Originally posted by Asahiflex I find it interesting that in the case of Pentax everything is considered economically viable, from the 645D down to the APS-C series and the Pentax Q and the compacts. But a FF isn't?
It makes sense.
Theoretically the Q and the 645D have market segments all to themselves. That's where any manufacturer wants to be. I have doubts about the Q, but the 645D is solid.
APS-C was/is the dominant sensor form factor produced en masse due to production cost and demand meeting at the right price points for broad sales. Now there are multiple suppliers with competition, though Sony makes the better CMOS sensors. Sony has to sell in volume to match Canon's output. That means they have to supply different brands.
You can sell APS-C in volume and still make profits, even for Pentax with 4.5% market share. You can price 645D at profitable numbers. The Q is over-pried and a gamble. We'll see.
But FF has a very expensive sensor with limited supply and really only Sony can provide a video-capable CMOS excelling in low light. There is no economy of scale nor demand enough to drive the cost down right now. So in 2010 no one saw fit to release a new model, and Sony dropped its loss leader A850 moving the average price of FF cameras up.
I doubt Pentax can get into the current gen of sensors from Sony for the D4/D800 (late as they are to market due to the earthquake). That means if Pentax does tool up for FF it would likely be the gen following, so 3 years from now before and announcement, and closer to 5 years before delivery.
Are there other CMOS, low-light sensor suppliers for FF besides Sony? Only Canon, and they don't supply externally. Kodak for CCD, and Samsung has no FF system, nor Panasonic.
The spanner in the works here is mirrorless and whether the k-mount in FF has growth potential in the face of that, or a new mount is required.
Originally posted by Class A So why is SONY not protecting its own alpha line APS-C DSLR sales by not selling the fantastic 16.3MP sensor to Pentax? Why does your "protection" theory only work for FF sensors but not APS-C sensors?
Because APS-C makes its $$$ for Sony on volume sales while FF makes it on restricted volume margins. There's huge demand for APS-C cameras having driven almost all DSLR growth, and very low demand for FF sensors.
Going by Flickr stats, the old Nikon D90 alone has around 30,000 in the groups compared to the D700 and D3 FF models coming in at half that combined. All Nikon groups for APS-C are over 200,000 members while the entire FF assembly is still at 15,000.
And the tilt is even more pronounced towards Canon's APS-C vs. FF.
The ratio looks to be for every 100 units of APS-C there's 4.5 FF.
Why? Price. That's 99% of the explanation, even if all these brands have huge amounts of legacy glass.
Originally posted by Class A Falk has provided good reasons as to why the big two are happy with how things are. They don't need to create competition for themselves which would eat into their FF camera margins.
Falk is right. Thom Hogan and the Sony camp see this as well.
Quote: Pentax is in a different boat. They can shake things about without hurting themselves. And no, I don't believe that Pentax is in the same position at Sony. Different lens prices, different customer base.
Pentax has zero ability to "shake things up". Have you seen the buffers for a Mark II data dump? And a PDAF array in a D700?
These are physically big items because they have to be. The capacity to sell FF based on a smaller form factor is simply not there, not if features like SR are incorporated, not to mention other "pro" attributes. The FF mirror box is basically unalterable if a DSLR. The whole concept that Pentax has some magic fairy dust to make a smaller FF DSLR is nonsense because the dimensions of certain components are beyond Pentax's control. Pentax cannot make a $3,000 FF model that has no SR, slower AF than a D700, and slower data speeds than the competition, all to make a marginally less intrusive form factor, while still requiring big glass. They'd lose their shirts. The smaller form factor FF concept is a dead end.
That leaves mirrorless, with no k-mount and no OVF. Or pellicle to move to EVF and retain k-mount. These are not easy choices for Pentax to make. But I think Pentax needs to wait and see what other players do and how they do it. Sony is more likely to experiment.
All DSLR customers come from the same pool. One cannot make the argument that Pentax is different, and then warn about how many Pentaxians move to Nikon for FF! Clearly, when money and features and value are up for discussion, there is little real difference between the brands.
Quote: Just a quick question: Which APS-C camera do you think Pentax will be able to sell to current K-5 owners? The sensor is close to perfect regarding noise. I doubt that many will want to have more MP as the files will just eat away storage without any practical benefit for most in terms of resolution.
K-5 Super. Better AF system. Stronger video options. Longer warranty. Work on QC. Lower the price. Get some market share back. Lenses.
DSLR innovation now is about incremental changes.
Quote: I think rather sooner than later Pentax will have to go FF in order to give current DSLR owners something to aspire to / buy.
I don't think there's an FF sensor available to Pentaxin the current cycle. I think, like Olympus, Pentax will have work on their current offerings and innovate with smaller sensors until the FF cost curve moves towards players with smaller market share.