Sorry Aristophanes, your reply is full of assumptions. I appreciate your efforts though
(Disclaimer: I have my fair share of assumptions, but at least I do not refer to a worldwide FF market or FF sales percentages compared to APS-C as Pentax has nothing to do with the current FF market divided by the big two).
Originally posted by Aristophanes Who is unsatisfied with their D700!
That camera will go down as one of the great classics.
Maybe, but not for users of old glass. Please try to understand the appeal of the current mirrorless market. It's not because of the lack of the mirror, but the fact that all sorts of lenses fit those cameras, both old and new. Nikon is not known for being highly adaptable to all sorts of glass. There's a reason indie filmmakers prefer Canon. Nikon has the worst registration distance in the market.
Quote: FF cameras are priced high to make a profit where sales volumes are low and to make up ground where lens development is slow, costly, and expensive as well.
Like developing FF lenses is rocket science. It's a surprise Pentax still exists after developing all those great FF lenses!
Quote: A Pentax FF camera will be a large beast (MZ-D big) with SR and PD AF plus space for WR, power. video, etc. All the pro controls. It will be the same size as the A900, D700, and so on. Maybe they can squeeze it down to the D300 size. Maybe.
Sorry, those are all assumptions. FF does not necessarily mean that the camera needs to be big. MZ-D size: no way. Please try to understand Pentax's history and traditions.
Quote: Any such camera will go to market at between $2,500 and $3,500 which automatically prices it waaaay out of the range of "shitloads" of units. Sony could not sell that many with the A850, so what makes everyone think Pentax has more market reach. FF sales from Canikon are very low compared to APS-, as in 5% of the total.
Please try to understand Pentax' market segment. 5% of Canikon FF sales does not mean that the same percentage applies to Pentax. You know how many APS-C models Canikon are selling; those numbers way outreach Pentax APSC sales. However, the Pentax market is completely different. The FF percentage could be a whopping 15% or more.
Quote: So the sales volumes at that price point are low and the sensor alone (if available;likely not as Sony is the only available supplier and they look to have a sweetheart deal with Nikon already) is $1,000 per unit. And another $500 for distribution, marketing, support, warranty, software, etc.
Again, nothing but assumptions. And Sony will sell a FF sensor to anyone willing to pay for them. The Sony semiconductor company has nothing to do with the camera company apart from a close relationship. They would be stupid limiting sales to only a few (or only one) camera maker.
Quote: And what of profit? The shareholders are so entitled. Add 20% margins to the mothership plus the dealer's 10%.
That's where Ricoh comes into play
Quote: Demand is a function of the price. I do not see that demand because the price is far too high. There are simply too few consumers willing to shell out $3,000 for a camera body. It's a tiny, tiny market even in our fantasy Pentaxland.
Please try to understand the Pentax user from an historical and functional standpoint, not from an arbitrary price level.
Quote: And then there's lenses. And the fact that the whole DSLR concept with OVF is threatened by mirrorless, which shrinks market share even more as at least some DSLR users will irrevocably abandon the SLR form factor and OVF.
Now you understand why I wrote "FF cameras" and not "FF DSLR's". I never mentioned DSLR in my original post
Quote: FF is not a growth market and there's no profit selling to a guy with 30 year-old lenses. You need him to buy a slate of $$$ zoom from 14-300 plus some primes on top of a FF body.
Assumptions, assumptions...
The appeal of DSLR's and EVIL cameras is also about the availability of both old and new glass. Pentax could also see this as a business opportunity. Didn't a Pentax official state that the APS-C line was more or less complete? Do you really think they are planning to launch more and more APS-C lenses?
Quote: I cannot see Ricoh/Pentax offering FF until sensor prices drop corresponding to APS-C hitting a development wall. Not for a few thousand units per year. The economics just do not work out right now.
I want hard facts, not assumptions
Last edited by Asahiflex; 08-03-2011 at 10:28 AM.