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07-01-2010, 06:12 AM   #1
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If Pentax were planning on releasing a FF body, what would be the point in secrecy?

I would have thought it would work to their favour to announce it early.

Much like the 645D.

There is a ton of MF legacy glass lying around, and people want to know if a digital body can make use of it.

By announcing a FF body early, you'd get the attention of owners of Pentax 35mm glass, many of whom no doubt are currently using other brands.

I would conclude that Pentax isn't going to release a FF body this year.

If they do release one, they boobed by not saying so earlier (am not suggesting revealing full specs, just "there's going to be a FF body!").

07-01-2010, 07:28 AM   #2
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Saying "we're going to release a full-frame" would kill a lot of K7 sales (people would simply wait). They'd be happier letting those people buy a K7 and then having some of them buy the FF camera too.

It's all about buyer confidence.
07-01-2010, 07:31 AM   #3
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The 645D was a possible industry shaker. Plus, it was announced before the Hoya takeover. Not much was known about the K-7 and the K-x came out of nowhere. I think keeping things a secrete is good unless they do it intentionally though a press release. Competition is fierce and things move faster communications wise than the did in the early 60s. In 1966 the showed the Metallica II prototype and it was 5 years before the Electro Spotmatic and ES showed up and nearly 10 years before the K2 showed up.
07-01-2010, 07:33 AM   #4
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Yeah, announcing it early would cannibalize sales of APS-C cameras and lenses. It could also be harmful if the announced it early and then weren't able to release it for a year, or 2, or more. Like sushi said it's about sales and confidence.

07-01-2010, 07:36 AM   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by Unsinkable II Quote
I would have thought it would work to their favour to announce it early.

Much like the 645D.

There is a ton of MF legacy glass lying around, and people want to know if a digital body can make use of it.

By announcing a FF body early, you'd get the attention of owners of Pentax 35mm glass, many of whom no doubt are currently using other brands.

I would conclude that Pentax isn't going to release a FF body this year.

If they do release one, they boobed by not saying so earlier (am not suggesting revealing full specs, just "there's going to be a FF body!").
I can kind of see what you're saying. On the other hand, assuming in this hypothetical that Pentax will release a full frame camera system, they likely wouldn't sell and ship this camera until months after they announce it -- more than enough time to generate hype.

They wouldn't really need any hype beyond that, and before that point announcing the new camera would only hurt sales of existing cameras and, even worse, the larger mark up item -- camera lenses. Keep in mind most of Pentax's current inventory is DA glass, and I would expect sales of these lenses to take a hit if a full frame Pentax system was announced.
07-01-2010, 08:44 AM   #6
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Interesting comments, but I don't think Pentax need worry about APS-C customers fleeing en-masse to FF.

Canon/Sony/Nikon all live without fear of cannibalism. It's called a wider net.

Pentax need to stitch one together, and let people know they are doing it.


P.S.

Why does the underlying forum software consider "Pentax" to be a typo?!? SHODDY.
07-01-2010, 09:16 AM   #7
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If pentax does come out with a FF body, then you should also expect a new line of FF glass to come out at the same time. Almost all of their lenses are the DA's for aps-c and only the old FA's and DFA's could work on FF cameras. Expect the new lenses to look a lot like the DFA 100mm f/2.8WR, Full frame, great optics and a beautiful design
07-01-2010, 09:27 AM   #8
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There is no reason why Pentax can not keep 3 lines with K-x and K-7 variants and a new FF model. Both K-x and K-7 are already established models, with some refinement and appropriate price point, they can compete with the other brands. Adding the 645D in the line and start building the professional support model, then it will start getting some traction. Of course, I also think that they should have the equivalent road map for the lenses to support the camera lines.

Just my take on it.... no speculation or anything.

07-01-2010, 09:27 AM   #9
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A FF camera is deifinitely not coming out this year and I would think Pentax would annouce their FF camera no more than 4 months out simply due to the fact that others have stated already, they do not want to hurt the K7 sales because it is still selling pretty good right now. When the K7 sales start to slow down we will probably hear something from Pentax about a new camera and that may or may not be a FF.
07-01-2010, 09:29 AM   #10
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It wouldn't nexessarily be fleeing to FF. Even if someone didn't plan on buying the first FF body they might plan on waiting until later and buying one of the next models. That would mean holding off on buying APS-C cameras and lenses. Money not spent now is money that's never guaranteed to be spent.

