Originally posted by Eigengrau Asking for the magic number, I'd warrant that $1800 will be right about on. $1000 is ludicrous - the K-7 listed for more than that initially. Pentax will probably be competing largely with the Sony A850 - both smaller players in the market, both new to full frames, both using internal stabilization (I'm assuming). They usually match or beat their competitors in terms of price. So, I'd expect something that is pretty close price-wise to the A850 (although I certainly hope it beats it in other regards).
Having a couple of K20's and a K7, I would sell gear and dip into savings and do all manner of things to get my hands on a FF Pentax, assuming it did the things I want (Better sensitivity, DR, viewfinder, and AF). Also, Pentax's history of camera pricing means that an $1800 body will likely be available for half that after about a year. FF at a grand would be pretty exciting indeed.
Also, FF is compelling not just for the immediate advantages it confers, but because it promises to beat APS-C in performance over the long term. It is basically a physical inevitability: more photons = better photographs. Being able to use FF glass as intended and invest in it confidently for the future would be valuable to many.
I, too, would peg the $1,800 price, MSRP, with a 15% drop over the first 18 months. It's street price could well be below $1,500 just prior to V.2.
In 5 years FF will be $1,000, and will be in EVIL in 5-7 years.
The Yen is pegged to fall soon. That will help.
Sony isn't the main competitor. Current Pentax customers with glass investments, willing to spend more, are the competition, because if they do not see a roadmap, they compete by taking their biz to Canikon. There is a rumour that the D700 will be updated, but true to past Nikon practises, will stay in the market at a lower price point. Nikon can really leverage a body for the duration. Canon's caught on and is doing the same. I still see Xs's on sale, new, for very low prices. I see Pentax having to play that game as well. Watch the K-x compete with a plummeting price.