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07-21-2010, 05:24 PM   #226
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QuoteOriginally posted by Eigengrau Quote
Asking for the magic number, I'd warrant that $1800 will be right about on. $1000 is ludicrous - the K-7 listed for more than that initially. Pentax will probably be competing largely with the Sony A850 - both smaller players in the market, both new to full frames, both using internal stabilization (I'm assuming). They usually match or beat their competitors in terms of price. So, I'd expect something that is pretty close price-wise to the A850 (although I certainly hope it beats it in other regards).

Having a couple of K20's and a K7, I would sell gear and dip into savings and do all manner of things to get my hands on a FF Pentax, assuming it did the things I want (Better sensitivity, DR, viewfinder, and AF). Also, Pentax's history of camera pricing means that an $1800 body will likely be available for half that after about a year. FF at a grand would be pretty exciting indeed.

Also, FF is compelling not just for the immediate advantages it confers, but because it promises to beat APS-C in performance over the long term. It is basically a physical inevitability: more photons = better photographs. Being able to use FF glass as intended and invest in it confidently for the future would be valuable to many.
I, too, would peg the $1,800 price, MSRP, with a 15% drop over the first 18 months. It's street price could well be below $1,500 just prior to V.2.

In 5 years FF will be $1,000, and will be in EVIL in 5-7 years.

The Yen is pegged to fall soon. That will help.

Sony isn't the main competitor. Current Pentax customers with glass investments, willing to spend more, are the competition, because if they do not see a roadmap, they compete by taking their biz to Canikon. There is a rumour that the D700 will be updated, but true to past Nikon practises, will stay in the market at a lower price point. Nikon can really leverage a body for the duration. Canon's caught on and is doing the same. I still see Xs's on sale, new, for very low prices. I see Pentax having to play that game as well. Watch the K-x compete with a plummeting price.

07-22-2010, 04:36 AM   #227
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Full frame is probably different, but the feeling that I have gotten with regard to the K7 is that it really didn't sell terribly well until its price dropped below 1000 dollars. The same was true of the K20. Most of those cameras were sold at the end of the cycle when prices were rock bottom, between 600 and 900 dollars. So, if Pentax released a full frame at 1800 dollars, there are a few who would jump on it as early adopters, but there would be an awful lot that would wait for it to get down to a lower number.
07-22-2010, 06:58 AM   #228
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I've never paid north of $800 for a DSLR body. If the full frame hit it out of the park, I might, but the thought of purchasing a K-7 never crossed my mind until I started seeing it for $750. DSLR bodies depreciate like computers, and it is hard to justify the introductory prices unless there is something radically different about the technology.
07-22-2010, 10:53 AM   #229
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
Full frame is probably different, but the feeling that I have gotten with regard to the K7 is that it really didn't sell terribly well until its price dropped below 1000 dollars. The same was true of the K20. Most of those cameras were sold at the end of the cycle when prices were rock bottom, between 600 and 900 dollars. So, if Pentax released a full frame at 1800 dollars, there are a few who would jump on it as early adopters, but there would be an awful lot that would wait for it to get down to a lower number.
I'm not sure about that presumption since the A850 which is the cheapest FF available, 5D mk II, and D700 never hit below 1,000 dollars, yet Pentaxians still bought these more expensive cameras. if budget is an issue, I believe they will find a way to purchase such camera either by saving money for a couple of months or selling other items and camera gears like cameras and other lenses inorder to finance a purchase. that's what purchasing a FF dslr is all about. it's an expenditure although if Pentax comes out with a bargain FF dlsr, that would be more on how Pentax is marketing it's item. the annual significant price drop IMO is a marketing strategy that is implemented by Pentax to start a trend and entice others of buying what is left over for the year. it could be somewhat like an inventory sale although I believe Pentax would still earn while selling at those rock bottom price.

07-22-2010, 12:25 PM   #230
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pentaxor Quote
...yet Pentaxians still bought these more expensive cameras. if budget is an issue, I believe they will find a way to purchase such camera either by saving money for a couple of months or selling other items and camera gears like cameras and other lenses inorder to finance a purchase. that's what purchasing a FF dslr is all about.
But there just aren't enough of these "Pentaxians"! At current FF price level, even 5D II and D700 are not sold in big numbers; but Canon and Nikon can command healthy profit margins.

