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10-01-2010, 05:40 AM   #16
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I think Pentax must

I think that Pentax must produce a FF camera soon. And not just becouse I want one.

There is too big a gap between the K5 and 645D and a FF would bridge it nicely.

There has been a lot of talk on the forum about existing pro's not changing to a Pentax FF system and I agree; but that is not the market IMO.

There are a lot of people out there that are starting out in photography with a goal of doing it profesionally, why would you do a college course out of school if that wasn't your aim, and these people will look at what is out there to be bought and if a range will not go to full 'pro' spec, why would they invest in it from the start?

A lot of colleges STILL use K1000's to train new photogs on. A girl in my photo group brought a Pentax ME on location the other week and I know her digital camera is a Cannon. She told me she bought into that for that exact reason - no Pentax path to 'pro' FF.

I do not think Pentax should bring out a 1D type but a competitor to the 5D should easily be achievable and affordable. I know I would buy one in a heartbeat.

I don't think Sony's performance can be a guide to what Pentax could achieve as they do not have the photographic history of Pentax and the greater bulk of people do not know that they are essentially Minoltas. If Sony had been able to keep the name - who knows.

What do you think would happen to Pentax sales if they were rebranaded Hoya?


Anyway - my 2p

Bill

10-01-2010, 06:43 AM   #17
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If Sony cameras were still called Minoltas, they would be out of business, just like Minolta :-D The reason why that mount/system is still alive is because of Sony, not despite it.

And the market segment you mentioned––people who want to become "pros", for whom a FF sensor is absolutely essential *but* who don't need something really professional, like the D3x or 1Ds, even down the line––is very small. I wouldn't be surprised if that niche wasn't smaller than people who want to become real pros, with real pro cameras (D3x, 1Ds).


And, you see, the problem is, that small market niche is already filled, not with one, not with two, but with three contenders. Canon, Nikon, and Sony?


Another problem, like you said, is that this camera would have to be a competitor to the 5D. How do you propose Pentax, who doesn't have the market recognition and penetration that Canon and Nikon have, or the deep pocket that Sony has, come up with the R&D and then build and market an FF DSLR at a pricepoint that is competitive with the 5D?


Nope; Sony's performance can and *must* be used as a guide; even with their financial might, inheritance of an intrinsically great system/mount/legacy of lenses (Minolta), and their alignment with in industry giant (Carl Zeiss), Sony is not doing well in the FF arena. What makes you think Pentax can do so much better (not, btw, arguing that Pentax *can't* be better; just that they won't be able *to do* better).
10-01-2010, 07:27 AM   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by RawheaD Quote
who don't need something really professional, like the D3x or 1Ds, even down the line.
Not sure about that. I know 4 pros and only one has a D3. The other three use 5Ds and they all make a living out of their work.

A customer of mine was bemoaning that he wanted to get back into photography and go digital but his old Minolta kit was now useless. He was very happy when I told him that Sony had carried on the mount and - literally - 'rushed' out and bought one there and then. Well, it was on-line on my PC at work but we stopped the testing so he could buy one.

You could argue that Canon have a two level pro setup, the ID and IDs Uber pro, and the 5D and 7D Starter pro. Certainly Canon consider the 5D a pro camera, don't know about the 7D though.

I would agree that the market for the Uber-pro cameras are limited and that Canon and Nikon have that market cornered but I think that the Starter pro market will expand as the cost of the kit is affordable to the enthusiast as well.

You could also argue that the K5 is a competitor of the 7D and a K5f (full frame) would be the 5D competitor giving Pentax the Starter pro line up which would be all it would need since it has the 645D.

Bill
10-01-2010, 08:11 AM   #19
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Here Data you can find

DSLR Global Market share Data 2007

Canon...............41%
Nikon.................40%
Sony ................. 6%
Olympus.............6%

What is very interesting is that the total market share for 2009 of all Digital camera for DSLR is 7%.

