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01-27-2011, 02:59 PM   #1
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2 years time

I was wondering if anyone one had thoughts on what will be in pentax flagship dslr in 2 years time (K5 progressed, not medium format as I will never be able to afford one)
I have a loan that will be paid in 2 years and will likely get a new body

thanks

randy

01-27-2011, 03:08 PM   #2
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I'm hoping for either a successor to the K20d, or better yet an FF camera.
I don't believe the cost of a MF body will be in my budget by then either.
01-27-2011, 03:25 PM   #3
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It will be called K-1.
01-27-2011, 03:39 PM   #4
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QuoteOriginally posted by Fontan Quote
It will be called K-1.
My guess is the "K-naught".

In all seriousness though, I think Pentax will come out with a FF dslr to make use of those beautiful FA limiteds. From a business strategy point of view this makes sense: let other companies mess around with the initial FFs (probably not making much profit on them, if any) - and jump in once the technology is well developed. It is quite a leap to go from a $1500 to $10,000 body in the lineup. Plus, Pentax could easily revive a handful of old FF lens designs (e.g. FA* 28-70mm f/2.8; FA 20mm f/2.8; etc.) so that the FF system wouldn't miss a beat (the DA*60-250mm is FF, as I understand).

People will say: APS-C is basically FF quality; has the DR; noise control; etc... My attraction to that system, however, is the 135 perspective. APS-C at the wider angles simply does not have an attractive look and feel to it, IMO.

01-27-2011, 03:43 PM   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by WideOpen Quote
My guess is the "K-naught".

In all seriousness though, I think Pentax will come out with a FF dslr to make use of those beautiful FA limiteds. From a business strategy point of view this makes sense: let other companies mess around with the initial FFs (probably not making much profit on them, if any) - and jump in once the technology is well developed. It is quite a leap to go from a $1500 to $10,000 body in the lineup. Plus, Pentax could easily revive a handful of old FF lens designs (e.g. FA* 28-70mm f/2.8; FA 20mm f/2.8; etc.) so that the FF system wouldn't miss a beat (the DA*60-250mm is FF, as I understand).

People will say: APS-C is basically FF quality; has the DR; noise control; etc... My attraction to that system, however, is the 135 perspective. APS-C at the wider angles simply does not have an attractive look and feel to it, IMO.

You are one of the few who mentioned the "perspective" aspect of FF. To me that is where the money is as far as FF goes.
01-27-2011, 03:50 PM   #6
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I "predict" that pentax's flagship will include:

1. better sensor and dynamic range than K-5
2. better AF speed
3. better than K-5 in all respects
4. AND INCLUDE AN ARTICULATED LCD AMOLED DISPLAY! yeah! go pentax!
01-27-2011, 03:58 PM   #7
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out of curiosity, is nikon or cannon producing a medium format camera?

If not I don't see why pentax wouldn't just keep the 645d as their flagship - and maybe add a FF dslr into the mix.
01-27-2011, 04:47 PM   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by slipchuck Quote
I was wondering if anyone one had thoughts on what will be in pentax flagship dslr in 2 years time (K5 progressed, not medium format as I will never be able to afford one)
Randy,

I think the situation in 2 years is relatively clear. My number 1 guess is this:

1. Pentax alive
2. 4 camera lines, as follows:
- rugged and small, maybe P&S, maybe smaller than APSC mirrorless.
- APSC mirrorless, suceeding the 2011 model
- FF dSLR
- 645D sucessor
3. I expect a K-5 successor in 2012 but I am not too sure about this for 2013. The market will decide for how long APSC dSLRs will sell for above $1000. If Sony does their new FF CMOS chip, there may be a rush towards it, either late 2011 or 2012.

01-28-2011, 02:16 AM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Randy,

I think the situation in 2 years is relatively clear. My number 1 guess is this:

1. Pentax alive
2. 4 camera lines, as follows:
- rugged and small, maybe P&S, maybe smaller than APSC mirrorless.
- APSC mirrorless, suceeding the 2011 model
- FF dSLR
- 645D sucessor
3. I expect a K-5 successor in 2012 but I am not too sure about this for 2013. The market will decide for how long APSC dSLRs will sell for above $1000. If Sony does their new FF CMOS chip, there may be a rush towards it, either late 2011 or 2012.
I'm not sure how much more pixels can be put on an APSC sensor, I would say 20Mpx-ish. But I would say that given the fact that Pentax will have to maintain at least 3 lens lineup in near future:
- APSC mirorless (or smaller sensor) Lineup of a dozen lenses (3-4 primes, 4 zooms, Low-end/High-end standard, Low-end/High-end tele) to be created.
- APSC K-mount current lineup + maybe one or two lenses currently complete
- 645 mount: They need to renew this lineup which means dozens of lenses (standard zooms, tele-zooms, complete set of primes, super-tele primes/zooms, leaf shutter, tilt-shift etc...) while improving dramatically their quality control (at a price)

