[Finger]

When Pentax release a FF, i'll be ready for the flood of cheap DA Limited

[manishved]

Hmmm... I visualize an adapter that will mount on the FF camera and let you use DA lenses that will cover the entire sensor.

[Aristophanes]

Maybe not, but Canon has a 16-35 WA FF zoom.

And now Tokina has one as well, announced today:

Tokina announces 16-28mm F2.8 lens for Canon & Nikon: Digital Photography Review

If the smallest lens maker sees a healthy market and demand here at a $1,4000 MSRP price point, it stands to reason that a Pentax FF body will also see a market for Pentax branded FF WA zoom.

[Votesh]

OMG. What if it was co-developed with Pentax, to be released as a DFA* with their first FF body this year?

Highly unlikely, but if nothing else, such wild speculation is likely to end up being presented as close to factual on other sites. I think this thread would be quite worthwhile if it spawned a crazy rumor or two

[nosnoop]

There are more FF models now than ever, and they are selling better than ever.

Better than ever? Maybe, but by how much?
Not much really. As of last month (June), the best selling FF is 5D II, which occupies the #22 and #30 position in Japanese sales chart, and the best selling Nikon is D700 at #49; Sony does not make it to the top 60. So the total FF market share is still the minuscule 2 to 4% of total DSLR sales.

Soon they will replace the higher end APS-C cameras.

Doesn't look like it will happen anytime soon. By comparison, mirrorless camera (EVIL) has gone from 0% to 20-30% market share in less than 2 years.

[Votesh]

FF sales will continue to grow as prices fall. They are prohibitively expensive for most now, which is the prime difference between FF and mirrorless. However, with Pentax flagships being released at ~$1300 and the A850 selling for less than $2000 the price difference isn't too large, and will continue to shrink. The $1300 price tag will only fly for so long before FF pushes it down.

By soon I mean within 2-3 product cycles, so 3-6 years. I wouldn't expect FF to completely replace APS-C DSLRs, but as prices for FF fall to around the price of a current high-end APS-C cameras, FF will no doubt, largely push APS-C out of the advanced amateur range for most applications.

APS-C DSLRs will be outflanked by EVIL and FF. APS-C DSLRs have their advantages now, but most of those advantages will fade as technology improves and becomes cheaper for the other 2. EVILs can match the IQ of APS-C DSLRs, and FF DSLRs provide can provide better IQ. The crop "advantage" that APS-C DSLRs enjoy/suffer from will cease to exist when pixel densities for FF match those of current APS-C sensors. There really isn't any inherent/requisite size advantage for APS-C, and a FF camera can be just as small(the mount size and register distance are most important here). A FF sensor can be made to act like an APS-C sensor for everything where APS-C will have an inherent advantage(processing speed, burst rate, file size, etc.). Mirror and shutter assembly size is the one area in which APS-C will always take the cake(and EVILs will take it further still), but I think that difference will be tolerable to most as far as DSLRs go.

The APS-C advantage will shrink on both ends of the spectrum. EVILs will dominate the market for small, light and cheaper cameras, while FF keeps edging in on the higher end DSLR market. APS-C DSLRs will exist in the space between the two, even matching them in some ways, but still being mediocre when it comes to most things. Good at everything but expert at nothing.

I really hope Pentax stay out of the EVIL market, at least until they have a better DSLR system worked out. It may be a growing market, but it also requires a new mount and new lenses. FF is also a growing market but would be more like a baby step for Pentax than a leap into the shark tank that is the current EVIL market.

Most of this is speculation, of course, but FF is here to stay, and adopting it as soon as possible would be the best strategy for Pentax, I believe. I trust they know what they're doing though, and I'm not worried, as long as they stay out of the Pro* game related in the other thread. Then again I'm no marketing guru, and I'm not particularly prescient as far as I know.

Better than ever? Maybe, but by how much?
Not much really. As of last month (June), the best selling FF is 5D II, which occupies the #22 and #30 position in Japanese sales chart, and the best selling Nikon is D700 at #49; Sony does not make it to the top 60. So the total FF market share is still the minuscule 2 to 4% of total DSLR sales.



