Originally posted by philbaum Photokina Report 2010, Part IV: Pentax SLR Talk Forum: Digital Photography Review
Quote from Ursinho
Now is this writer's conclusion infalliable. No, of course not. But i think his observations are fascinating. There are many examples of find technological improvements that didn't stay around in the long term, just because they weren't presented right, weren't marketed right, etc.
So you experts, please no criticism of ursinho, but what do you think of FF's viability for the next 5 years. Is there going to be sufficient sales of these cameras to keep the current 3 manufactures in the market place with those models???
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It isn't a question, in my mind, of whether FF is better technically than aps.
The question i think this writer raises is whether there's sufficient photographers with money out there to afford enough FF systems to keep these models going? And where is consumer interest going - most of it seems to be focused on the EVIL models?
looking forward to an interesting discussion, i hope to learn
He is right and wrong.
In one sentence to answer your question - Full frame would be there in future, it may very well be only three or two company offering. (and when i say two i mean canon and sony not canon and nikon). It is very likely to be three company offering.
Here is why:
His observations are alright but conclusion (if he concluded that full frame won't be there then) are wrong.
First thing to notice is that last 2 years or so has been a transient period and there is not so subtle change taking place. Movement towards EVIL type of cameras. There is lot of buzz in that sector. And companies are putting effort into it. Oly Pana and sony are doing it and in the background very likely canon and nikon (and pentax too) might be working on it. So it explains lack of excitement in full frame sector.
Lack of excitement in medium format sector could be explained by price difference of full frame and medium format. Now that image quality in full frame is high people might just buy full frame rather than very expensive medium format.
(same might be true between apc and full frame but full frames are not so expensive compared to apc at the moment for example A850 for 1800$).
This is why lumping full frame and medium format together as large sensors and writing them off is not good idea.
Now to the part about future of full frame.
You must understand that there will be a product if there is money to be made.
So it means that there will be offering for medium and full frames in future. Just that medium format one might be too limited as very niche product while full frame be easily available.
Full frame and canon + sony
Canon and sony makes their own sensors. They have everything to make full frame sensors and they are already making it. They also make APC cams. Thus it is easier for them to offer full frame at cheaper prices. (they can sustain little loss since they are big). Nikon does not make sensors (at least do not manufacture them). So they are weak link and very likely to write it off if not making them money.
(Thom Hogan was wrong about Sony in his recent predictions that sony would give up full frame. Sony has been releasing full frame based lenses if someone is carefully observing).
Future of full frame may very well be EVIL or SLT type design of sony. (Depending on AF in video).
PS: I am very rarely wrong with my preditions. In 2005 i did predict about rise of EVIL cams, 5 years i am every bit right. I am pretty confident about my predictions this time too.