Originally posted by mattdm The difference between the two will continue to shrink, and both will be above a certain bar, making the expense and size overhead of the larger format less and less attractive.
The same situation existed at the height of the film era. MF did not go away then because any advances in 35mm film technology were easily tranlated to 120 and 220 film. The same exact situation exists with with between digital 35mm (APS-C & FF) and digital MF now. There will always be photographers and organizations (landscape and fashion) that will want the much higher quality level of MF. As long as such a quality difference exists, they will keep buying DMF equipment. Furthermore, the quality difference will continue to exist because any advance in 35mm sensors are easily translatable to digital MF and vice versa at least until the photosites get so small that other issues crop up. In that case, the quality difference will probably freeze in place and pixel counts will stabilize. Either that or people will realize that they're outresolving their lenses or have potential print sizes measured in feet or meters.
If anything, the lower price of DMF will allow the more affluent photographers and organizations that were limited to the smaller format 35mm by the DMF price barrier to buy into a DMF system (Pentax 645D). The analogy would be to think of the 645D as a "gateway" to the higher quality of the DMF world. Furthermore, the price competition will force the higher end DMF players to release more affordable lower end models to stave off the competition. I believe that the lower price of the 645D will help to stabilize the DMF market just as the film 645N and NII once acted as the "budget" models of the MF world. Hasselblad and Mamiya should be thankful for the 645D's introduction. I believe that their own pricing practices were forcing some organizations and photographers to go for the more affordable "D35mm" format.
Of course, there will always be those affluent photographers that will insist on having the best equipment that they can afford. It might not be a Blad or something, but the 645D is a DMF. It might not have an interchangeable back, but at that price point, One can just buy the successor as long as it is around the same price at introduction.
This camera is not for everyone. It seems to be aimed more for those who would love to purchase a DMF camera, cannot afford a DMF camera, but can afford something like the Canon 1DS series cameras. Those photographers would be the ones who do not need ultra high frame rates, but do need features that have been the traditional strengths and advantages of DMF like potential higher image quality.
One of the things that really appeals to me is the apparent ruggedness and portability of this camera compared to other DMFs. It's weathersealed!!! Couple that with a set of weathersealed primes, and I could take this camera right up to the base of Bridal Veil Falls in the spring...
EDIT: Although this camera is "relatively affordable" compared to DMFs, it's not easily affordable for someone like me. I figure that I will have to save up for a year or so before I can purchase this camera and the (hopefully forthcoming) weather sealed UWA prime for it. I would love to take this camera out for some landscape photos, ultra high res stitching, and some senior photography. I'm sure there are other photogs that are thinking the same thing, just as there photogs that this camera will serve no useful purpose for (just as it was in the film era)...