Some may turn a blind eye on potential sales projection on traditional Canikon : Pentax sales ratio, but the numbers are not pretty. Sure, if Pentax can come up with a super cheap price which blows everyone away, it will sell; but it does not make sense to sacrifice profit margin, which is the whole point of moving upscale and high end (and which Hoya has put major emphasis on). And there will be risky financial commitment of starting a new lens line which would expected to be low volume sellers for some time.
07-22-2010, 01:22 PM   #231
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QuoteOriginally posted by nosnoop Quote
But there just aren't enough of these "Pentaxians"! At current FF price level, even 5D II and D700 are not sold in big numbers; but Canon and Nikon can command healthy profit margins.

Some may turn a blind eye on potential sales projection on traditional Canikon : Pentax sales ratio, but the numbers are not pretty. Sure, if Pentax can come up with a super cheap price which blows everyone away, it will sell; but it does not make sense to sacrifice profit margin, which is the whole point of moving upscale and high end (and which Hoya has put major emphasis on). And there will be risky financial commitment of starting a new lens line which would expected to be low volume sellers for some time.
I believe Pentax had already done that when they released the 645D. the number of existing Pentaxians may not be enough to generate a lot of profit for Pentax if they come out with a FF dlsr, much more so with the new higher end and much more expensive MF camera. I believe that Pentax is also looking at the potential of the product in the market and enticing new customers. Pentax could compete with Canikon pricewise, providing that such FF dslr has more something to offer or has a unique design and function that the other FF dslrs dont offer. if not, then the $1500-$1,800 would be the selling point of the FF dslr.
07-22-2010, 01:54 PM   #232
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pentaxor Quote
I believe Pentax had already done that when they released the 645D. the number of existing Pentaxians may not be enough to generate a lot of profit for Pentax if they come out with a FF dlsr, much more so with the new higher end and much more expensive MF camera.
MF is a completely different type of market. You can charge a much higher price premium and get a much higher profit margin than FF. So you can sell in very low volume and still make a profit. The same profit margins apply for the expensive MF lenses too, and you don't need to develop as many lenses for a start up system. In addition, there is no existing dominant player in 645D's niche segment.

QuoteQuote:
Pentax could compete with Canikon pricewise, providing that such FF dslr has more something to offer or has a unique design and function that the other FF dslrs dont offer.
That is a lot to ask for... and easier said than done.
I can't think of any compelling & unique design which can entice Canikon users away from their 5D II and D700 (and their successors).
And you have to do at an affordable pricing too!
07-22-2010, 04:03 PM   #233
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QuoteOriginally posted by nosnoop Quote
That is a lot to ask for... and easier said than done.
I can't think of any compelling & unique design which can entice Canikon users away from their 5D II and D700 (and their successors).
And you have to do at an affordable pricing too!
a mirrorless concept could be one. such concept could bring about increase fps, silent shutter and much more lens adapter friendly mounting and compactness as well. the other strong selling point of Pentax is it's glasses as well. for sure Canikon users would be glad to use AF and A setting on those Pentax lenses rather than having to shave off the lens.

I for one am reluctantly enticed to get a 5D II. I'm sure I'll be able to get some of those L Lenses, but I would miss out on the LTD's and legendary Pentax lenses.

07-23-2010, 12:55 PM   #234
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At the crossroads...

I can understand Pentax not announcing a camera before it is released so sales of a current model are not affected.

However.

I am at a point where I would like to move to Full Frame and it would be nice to know if Pentax is planning for a camera to fill this need.

I love my K10D. It is getting old, the K7 is great but I don't want to continue down a dead end road and eliminate my options in the future.

I've used a friends Canon 20D and 5D mkII and it doesn't come close to the well thought out design and interface of my Pentax. Nikon seems better in my experience with the D300.

If there is no hint of something FF in the next few months I will probably be moving to Nikon D700 or 800(?)
07-23-2010, 01:18 PM   #235
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QuoteOriginally posted by oppositz Quote
I am at a point where I would like to move to Full Frame and it would be nice to know if Pentax is planning for a camera to fill this need....If there is no hint of something FF in the next few months I will probably be moving to Nikon D700 or 800(?)
Ya never know what's coming down the pike. I had a friend who used Pentax, but jumped to Nikon because he wanted "the good glass". He was wanting a wide zoom. Of course, no sooner had he sold his Pentax gear and bought a Nikon with a Sigma 10-20mm zoom...than Pentax came out with the K10D (which had more megapixels than his Nikon) and the 12-24mm zoom.
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