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10-23-2019, 02:59 PM - 1 Like   #5776
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mikesul Quote
There is nothing in these figures which would attribute the declines to their mirrorless decisions. Could be but the general decline in camera sales is continuing.

I'd second this. Canon\Nikons decline isn't due to them going mirrorless, rather going too late. Both Sony and Fuji increased market share in that chart.
Before mirrorless, Sony was closer to Pentax in marketshare...No one was talking about their cameras. Now they are #2. Overall market is shrinking (more like saturating not shrinking)
I'm not a huge fan of their cameras though.

10-23-2019, 03:56 PM   #5777
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QuoteOriginally posted by Leumas Quote
I'd second this. Canon\Nikons decline isn't due to them going mirrorless, rather going too late. Both Sony and Fuji increased market share in that chart.
Before mirrorless, Sony was closer to Pentax in marketshare...No one was talking about their cameras. Now they are #2. Overall market is shrinking (more like saturating not shrinking)
I'm not a huge fan of their cameras though.
In general I think the DSLR and MILC market are getting saturated. It's not everyday that one buys a camera. I've bought my k-5II in February 2014 and slowly built my Pentax arsenal buying my super wide and my 55 to 300. In September 2016, I bought my K-3II and the last Pentax gear that I bought was my DFA 100 mm macro WR. Now I'm sorta set for the long-term and I wouldn't buy new gears unless I need them. I believe it's the same for everyone. You buy gears and it will last you for a long time unless, you want to keep yourself updated or you're a pro that maximizes out your gears in a short time. As to how deep will the decline in demand I wouldn't know.
10-23-2019, 04:41 PM   #5778
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QuoteOriginally posted by totsmuyco Quote
In general I think the DSLR and MILC market are getting saturated. It's not everyday that one buys a camera. I've bought my k-5II in February 2014 and slowly built my Pentax arsenal buying my super wide and my 55 to 300. In September 2016, I bought my K-3II and the last Pentax gear that I bought was my DFA 100 mm macro WR. Now I'm sorta set for the long-term and I wouldn't buy new gears unless I need them. I believe it's the same for everyone. You buy gears and it will last you for a long time unless, you want to keep yourself updated or you're a pro that maximizes out your gears in a short time. As to how deep will the decline in demand I wouldn't know.
Exactly

I'm all for the market saturation actually. It will force companies to really innovate with ideas that make upgrading worthwhile instead of just jamming more megapixels into a sensor. And in that regard Pentax already has a good lead as they are adept at integrating new and out of the box features.
10-23-2019, 11:03 PM   #5779
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mikesul Quote
Yes, I saw that but I also saw Sony increase market share.
Again, because of percentages, Mike … it's actually a disaster to Sony's profitability, as Beholder3 was able to tell from their earning report …

Mirrorless and DSLR dinosaur collapse cont'd: Sony Q4 camera profits dropped by -73% - PentaxForums.com


QuoteOriginally posted by Mikesul Quote
Don't you think we need several years of data before we can make a reliable evaluation?
We have months of data, such as below, where blue represents mirrorless, red is DSLR and green the sum, to see that it's a nightmare, and we have years if we go back. The figures are well understood and Canon reckon it will halve again.

Note the DSLR sales even though it seems nothing but mirrorless has been released these last couple of years, and both Canon and Nikon are putting the brakes on EF and F mount development, while Sony has killed A mount altogether.

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10-23-2019, 11:12 PM   #5780
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I think both Canon and Nikon will kill their DSLR mount in the future. Not that soon but they will. I don't think any of both companies have enough clients to support both mounts. Some might argue that you may be able to use your lenses using an adapter but later people will just shift to the most recent product. Plus the mirrorless craze is pushing people towards MILC.
10-24-2019, 01:50 AM   #5781
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better bring back the KO 1 then so we can be like the Joneses
10-24-2019, 05:22 AM   #5782
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QuoteOriginally posted by dbs Quote
better bring back the KO 1 then so we can be like the Joneses
Sorry but I think in one of the interviews the Ricoh rep said that they're not interested in MILC. I don't know if that statement was final but I guess that was it

10-24-2019, 07:24 AM - 1 Like   #5783
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QuoteOriginally posted by totsmuyco Quote
Sorry but I think in one of the interviews the Ricoh rep said that they're not interested in MILC. I don't know if that statement was final but I guess that was it
No, they said they are studying mirrorless very carefully.