If Pro model like FF, they probably are less than 1% of the total camera market. That is not a lot of volume for a newcomer

One last point is that mirrorless system represent now 1% of the Digital camera and by 2013 will be up to 8%
Where do you believe Pentax will spend money??? I know were if I was using my money

Camera are now a consumer item first and novelty is what sell


Last edited by bobmaxja; 10-01-2010 at 09:24 AM.
10-01-2010, 08:20 AM   #20
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That's not FF DSLR market share; just DSLR market share. Olympus doesn't make FF.
10-01-2010, 08:31 AM   #21
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The full frame DSLR's from Canon and Nikon were going after the medium format customer base as neither company was in that business. They stated that quite clearly when they first started making them. It was easy for them to do so as they had a huge number of customers with their film cameras and the lenses were already out there. Their bread and butter doesn't come from these cameras but from the smaller format aps sized sensor models. Pentax has long been a player in the MF world and it should be no surprise that they have introduced a 645D. There has always been a few amatuers and hobbiests who purchase expensive pro gear but the number is insignificant in the overall scheme of things.The trend in modern digital photography is to get smaller. In 10 years, our DSLR's will be rarely seen as the smaller mirrorless cameras will rule. This may not be a popular viewpoint with some but count on it happening.
10-01-2010, 08:42 AM   #22
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There are a couple of issues going on right now. The majority of full frame cameras are not purchased by professional photographers. They are purchased by wealth amateurs who want to look like professionals. With the economy down turn, more of those folks will end up in cameras like the K5/D7000, because they didn't really "need" full frame in the first place. Professional photographers will continue to get what they get, but even they are squeezed in a tough economy and tend to make do with what they have already.

Full frame does not sell itself. It is sold by people on the lower end moving up. Unless Pentax has an adequate base, full frame would wither on the vine.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sony stops making full frame, although certainly it seems like they have money to burn. If the economy improves and people have more cash to spend, full frame would make more sense for Pentax, but for right now, I think its benefits are not needed by most people out there and it would be a loser over all.
10-01-2010, 09:23 AM   #23
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You Are correct , I made a mistake , it was DSLR. I will edit if I can

10-01-2010, 09:23 AM   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by reeftool Quote
The trend in modern digital photography is to get smaller. In 10 years, our DSLR's will be rarely seen as the smaller mirrorless cameras will rule. This may not be a popular viewpoint with some but count on it happening.
Couldn't agree more. The trend is being set in Asia, not North America. This is no different from the "netbook" evolution and then the color choices. The next generation will be dominated by Mirrorless APS-C sensor (economically cheaper these days). It will be interesting to see the lens-based IS camera makers do in this market since big IS/VR lens does not suit well in small cameras. So, here is what I think will happen. Canikon will be dominating the DSLR world; Sony and Pentax will play a large part in the mirrorless APS-C. Panasonic and Olyumpus will continue strong in the micro 4/3. Three different segments with two player in each.

QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
They are purchased by wealth amateurs who want to look like professionals. With the economy down turn, more of those folks will end up in cameras like the K5/D7000, because they didn't really "need" full frame in the first place.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sony stops making full frame, although certainly it seems like they have money to burn. If the economy improves and people have more cash to spend, full frame would make more sense for Pentax, but for right now, I think its benefits are not needed by most people out there and it would be a loser over all.
A D700 with 24-70 2.4 or a 5D with similar L glass is a status symbol for some; very popular for retired professionals (not photography).

Judging by the Sony's marketing of not really pushing the full frame cameras, I would not be surprised if they believe theyhave better chance of success in taking the lead in the mirrorless APS-C camera arena than competing with Canikon in FF DSLR.

Time will tell.
10-01-2010, 11:13 AM   #25
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I found it surprising how high the 5Dmkii was ranked on Flicker. It is the 3rd most popular Canon, above the 7D, the 40D, and the 50D.

Flickr: Camera Finder: Canon

So it looks like, all those status seeking retired non-photography profesionals are taking plenty of photos.

In Nikon land, the D80 and D90 are the top cameras. But, the D700 is still in the top 10 with just over 1600 average daily users.

Sony looks like they are bleeding users, with their average user numbers dropping. The A900 is ranked at 45, and I don't see the A850 on the list. The average daily user number for the A900 is just 86. So just over 5% of the Nikon users.

