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01-05-2007, 04:47 PM   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by *isteve Quote
A small question...
Given the fact that Hoya seems to like a safe portfolio with excellent margins and profitability, would the imaging division not seem to be a bit risky by Hoya standards? Of is there some technology spinoff between imaging and medical?
Hi Steve,

You kind of answered part of your first question with your second question.

The honest answer to your first question is I don't know. But let me try to clarify things...

I do not want to give the impression that Hoya's asset base is "safe". The semiconductor equipment industry is cyclical. Eyeglasses are subject to changes in fashion and technology. Moving factories to low cost geographies can have country and startup risks. And so on. I would say that Hoya has managed its assets well and earned a good return on them in the last several years.

But these good returns were earned based on decisions made probably 3-5+ years ago. The company has to take calculated bets now in order to plan for the next several years+. Regarding the imaging business, it has come a long way in the last several years and this momentum is obviously continuing with the K10. If the imaging division management can put together a business plan for the next 5 years, building on their current strength, why wouldn't Hoya go along with it?

As long as the return potential is commensurate with risk.

Now, where's my FA200/2.8?

01-06-2007, 04:18 AM   #17
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QuoteOriginally posted by tranq78 Quote
Hi Steve,

You kind of answered part of your first question with your second question.

The honest answer to your first question is I don't know. But let me try to clarify things...

I do not want to give the impression that Hoya's asset base is "safe". The semiconductor equipment industry is cyclical. Eyeglasses are subject to changes in fashion and technology. Moving factories to low cost geographies can have country and startup risks. And so on. I would say that Hoya has managed its assets well and earned a good return on them in the last several years.

But these good returns were earned based on decisions made probably 3-5+ years ago. The company has to take calculated bets now in order to plan for the next several years+. Regarding the imaging business, it has come a long way in the last several years and this momentum is obviously continuing with the K10. If the imaging division management can put together a business plan for the next 5 years, building on their current strength, why wouldn't Hoya go along with it?

As long as the return potential is commensurate with risk.

Now, where's my FA200/2.8?
Yes I see your point. Indeed its not unusual for large companies to maintain small specialist divisions for reasons other than pure profit - for instance the name "Pentax" has far more Kudos in the consumer field than Hoya and that makes it an asset in its own right.
I agree that an imaging business with a good business plan and decent investment will likely be maintained (I'm sure that was a condition of the merger). I also think that the DSLR market is suffering from a woeful lack of imagination and competition and there is therefore plenty of opportunity for an ambitious player to gain significant share provided they have access to the right (electronics) technology at the right price. Plus their lens production costs cannot be hurt in any way by this merger.
By the way has anyone established for certain whether Tokina is a Hoya company or are Hoya just shareholders? If Tokina is a full Hoya company there is huge opportunity here for a low cost OEM/third party lens production business using the same designs with 2 price points and badges. VW and Skoda comes to mind.
Perhaps Sigma and Tamron should be as worried as Canon and Nikon?
02-24-2010, 10:30 PM   #18
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Update... in Ned's own words

Here's an interview with Ned Bunnell posted yesterday by Imaging Resource. I am pleased to say that a lot of what Ned talks about is consistent with my original thoughts and conclusions, pre-Hoya merger.

I'm not suggesting I'm psychic, but it's amazing what conclusions one can draw several years earlier by reading the financial statements and trying to understand a company's business strategy. As an aside, investment analysts call this the "mosaic theory", the ability to piece together a conclusion by using various pieces of different information. [And no, mosaic is not what certain internet gurus do when they make annual predicitons that turn out to be specious.]

In my original analysis I came to have enormous respect for Hoya management, and it appears to have been fully justified. Good going Hoya-Pentax!

I can't insert the text of the article due to copyright, but here's the link:

NEWS! - Digital Cameras, Digital Imaging, Digital Photography, Digital Scanners

Enjoy and thanks Ned!

Last edited by tranq78; 02-24-2010 at 10:37 PM.
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