They would have watched the Nikon Z and Canon R problems unfold with great interest, because it gives clues as to how K-mount would be affected.

10-24-2019, 08:16 AM - 2 Likes   #5784
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
No, they said they are studying mirrorless very carefully.

They would have watched the Nikon Z and Canon R problems unfold with great interest, because it gives clues as to how K-mount would be affected.
Indeed!

Canikon surely expected a flood of sales when they gave their faithful fans a mirrorless option and gave Sony some competition. But Instead of a burst of Canikonites switching to mirrorless and a burst of mirrorless lovers switching to Canikon, they saw their marketshare plummet. For these DSLR makers, adding a mirrorless option has meant selling FEWER total cameras. It really is the worst possible outcome.

The deeper lesson is that MILC is not a market trend, it's a market segment -- some people want them, some people don't. Saying MILC will kill DSLRs is like saying wide angle lenses will kill telephoto lenses. Sure, wide angle lenses and telephoto lenses both compete for photographer's limited lens-buying budgets. And maybe one focal length range or another is changing in popularity. But the one cannot kill the other because no matter how popular wide angle lens become, some people still want telephoto lenses.
10-24-2019, 12:20 PM   #5785
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QuoteOriginally posted by totsmuyco Quote
I think both Canon and Nikon will kill their DSLR mount in the future. Not that soon but they will. I don't think any of both companies have enough clients to support both mounts.Plus the mirrorless craze is pushing people towards MILC.
Yes, no doubt in the future....but it won't be because of current mirrorless tech and that future is at least 20 years away. You'd need an entire generation of pros to have a superior system to replace. Go to any major sporting, political, concert, convention event. DSLRs dominate amongst the pros.
10-24-2019, 01:18 PM   #5786
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QuoteOriginally posted by Alex645 Quote
Go to any major sporting, political, concert, convention event. DSLRs dominate amongst the pros.
Then I wait with interest the upcoming Olympics. In Japan, too!
10-24-2019, 01:34 PM   #5787
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QuoteOriginally posted by totsmuyco Quote
I think both Canon and Nikon will kill their DSLR mount in the future. Not that soon but they will. I don't think any of both companies have enough clients to support both mounts. Some might argue that you may be able to use your lenses using an adapter but later people will just shift to the most recent product. Plus the mirrorless craze is pushing people towards MILC.
They definitely will at some point. It would also be a gamble, but obsoleting their old mounts could force people to upgrade to a newer system sooner. A gamble because they could lose those customers to a different brand.
Pentax could never do this as it's faithful die-hards are all that keep them afloat imo. Which is why I think Pentax will keep K for the foreseeable future, and going hybrid ovf/evf or just mirrorless K is the way to go.
10-24-2019, 02:52 PM - 1 Like   #5788
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QuoteOriginally posted by StiffLegged Quote
Then I wait with interest the upcoming Olympics. In Japan, too!
Unless they're being sponsored behind the scenes to promote a product, I think you'll find the pros, both freelance and agency, will be using DSLRs. They don't want the lag of the EVF, the compromises in lens choices and AF systems, the lack of robustness, etc. These are serious people doing serious work.
10-24-2019, 03:54 PM   #5789
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QuoteOriginally posted by Leumas Quote
Which is why I think Pentax will keep K for the foreseeable future, and going hybrid ovf/evf or just mirrorless K is the way to go.
Honestly, I'm not a MILC fan and I hope you're right that the k-mount will be used for a mirrorless platform. I'm quite young as a Pentax Jedi. I only used Pentax about 5 years ago. One of the reasons I chose the brand is the long existence and support of the mount. I wonder why they didn't pursue further the development of the K01.
10-24-2019, 04:22 PM - 1 Like   #5790
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QuoteOriginally posted by totsmuyco Quote
Honestly, I'm not a MILC fan and I hope you're right that the k-mount will be used for a mirrorless platform. I'm quite young as a Pentax Jedi. I only used Pentax about 5 years ago. One of the reasons I chose the brand is the long existence and support of the mount. I wonder why they didn't pursue further the development of the K01.
Honestly I think it's because Pentax can be too forward thinking for their own good sometimes. They can get into tech that's not ready for prime-time. Which I think is what happened with the K01. Pentax even had a Fullframe camera in development for release in spring 2001 (MZ-D), which would have beat Canon by a whole year as the first consumer digital Full-Frame camera.
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