With regard to Pentax, what I find interesting, is how many people are still using their K10D, and their K20D. To me this shows that the K-7 was just not enticing enough for people to make the upgrade. Compaire this to the change in numbers of D80 users and D90 users. It looks like the D80 users have moved to another camera, as the D90 has increased useage. I assume that people went from the D80 to the D90. It will be interesting to see what effect the D7000 has. And in Pentax land, I wonder if the K-5 will pull people away from their K10D's and K20D's.

I see:

Canon selling enough 5Dmkii's to justify making a mkiii soon. Plus they make their own sensors, so they have full control of material prices and delivery.

Nikon is rumored to be working towards making their own sensors, and in the last couple of years the majority of their lens releases have been FF lenses. To me, it looks like Nikon is planing to stay with FF, and leave Sony looking for another buyer of FF sensors.

Sony looks like they have given up on the pro and the enthusiest market. Their A700 needed to be replaced 18 months ago. It is looking like the A700 replacement will be a pellicle mirror EVIL camera (A77). Can you imaging if Pentax was still selling the K10D, and the upgrade was an EVIL camera?

Olympus is leaving DSLR's. After their E-5, it will be an all EVIL lineup.

Pentax doesn't have the resorces to develope both an EVIL system with lenses, and a FF system with lenses. I expect they will go EVIL.
10-01-2010, 12:06 PM   #26
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QuoteOriginally posted by Billgscott Quote
There is too big a gap between the K5 and 645D and a FF would bridge it nicely.Bill

I certainly agree. However, I doubt the economic feasibility of a Pentax FF camera.
10-01-2010, 12:21 PM   #27
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I think FF will continue to be a Canon vs Nikon thing. The next real battleground will be EVIL cameras because it's much more of a level playing field. Think of it this way: If you have to develop a new camera, is it smarter to build a FF camera and try to catch Canon/Nikon who have pretty much already lapped the field? Or is it wiser to put your development dollars into an EVIL camera where Canon/Nikon are within reach?
10-01-2010, 12:32 PM   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
I certainly agree. However, I doubt the economic feasibility of a Pentax FF camera.
Yes, a number of people have said that and in the current climate it is a possability, but the 645D must have taken a lot of cash and R&D effort to put together and it seems to be selling like hot cakes. A lot of the components for that were from the K7 I understand. Maybe research for the 645D can be filtered down to a FF camera.

Maybe Pentax has recouped all the R&D costs in Japan and anything else is pure profit but I would be very supprised if the market for a MF camera is bigger than one for a FF in Europe and the US but I have been wrong before. Remember that Pentax originaly said it wouldn't sell the 645 in the US as it couldn't see the sales.

I would think it more likely that someone would up-grade to a FF body at £2000 that can take your existing glass, than to go to an MF body at £10000 that you would have to buy all new glas as well.

Bill
10-01-2010, 12:37 PM   #29
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QuoteOriginally posted by TaoMaas Quote
I think FF will continue to be a Canon vs Nikon thing. The next real battleground will be EVIL cameras because it's much more of a level playing field. Think of it this way: If you have to develop a new camera, is it smarter to build a FF camera and try to catch Canon/Nikon who have pretty much already lapped the field? Or is it wiser to put your development dollars into an EVIL camera where Canon/Nikon are within reach?
In manufacturing, sometimes it is better to have a 'me too' product that stops your competitors gaining your existing customer base first and then bring out the new technology. Pentax do not have to kill off canikon, just take a little of their market share without loosing any.

I don't think the DSLR as we know it today is going anywhere soon.

Pentax would have to bring out a whole new line in glass as well to take advantage of the shorter registration distance and that will take time.

A FF now (ish) would bring in money and new photogs.

Bill
10-01-2010, 12:39 PM   #30
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QuoteOriginally posted by KungPOW Quote
I found it surprising how high the 5Dmkii was ranked on Flicker. It is the 3rd most popular Canon, above the 7D, the 40D, and the 50D.
That's easy to explain. The higher end the camera, the more likely that person is to take lots more photos, show more photos, get critiques on photos, etc. Flikr is an easy way to do that w/o taking up bandwidth on a personal or business website.

People with p&s are probably more likely to just upload to Facebook and the like.
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