Originally posted by Aristophanes ... The problem for Pentax is price. Nikon volumes mean a much lower price (say $650 per sensor) where Pentax's .25% of the volume would translate into a substantially higher price (maybe $1,200 per sensor).
Before you build on top of this speculative card
, I'd like to point out that it's shaky.
Mr Hogan:
"...
Plenty of sensors exist, but in Pentax's volume, we're talking about US$500 or more for every sensor."
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Quote: The whole point of supply exclusives is to prevent a marginal competitor from breaking into your market on the coattails of your investments. Nikon's deal with Sony is likely structured that way.
I think much of your argument seems to be distilling down to a core dependency: Nikon scoring a deal with Sony that goes beyond any sensors they've co-developed with Sony - beyond where their IP ends. To me this seems to be a very shaky assumption.
Quote: ... why sell to Pentax and muddy up the high margins by adding more competition?
There's a contradiction embedded here - if Nikon enjoys a break on margins because of volume, a Pentax deal would represent an even slightly higher margin per-unit
for Sony.
Quote: A Pentax FF could also take APS-C sales away as people will buy either a Pentax APS-C or an FF model, but not both.
Most FF buyers are upgrading from aps-c, not leaping in from the P&S tier, so they've already bought a higher-end aps-c body. A FF offering would catch those that will either 1) go to CaNikon for their next upgrade, or 2) just sit tight and not upgrade to anything, as the next aps-c body doesn't really represent anything more than an incremental upgrade.
Quote: The big myth in this argument for Pentax FF is that Sony makes sensors and then shops them around. Not so; certainly not with FF (nor Koda with their MF's for the 645D and Leica's M9). The customers and the suppliers work through the design from shop drawing stage to production, including shared credit and developmental overhead. This is how Thom Hogan and others have portrayed the Sony/Nikon FF design system. It's common in industrial design.
Mr Hogan, again:
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As far as I know Sony Imaging is still fighting the battle to release another full frame body in 2012. For Sony Semiconductor its really a matter of whether or not there's a paying customer. The basic ability is already in their system now. Scaling up APS sensors (or down for that matter) is simple enough to do."
The sensors Nikon developed with Sony in the past are not going to end up in Pentax cameras - we can move beyond that. What's left, in 2012, is looking pretty attractive.
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