Originally posted by falconeye Randy,
I think the situation in 2 years is relatively clear. My number 1 guess is this:
1. Pentax alive
2. 4 camera lines, as follows:
- rugged and small, maybe P&S, maybe smaller than APSC mirrorless.
- APSC mirrorless, suceeding the 2011 model
- FF dSLR
- 645D sucessor
3. I expect a K-5 successor in 2012 but I am not too sure about this for 2013. The market will decide for how long APSC dSLRs will sell for above $1000. If Sony does their new FF CMOS chip, there may be a rush towards it, either late 2011 or 2012.
I'm not sure how much more pixels can be put on an APSC sensor, I would say 20Mpx-ish. But I would say that given the fact that Pentax will have to maintain at least 3 lens lineup in near future:
- APSC mirorless (or smaller sensor) Lineup of a dozen lenses (3-4 primes, 4 zooms, Low-end/High-end standard, Low-end/High-end tele)
to be created.
- APSC K-mount current lineup + maybe one or two lenses
currently complete
- 645 mount: They need to renew this lineup which means dozens of lenses (standard zooms, tele-zooms, complete set of primes, super-tele primes/zooms, leaf shutter, tilt-shift etc...) while improving dramatically their quality control (at a price)
Given the fact that it will keep Pentax limited ressources busy for the next years, I don't see Pentax going 35mm full-frame in 2 years. My money would go on Pentax keeping improving their APSC flagship, continuing to get it smaller and smaller. Back in the days, there was the Nikon/Canon people (big cameras) and the Leica ones (small cameras) Nikon and Canon are still there, but Leica has moved to become more a Luxury/status brand (I'm not saying that they don't make proper cameras, I would love a M9) IMO, with the dismise of 4/3 system, this leaves some space for the significant number of people who want to shot with smaller camera while not compromising quality or functions.
My own guess is that APSC SLR cameras have still at least 5 years as a dominant technology.It is definitively a sweet spot for quality vs size vs price with a lot of room for improvement.