FF sales will continue to grow as prices fall. They are prohibitively expensive for most now, which is the prime difference between FF and mirrorless. However, with Pentax flagships being released at ~$1300 and the A850 selling for less than $2000 the price difference isn't too large, and will continue to shrink. The $1300 price tag will only fly for so long before FF pushes it down.
By soon I mean within 2-3 product cycles, so 3-6 years. I wouldn't expect FF to completely replace APS-C DSLRs, but as prices for FF fall to around the price of a current high-end APS-C cameras, FF will no doubt, largely push APS-C out of the advanced amateur range for most applications.
APS-C DSLRs will be outflanked by EVIL and FF. APS-C DSLRs have their advantages now, but most of those advantages will fade as technology improves and becomes cheaper for the other 2. EVILs can match the IQ of APS-C DSLRs, and FF DSLRs provide can provide better IQ. The crop "advantage" that APS-C DSLRs enjoy/suffer from will cease to exist when pixel densities for FF match those of current APS-C sensors. There really isn't any inherent/requisite size advantage for APS-C, and a FF camera can be just as small(the mount size and register distance are most important here). A FF sensor can be made to act like an APS-C sensor for everything where APS-C will have an inherent advantage(processing speed, burst rate, file size, etc.). Mirror and shutter assembly size is the one area in which APS-C will always take the cake(and EVILs will take it further still), but I think that difference will be tolerable to most as far as DSLRs go.
The APS-C advantage will shrink on both ends of the spectrum. EVILs will dominate the market for small, light and cheaper cameras, while FF keeps edging in on the higher end DSLR market. APS-C DSLRs will exist in the space between the two, even matching them in some ways, but still being mediocre when it comes to most things. Good at everything but expert at nothing.
I really hope Pentax stay out of the EVIL market, at least until they have a better DSLR system worked out. It may be a growing market, but it also requires a new mount and new lenses. FF is also a growing market but would be more like a baby step for Pentax than a leap into the shark tank that is the current EVIL market.
Most of this is speculation, of course, but FF is here to stay, and adopting it as soon as possible would be the best strategy for Pentax, I believe. I trust they know what they're doing though, and I'm not worried, as long as they stay out of the Pro* game related in the other thread. Then again I'm no marketing guru, and I'm not particularly prescient as far as I know.
Originally posted by nosnoop Better than ever? Maybe, but by how much?
Not much really. As of last month (June), the best selling FF is 5D II, which occupies the #22 and #30 position in Japanese sales chart, and the best selling Nikon is D700 at #49; Sony does not make it to the top 60. So the total FF market share is still the minuscule 2 to 4% of total DSLR sales.
Doesn't look like it will happen anytime soon. By comparison, mirrorless camera (EVIL) has gone from 0% to 20-30% market share in less than 2 years.