Then there are the people that would planning on keeping an APS-C body, but also getting the FF body. They would likely sell off some APS-C only lenses in favor of FF lenses. Those sold APS-C lenses would account for some new APS-C lenses not being purchased. Some might also decide to sell their current DSLRs. That amounts to new APS-C DSLRs not being purchased.

Of course this is all hypothetical. And at the same time there are those people that would go elsewhere looking for FF and abandon Pentax for good, that would stay with Pentax if FF is announced. In the end I think announcing a FF far ahead of actual release would lead to reduction in profit from APS-C stuff. It sure isn't going to result in increased APS-C sales and money that they miss out on now, because someone is waiting for an announced FF, is money they are never guaranteed to get.
07-01-2010, 09:30 AM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by KxBlaze Quote
A FF camera is deifinitely not coming out this year and I would think Pentax would annouce their FF camera no more than 4 months out simply due to the fact that others have stated already, they do not want to hurt the K7 sales because it is still selling pretty good right now.
May be in the States.... in Canada, I doubt it?
07-01-2010, 09:45 AM   #12
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How do you know FF isn't coming this year? The 645D, plus a FF camera could be a nice 1-2 punch for Pentax.

None-the-less, we're bound to get at least 1 new body at Photokina, and it will probably actually be 2 or more. Where those bodies will lie, only a lucky few people know. For now we just have to wait, and hope for some fortunate leaks to come out of China.

QuoteOriginally posted by KxBlaze Quote
A FF camera is deifinitely not coming out this year and I would think Pentax would annouce their FF camera no more than 4 months out simply due to the fact that others have stated already, they do not want to hurt the K7 sales because it is still selling pretty good right now. When the K7 sales start to slow down we will probably hear something from Pentax about a new camera and that may or may not be a FF.
07-01-2010, 09:48 AM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by szurinaga Quote
If pentax does come out with a FF body, then you should also expect a new line of FF glass to come out at the same time. Almost all of their lenses are the DA's for aps-c and only the old FA's and DFA's could work on FF cameras. Expect the new lenses to look a lot like the DFA 100mm f/2.8WR, Full frame, great optics and a beautiful design
It's the lenses that are the issue. They require a 14-24 and a 24-70 or equivalent, plus a longer reach model. That's expensive glass, so a limited market. But it has to be there.

They also would require a TC and a WA prime, plus an 85 and maybe 135 as well.

I am ignoring the long end for now.

Optical formulas are available, but whether they can do the deed on reflective, SR sensors is another issue.

If Pentax does issue an FF, they may very well do so swiftly after announcement to avoid cannibalizing K-7 sales. The MF price point did not endanger K-7 sales, but FF definitely would.
07-01-2010, 10:00 AM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
It's the lenses that are the issue. They require a 14-24 and a 24-70 or equivalent, plus a longer reach model. That's expensive glass, so a limited market. But it has to be there.

They also would require a TC and a WA prime, plus an 85 and maybe 135 as well.

I am ignoring the long end for now.

Optical formulas are available, but whether they can do the deed on reflective, SR sensors is another issue.

If Pentax does issue an FF, they may very well do so swiftly after announcement to avoid cannibalizing K-7 sales. The MF price point did not endanger K-7 sales, but FF definitely would.
Look at Apple to see why announcing things only when they are ready to sell is good. If people know that a new model is coming out, they will wait to buy and leave existing stock laying around.

In terms of lenses, I'm not so sure that Pentax is missing that much. The most obvious gap is a 24-70/2.8, but they could certainly announce that along with a FF body. Plus, those two things make sense to announce together, because announcing that lens would make FF a given. The FA Ltd's cover fast primes, the 100/2.8 is a decent macro, and we've got the 200/2.8 and 300/4.0 (along with the 60-250 I think) that are all FF compatible. Adding a wide FF lens and a 70-200/2.8 would be good, but wouldn't be absolutely necessary right from the start.
07-01-2010, 11:42 AM   #15
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It would tend to steer people away from APS C lenses like the DA 15, DA 35, DA 16-50, DA 50-135. There are a lot of folks who would by full frame lenses, even on the off chance that some day they just maybe might be able to buy a full frame camera. If it isn't hinted at, it is more likely that they will buy APS C specific lenses.

Since the 645D does not share a mount with the K mount cameras this reasoning does not apply.
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