Originally posted by Aristophanes Realistically the 645D is not an upgrade path. That's like going from a Honda Civic to a 5 ton truck.
Exactly my point.
Quote: It's a separate silo by design. It's priced for maximum margins at low sales volumes, and undercuts the current MF offering substantially making it the value proposition in the world of delivery trucks.
The economics that allowed this undercutting are easier at the MFD level, but exist at the FF level also. Thom Hogan has estimated that the D3x costs Nikon around $2600 to produce, yet they charge $8000 for it. Another half-tier down, at the D700 level, there's still some room to move, although undercutting the price by much wouldn't be the main goal.
Quote: An FF DSLR would have to fit into Pentax's 4-5% market share for the current DSLR (non-MF) market.
This argument always depends on the market just staying the same, an immovable rock. If that were the case, Pentax would have been completely nuts to enter the MFD market, with it's well-established players. They did enter it, and expanded it.
Quote: The smaller Pentax bodies of the last 2 generations of APS-C have done nothing to move market share. The larger K20D may have been a better seller than the K-7 and even the K-5.
I think that after a few months, the K20D was the cheapest body in it's class. The Online Photographer named it #2 in the TOP list that year, after the D300,
because it was priced lower and spec-ed out the same or better. Thus, some success.
The K-7 was a nice little body, but a half-effort otherwise.
The K-5 basically did not give anyone a reason to consider it over the D7000, it's Nikon clone. The QC issues didn't help much.
I don't think a
size issue had anything to do with those scenarios. Size is all pretty similar in aps-c anyway between certain models.
Quote: If you're working within a constrained market share an FF DSLR from Pentax will shift resources from APS-C where the volumes are. All you're doing is moving the same customers around
No, that's not all you're doing. You're also intercepting the Pentax guy who would have bought a D800, you're making the Oly and Panasonic shooters take a hard look, you're enticing the Nikon shooter who wants a quality, small second FF kit that has some delicious prime options.
Quote: .. Pentax does not have enough of either, even with Ricoh the owner.
I suspect Ricoh could pay
cash to roll out a FF move - they wouldn't even need to finance it. They're that big.
Most of your arguments there would make more sense, IMO, if:
1) Pentax was a standalone
2) Multi-use devices with increasingly good embedded cameras weren't threatening the aps-c tier
3) Mirrorless, EVF wasn't threatening the aps-c DSLR tier. Remember, almost anyone can make one of those - entry into DSLR is tougher for them. That aps-c/mirrorless tier becomes a big, hard mess quickly. It would be nice to have something above the fray that keeps your bread & butter mount viable.
Quote: How does a no-video, no live view, no SR, 2 FPS FF DSLR sound to you at $2,000 per body the size of a D300? And with only 5 primes and 3 moderate f/3.5-4 zooms and no third party support?
Quite the straw-man, there.
Quote: Throw in the disruptive technologies of pellicle with EVF and mirrorless and the FF argument diminishes.
Disruptive technologies are probably the main fear that kept Hoya out of it. They may see a healthy ROI after, say, 5 years, but something unforeseen could so disrupt everything before that 5 years is up that they could lose a chunk of the investment. Sometimes execs in big companies opt to buy bonds with excess cash and just sit things out for a bit. They wouldn't call it timid, they would call it careful, of course.
Quote: So Pentax opted for the Q which is positioned as a second camera for the all-in-one silo DSLR crowd, not intended to compete with the APS-C revenue stream like FF would inevitably do.
The silo, as I'm using the term, is mount-specific and is associated with tightly-tied development synergies. 'Q' is in it's own silo, as is 645D. An aps-c shooter and a FF shooter are in the same silo because they can use each other's lenses (mostly,) and almost all tech going into a FF body can filter down into an aps-c body, a strategy Nikon used brilliantly.
(If you're saying the 'Q' is in the same
pricing silo as aps-c DSLRs, then yes, stupidly, it is.
)
.
Last edited by jsherman999; 07-12-2011 at 10:31 AM.