Originally posted by misiu_mp I think the market and technology is now mature enough for a full frame Pentax DSLR. But something smaller than that monster on the picture, please!
If Pentax had sold a GOOD full-frame dslr in 2002, things might be very different. However, by all accounts, the sensor in that prototype was really lousy.
While the technology certainly exists for a full-frame dslr today, I think Pentax would be foolish to build one.
The full-frame dslr market is very, very small, compared to the aps-c market. What market there is for FF is pretty much sewn up by N & C, with a little S thrown in. I've heard rumors that S is getting out of the FF camera market.
Pentax would be lucky, IMHO, to get 10 percent of the FF market, which is less than 10 percent of the overall dslr market. While manufacturing costs for a FF Pentax camera might be similar to those for C & N, Pentax would have to amortize development costs over far fewer units, which would add a lot to the retail price. So, I think Pentax would have a very hard time competing against the D700 on price.
Next, Pentax has no real FF lens line. Sure, you could use old film lenses, but I don't think many buyers shelling out that kind of money are going to be happy being told to go to eBay for their lenses.
While there are a few amateurs willing to spend the money for FF, it is largely a professional photographer market. Pentax has little penetration in that market, the 645D notwithstanding. Pros want/need to be able to walk into a store in their town and rent a specialized, expensive lens. That's easy for C & N, virtually impossible for Pentax. Pros need to be able to drop off a damaged camera or lens, rent a replacement (or be given one free if its under warranty) and get their own camera back in two or three days, not two or three months. Pentax hasn't got the support network to do that. Heck, in many cities, you can't even find a store that carries Pentax in stock. Some stores can't even be bothered to special order Pentax.
I don't think its at all clear that FF is the future. EVIL cameras are getting all the buzz right now. Pentax might be smarter to enter that market, which is potentially much bigger than FF, and one in which they could probably compete much more effectively.
People tend to forget, companies like Pentax aren't in business to make cameras; they're in business to make MONEY. Making cameras is just the way they have chosen to make money. Pentax does not have the resources to make a big splash in the FF market. I believe they would probably lose money, if they tried. They have to go where they believe they can get the best return on their investment. That doesn't include FF, IMHO.