Doesn't look like it will happen anytime soon. By comparison, mirrorless camera (EVIL) has gone from 0% to 20-30% market share in less than 2 years.

[Aristophanes]

The APS-C advantage will shrink on both ends of the spectrum. EVILs will dominate the market for small, light and cheaper cameras, while FF keeps edging in on the higher end DSLR market.

I agree mostly with what you say, but this.

EVIL will likely occupy the middle price points, not the lower ones. That's where they are now and where they need to be for margins to produce the required ROI.

APS-C DSLR's with mirror box will come in below the EVIL for quite some time. It allows Canikon to compete on price and the investment is a sunk cost. Also, not everyone is a fan of the tricked out, less than manual, small EVIL form factor. The APS-C DSLR has an enormous (and growing) legacy glass solution that can be leveraged far more cheaply than spinning new glass.

FF will eat into APS-C DSLR. Look for a $1,500 FF model from Canikonsony this time next year. That will be a very severe problem for Pentax as their $1,200 MSRP K-7 price point simply cannot compete.

The likely outcome for Pentax will be: budget DSLR (K-x), mid-price EVIL (K-evil), FF prosumer (K-7). The real kicker here is not bodies, but lens supply.

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Last edited by Aristophanes; 07-06-2010 at 08:44 AM.

[Votesh]

EVILs are in the mid price range because they are just coming out of the gates. There will no doubt be entry level EVIls at more entry level prices.

Of course, "dominate" in the sense I used it is mostly hyperbole, but EVIL sales will pass DSLR sales within a year or two. Though they probably won't be at the expense of APS-C DSLR sales in most cases.

Owning APS-C legacy glass will indeed keep many from going FF even when prices are coming down, but all manufacturers will probably be forced to allow compatability with such lenses in their FF cameras as prices for FF drop. Then legacy glass won't even keep people with APS-C.

Once again, all just speculation. For all I know FF prices could continue to be artificially held up by manufacturers to reduce competition with APS-C. That is one more reason I think it would be good for Pentax to release a FF priced at or below the $2000 mark. It would force more price competition.

[TaoMaas]

You guys would be wise to expect the worst...and hope for the best. There will be much less anguish for you in the end. lol I know you think that Pentax HAS to come out with a FF DSLR, but you might as well be demanding that Canon and Nikon come out with a medium format camera. History says that you're going to be disappointed. sorry....

[Samsungian]

Yvon is blogging about adding another brand.

He's a Pentaxian with NDA inplace past few years which tells me Pentax has nothing exciting/new in the pipeline.

2010 is all about 645D and whether it will officially be released anywhere other than Japan.
645D only has one digitally optimzed lens which is also the only weather sealed lens offered.
I think Pentax will stay busy suppling Japan with more lucrative to sell 645D.
The aps-c system is on a long term hiatus for 2010.

I can see colored K-7 coming soon.
I can see more Pentax lenses offered in plastic mount.

Other than that Pentax aps-c is pretty much complete, nothing more is needed...

Unless you want more, then shop elsewhere


PENTAX DSLRs: The Pentax world has been relatively quiet this past year. So shame on me for thinking, that in my future, I might purchase some third party equipment, to complement my Pentax arsenal.

[Unsinkable II]

As much as I'd love a FF Pentax, I'd still be very happy with a K-7S.

Then in 2011 a K-7SS.

As electronics improve, inherent advantages of larger sensors decrease. After a while (5-7 years) they will decrease to the point that only professionals with high end glass can demonstrate a difference. Eventually (10 years), high end point and shoots will have current FF 2.8 quality out of the box, all with amazing new sensors and in-camera processing.

[Votesh]

Pentax/Hoya have been decidedly risk averse, and I expect them to continue along that path at Photokina. I don't think it's the proper path for them but of course that is merely my opinion.

