Originally posted by jsherman999 They don't have to catch up - maybe 4, 5 lenses gets them strongly in the game. And that wouldn't take 5 years with a capital investment by Ricoh.
They'd need 3-4 more primes in addition to the current FF fare.
They'd need an economy line of f/3.5-4 zoom glass, likely 3-4 lenses. They'd need right off the bat 3 pro level zooms at f/2.8 from 14-200mm.
Even though the optical formulas are probably dialed-in, everything needs to re-worked for the unforgiving aspects of digital, including micro-lenses, etc. For that they need some idea of their sensor path.
Looking at historical trends for lens development this is a 3-4 year effort at best. Neither Nikon nor Canon, with 5x the sales volumes each, have had that much output in the last decade. You are basically demanding Canikon-level capital investments on 80% less sales.
That pig don't fly. Ricoh got big probably because they are not stupid.
Quote: As is MFD digital. The 645D is a halo product, a FF body would be a bread & butter product.
Not without volume. That's Son'y problem. They took the A850 out of sales, and now have the relatively ancient A900 as the only FF option.
Troll the Sony forums where there is some very credible information. Also, read Hogan again as he has information about Sony and Nikon collaborating closely on all sorts of aspects of sensor design.
The term "halo product" is total puffery and does not apply here. It's like saying more people will fly on Boeing aircraft because Boeing also makes comm satellites.
Quote: The right product at the right price would bring a little of that. Also, from Sony, and upgraders from other mounts would have Pentax to consider.
And just what price would that be?
The market for cameras over $2,000 is extremely small, measured in the very low tens of thousands of units per year worldwide.
Quote: Just like MFD digital - pre-645D.
The 645D is priced NOT to trend into FF territory, and there is no sign that prices will drop.
It has had no effect overall on the pricing schemes of the other MF suppliers. I don't think they even blinked.
Quote: Absolutely not true. Thom Hogan (sorry to keep bringing him up, but he makes a living thinking about these things
) estimates that all the full-time pros in the US don't account for the sales of the d3 series alone, much less the d3, 1ds, D700, 5D, Sonys... It's an enthusiast-driven market.
I've communicated with Thom Hogan. He admits he's often wrong but he does have inside information.
A "prosumer" product relies on aggregate sales from prosumers, but it still needs pros to exist at all and to be priced affordable. For every pro who logs onto B&H and pays the MSRP at launch there are 5 prosumers who benefit from the pros early adopter outlay. That cost-shifting is how the high-end market works.
The MF market is priced so this is not a relevant effect. In fact, MF suppliers avoid that game scrupulously tying their products to pro support systems.
Quote: *Every* crowd has future FF upgraders in their mix. The Nikon forums are full of ex Pentax, Oly, Panasonic, etc shooters, not just Nikon upgraders.
Again, tiny, tiny, tiny market. You are measuring sales volumes in the low thousands at most.
You seem to think that another $2,500 FF camera will
increase the total market. That the launch of a Pentax FF means people will put their money there rather than a new snowblower.
Look at Flickr stats. Just one Nikon D700 group has over 10,000 members...in English. More in other languages. The English language D3 group polls over 4,000 members.
The total Sony A850 group is 275 people. The A900 less than 100 people. And the total Sony FF group about 370.
Where do think a Pentax $2,500 FF fits in there?
The 645D has 161 members. Leica M9 2,319 (cost equivalent to a 645D in some respects). Pentax K-5 1,200 and so on.
Quote: Source?
I'm simply analyzing. Sony pulling models is a strong signal about ROI. That they did so very swiftly with no announcement of a substitute, leaving a lot of their installed base very angry, speaks volumes.
Companies generally only do that if they are taking very large losses on a product. In other words, not amortizing. the A-mount Sony FF's did not even poll on Amazon sales.
And Sony's ability to tap the Minolta base is similar to Pentax tapping their base, except that the old Minolta base was always 2-3x larger than Pentax' based on historic sales. Minolta was a solid #3, challenged Nikon for #2, and was well ahead of Pentax in sales, so they come at FF from a better starting point. And it hasn't helped, even though they are the industry's major sensor manufacturer.
Quote: Interesting speculation, but 'I bet anything' isn't data.
Hogan has made it as have many industry analysts.
It's completely normal and occurs also in automobiles, tires, etc.
The reality of the Sony FF fab is that Nikon appears to have first dibs and Sony is going so far as to stop production and sales of its benchmark model to accommodate this. Obviously Nikon is willing to pay a premium for Sony's fab and we see that in D3 prices.
I highly doubt the relatively limited production runs and stitching costs of the FF sensor are going to find themselves on the market to other vendors, not when it appears that the development is proprietary to Nikon design. I suspect this is a lock-in agreement and the Sony FF sensor could never be made available to Ricoh/Pentax or anyone else for that matter.
Quote: It sounds like you're advocating Pentax keep making past mistakes, tied to severe risk-aversion.
There's far more potential to bleed money (see your first point about Ricoh "investing") in FF than there is to expand the user base and gross revenues through objectives like the Q.
Quote: Honestly - if I shared your pessimistic view about Pentax's potential k-mount future under Ricoh - and I have my doubts about that K-mount future locked in in a soon-to-be-mirrorless-dominated tier like aps-c - I'd sell all my Pentax equipment as fast as I could and get out while the getting was good.
The k-mount in APS-C will survive for quite some time. The EVF/OVF SLT debate is where the DSLR market is headed. The APS-C vs. FF debate is essentially over because of sensor prices and gross sales volumes. The FF market simply cannot grow fast enough at current price points to cover new entrants.
The question for Pentax is how to keep k-mount DSLR going while moving towards a mirrorless line, likely at APS-C. They have to wait for FF sensors prices to drop substantially to be a player there, so I suspect any APS-C Pentax mount for mirrorless will do what the A-mount did and not change.
Quote: Statements like that have the feel of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It's all about the price. This is completely beyond the control of Ricoh, big as they are, or Pentax. These sensor fabs cost hundreds of millions of $$, and to amortize their costs you need consumer/prosumer price points and high volumes. Canikon can offer 3-6 bodies and good volumes for that market and that leaves precious little room for Sony and virtually none for Pentax. Flickr isn't exactly scientific but the there's a lot of data points there, but it demonstrates decisively that the gap between Canikon and other players in FF is vast. From a market perspective, it's insurmountable.