Originally posted by stevebrot I agree totally regarding the ultimate squeeze-out of the current FF digital by cameras such as the 645d and the Leica S. Unless FF digital bodies can be made in a more compact form to match the optics they support, they are pretty much doomed.
Steve I think the problem with that is that the market for bodies that start at $10K USD is always going to be extremely small, so it's hard to see any market expansion from the tier above squeezing the FF market.
I think what's more likely to happen is that the aps-c DSLR tier will be squeezed from below by increasing-quality small-sensor cameras, and then the aps-c tier will slowly morph into aps-c mirrorless. Folks who want the best
optical VFs, who need the best performance (or think they do,) and prefer the mirror bodies will remain in the FF (or MF) market, and the camera companies (at least the big two) will be glad to serve them for a while.
I also think that there will be smallish, semi-economical FF bodies that will capture the attention of a lot of current aps-c DSLR shooters, who will choose to go that route vs. giving in to the dreaded EVF.
This will probably actually
expand the FF market a bit, much like the 645D has expanded the MF market slightly.
But it's hard to see more than 5-6 years out right now, things have the capability of changing so drastically very quickly.
.