However, history says nothing against Pentax offering FF in the future, and your anology about Canon and Nikon offering MF is ridiculous. If I'm not mistaken, neither of those 2 have ever produced MF cameras. Pentax was in the 24x36 game within the past 10 years, and for most of their camera making history. They still produce and sell FF lenses. Isn't the 60-250mm suitable for FF cameras? Why would they produce such a lens with no plan to release FF? Isn't one of the stated benefits of APS-C only lenses reduced size and weight? Why would they neglect that benefit?

I would say history shows Pentax being cautious about new tech, but adopting it as its viability in the market is demonstrated in the products of competitors. The longer they wait for those competitors to get ahead, the worse they will fare as those loyal to Pentax become more pragmatic and leave the brand for others that offer what they want/need.

Many talented photographer, that also happen to be big spenders much of the time, from this very board have left Pentax, or bought into other brands. That is no good.

You guys would be wise to expect the worst...and hope for the best. There will be much less anguish for you in the end. lol I know you think that Pentax HAS to come out with a FF DSLR, but you might as well be demanding that Canon and Nikon come out with a medium format camera. History says that you're going to be disappointed. sorry....

[sushi warrior]

Even if FF has a decent market share, I think Pentax would rather leave that segment to Canikon (and maybe Sony). It simply is too small to be worried about totally mangling your lens lineup and inflicting big R&D costs. I think the 645D will be the only high-end model Pentax makes (besides the K7). Their large collection of APS-C lenses just doesn't make it seem plausible.

On the other hand, I wouldn't doubt a K7 Super with a sensor similar to the K-x (preferably a bit better ISO, 14MP, and 1080p video or 720p/60+fps) and some other added features. IMO it is quite obvious the K-x has a better sensor, while the K7 is better at everything else. I would think the price point would be equal to the K7 or maybe a bit higher because the K-x sensor would logically be cheaper. It would be cool to see two almost identical models, one aimed at higher MP and one at better ISO.

[Votesh]

That is flawed reasoning. Larger sensors will always have advantages over smaller sensors. If nothing else they have a FOV advantage, and larger size means the ability to have higher resolution while maintaining similar IQ characteristics.

As much as I'd love a FF Pentax, I'd still be very happy with a K-7S.

Then in 2011 a K-7SS.

As electronics improve, inherent advantages of larger sensors decrease. After a while (5-7 years) they will decrease to the point that only professionals with high end glass can demonstrate a difference. Eventually (10 years), high end point and shoots will have current FF 2.8 quality out of the box, all with amazing new sensors and in-camera processing.

[Votesh]

APS-C lenses would work perfectly fine on FF. They could phase out the APS-C line, or keep it going while increasing the number of FF lenses they offer.

What big R&D costs would be required? They were a majority FF company until 2003(35mm film). They have designs for every major component required. They currently sell a number of FF compatible lenses, and 3rd party manufacturers sell more still. The main cost would be in retooling production facilities, to enable them to start producing FF components. It's not rocket science, it's what Pentax did, just with a different light collecting medium, for decades.

Any digital know-how that couldn't trickle up from APS-C could trickle down from 645D. There are several things that would be unique to a FF body that would require new R&D, but I imagine they would be relatively minor.

If they leave FF to other manufactures they will be left behind as FF prices come down and APS-C loses market share. "Too small" now will not be too small in a few years. Releasing a FF would be risky, but not releasing one is risky too.

Even if FF has a decent market share, I think Pentax would rather leave that segment to Canikon (and maybe Sony). It simply is too small to be worried about totally mangling your lens lineup and inflicting big R&D costs. I think the 645D will be the only high-end model Pentax makes (besides the K7). Their large collection of APS-C lenses just doesn't make it seem plausible.

On the other hand, I wouldn't doubt a K7 Super with a sensor similar to the K-x (preferably a bit better ISO, 14MP, and 1080p video or 720p/60+fps) and some other added features. IMO it is quite obvious the K-x has a better sensor, while the K7 is better at everything else. I would think the price point would be equal to the K7 or maybe a bit higher because the K-x sensor would logically be cheaper. It would be cool to see two almost identical models, one aimed at higher MP and one at better ISO.