Originally posted by jsherman999 Very thoughtful analysis, but I really think this all would apply much more if Pentax was a standalone company.
Ricoh may be looking at ways to supplement a copier business that is in decline, and may be radically changed in 10 years. If that's the case, even a 8-year ROI on FF (really a K-mount investment,) would be attractive to them, because it would be fully black and profitable around the time they needed it. It seems they're moving in several different areas like that, where they see potential in emerging markets like Asia, and technologies that will keep getting better/cheaper, and the marriage between the two.
If that's the case, it makes sense to start FF lens production again in 2012, to position themselves well for when a FF sensor is really affordable for the masses (your view) or to get aggressive against their old rival Canon, and get in the game sooner (my view.)
(You could wonder if Pentax hedged their bets here, as a lot of the 'new' lenses just happen to be FF-compatible anyway...)
I 99% suspect that Pentax has FF mock-ups in skunkworks. They'd be foolish not to.
And the lens development does hedge bets, like DA 35/2.4. Part of that has to do with SR tolerance, but the D FA 100 is a case in point as well.
The 645D has been out 1 year and has 2 lenses with really only 1 more on the immediate horizon. And these prices are $2,000 - $6,000 just for lenses, with literally no sales markdowns. Lens development is very time-consuming and costly. There are a limited # of people in the world capable of design and execution. it is highly labour and capital intensive so the planning horizon takes years and years to work out and master. Posters here greatly overestimate the potential for Pentax to put together a FF lens and body offering at competitive prices and supply. I do not see Ricoh doubling down on their Pentax bet to get FF out the door at 600 unit sales per month.
Ricoh's GSX is no a gamechanger. It's too expensive and the design too wonky. Photography has a very conservative streak. The whole sensor/module thing is simply too expensive to be a value...ever. That said, Ricoh has photography in its blood, so we'll see how they position their product line come 2012.
Here are the gamechanger's I see:
1) Mamiya enters the MF market at a lower price point against the 645D. Phase One is the high-end brand. Kodak is able to drop CCD prices and suddenly there's competition at MF. The 645D in 5 years is a $6,500 body and Pentax has a 5-6 lens system and is thinking about an economy line for 645D glass, and a new body is planned for a 2-tier MF market. Suddenly the Nikon D4 price premiums look silly to a lot of people, especially small and portable studio wonks. Who cares about video? This level becomes "real, old school photography".
2) Fuji and Leica actually get serious about the reviving RF digital market at lower prices points than Leica's current offering using APS-C. These products have appeal in a high-end way that the current M43 line does not, largely because of a superior sensor. A considerable amount of high-end $$$ flows away from DSLR towards enhanced, hybrid RF's with ILC's. Lots of limitations there (likely no zooms, not great tele or macro, but who cares?), but a viable alternative to the bulkier DSLR and the somewhat gimmicky M43. Target: snapshot pixel peepers with disposable incomes, but not Leica tax write-off optential.
3) Sony, Samsung or even Kodak develop a better lithography system for larger sensors, although I suspect it will be Canon who takes this approach. This drives FF prices down. Instead of the Sony/Nikon cabal, we have a competitive market for larger sensors. This will happen when marketing realizes that APS-C has reached its development limit and only larger sensors can compete. M43 is in real trouble, and suddenly Sony looks wise for keeping e-mount and a-mount the same diameter.
Industry issues unresolved:
1. Canon and Nikon and mirrorless.
2. What to do with the OVF vs. EVF and the potential for SLT pellicle designs?
3. How far will P&S get eaten by cameraphones (less than some people realize)?
4. Samsung.