacking anyway, I suspect, unless they specifically want selective focus as an artistic effect.
They started out with an ultra-wide with the 25, but they have supply problems with the key parts of that lens. The 28-45 addresses a lot of the need for shorter lenses, in my view, and though I can't afford it, it is by all reports an excellent lens. If fills a gap in the line, and doesn't compete with the secondary market. But right now, architectural photographers are using small view cameras with Phase One backs, which is terrifyingly expensive and demanding of time and technique. Simply having a good wide doesn't completely solve their problem. The high-end specialists won't worry about the cost of, say, an Arca M2 with an IQ260 back, but pros who are asked to do the occasional architectural work will not be so equipped. Those pros use Canon bodies with Canon TSE lenses, or they (shudder) repair perspective distortion in software. But architectural photos are often reproduced in large sizes--hence the 5DS. Pentax could add value to the line with a 30-35mm shift lens. That's a shorter focal length with respect to the format than was the 75mm shift lens for the 67 system, which always attracted the complaint that it was too long.
The 45-85 is a killer lens for weddings, in my view, despite being a bit slow (and being fast would make the thing weigh a ton). Between the 35, 55 and 75, those wanting wide apertures are well served, but I never used f/2.8 in weddings except for artistic effect. I did all my weddings back in the day on film on a Mamiya TLR using 80mm and 55mm lenses (normal and wide). Pros will use the 645z for the portraits, set shots and altar returns, but they'll still use a fast small-format camera for the "journalism". My wife and I have worked that way--she with her Nikon D300 and me with my Canon 5D (or the 645NII with the 45-85 when we were still doing film).
The line needs a fast portrait lens. The 75/2.8 is a bit too short, in my view. The 90 Macro is a better focal length, but it's optimized for macro. One option might be to repurpose the 105/2.4 from the 67 line into an AF, weather-sealed portrait lens. But a new 100/2 would be even better. Use a Sonnar design. I currently have the 75/2.8 leaf-shutter lens which is what I used with film for 3/4 portraits and group shots. So, add a leaf shutter to that 100/2, but maintain autofocus and aperture. As with the existing LS lenses, one can lock the leaf shutter open and use it with the focal-plane shutter.
Pros also do sports, but I can't imagine any sports photographer using medium format. The system already has good long primes in the 300 and 400mm ED(IF) lenses, and I don't think much more is needed there, except maybe for weather-sealing.
Filling just a few gaps would make the 645z a go-to pro camera. it's already that for many--it doesn't need to go much further beyond just keeping up.
Rick "and an upgrade program would seal the deal" Denney
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