Given the fact that it will keep Pentax limited ressources busy for the next years, I don't see Pentax going 35mm full-frame in 2 years. My money would go on Pentax keeping improving their APSC flagship, continuing to get it smaller and smaller. Back in the days, there was the Nikon/Canon people (big cameras) and the Leica ones (small cameras) Nikon and Canon are still there, but Leica has moved to become more a Luxury/status brand (I'm not saying that they don't make proper cameras, I would love a M9) IMO, with the dismise of 4/3 system, this leaves some space for the significant number of people who want to shot with smaller camera while not compromising quality or functions.

My own guess is that APSC SLR cameras have still at least 5 years as a dominant technology.It is definitively a sweet spot for quality vs size vs price with a lot of room for improvement.
01-28-2011, 03:06 AM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by ghelary Quote
I'm not sure how much more pixels can be put on an APSC sensor, I would say 20Mpx-ish.
You seem too have made a typo, I am sure - 200 million pixels sounds like more realistic upper limit (at even that is not because of the technology, but because of the lenses and diffraction).
01-28-2011, 03:28 AM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by WideOpen Quote
the DA*60-250mm is FF, as I understand

Mine is not, so I guess all 60-250 aren't FF.
01-28-2011, 04:16 AM   #12
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01-28-2011, 04:25 AM   #13
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i think that APSC chip would maintain between 14-18Mpx, beyond that limit, you loose in quality.
So i think that when this Mpx run will be over, everyone will start considering a good FF chip.

Yes developping the 645D cost a lot of money, but as Pentax / Hoya said it, they do much more benefits on the 645 than on the k5 or k-r. So i think that Pentax will do a FF, but first they have to finish building a good lens lineup for the K mount (nearly finnish i guess. Just missing a 80-90mm lens), to rebuild a lineup for the 645D.
All i hope is that if they do an EVIL, that it will be compatible with the K mount, with a crop factor of 2 i guess. if they do, they will make such a mess on the market :
A good lens lineup, completely universal for every SRL produce.

Ok, i admit, it's kind ofmy dream
01-28-2011, 04:30 AM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aku Ankka Quote
You seem too have made a typo, I am sure - 200 million pixels sounds like more realistic upper limit (at even that is not because of the technology, but because of the lenses and diffraction).
No, I really meant 20Mpx, resolution is not just limited by physics but also how much mechanical precision can implemented on a camera with mass-producing facilities. At current pixel counts, we already see some very significant sample variations, going further will simply make it more and more obvious.

Panasonic and Olympus already stated that 12Mpx is the sweet spot for 4/3 sensors and that they don't intend to put in more. In compact cameras, the trend is to smaller sensors in terms of megapixels and bigger in size (see Canon G11 vs G10) So IMO, the APSC sensors will stabilise at around 20Mpx, which won't push the enveloppe on demand on lenses too high and still allow for very significant cropping and big file printing.

FF cameras and MF will still push for more pixels, but one have to keep that an 80Mpx back like the new phase one (or the older 65Mpx one) is putting a demand so high on lenses that a photographer has to try 3-4 samples of the same lens before before being satisfied with the result. And we are speaking of 4000$ hand made ones.

And at the end of the day, most sport pro photographers are happy with 10Mpx because it is more than enough to print in a Newspaper, and a fashion photographer like Benjamin Kanarek can sell pictures made on a K20D that will be displayed on double page spreads on glossy magazines. I'm not saying that the 40Mpx of a Digital MF are pointless, just that 40Mpx on a consumer / small form factor camera are.
01-28-2011, 06:16 AM   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by eurostar Quote
Mine is not, so I guess all 60-250 aren't FF.
Beware, vigneting doesn't mean the lens isn't FF.
FF lenses on FF body do also vignette. The question is how much.

As a matter of fact, it has been shown by FalconEyes that the 60-250 patent does indeed describe a full frame lens.
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