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03-29-2012, 11:00 AM   #106
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Like I said we need to see what the 24mp sensor will hit at. it sounds more like this one is getting the apsc treatment with Sony getting it first while nikon got the 36mp.
based on the 5% of the market argument Pentax would sell about 45000 per year versus the D800 number only (I ignore the D$ since it's pretty obvious Pentax wouldn't impact that market at all)
The real measure needs to be looked at in how Pentax's sales trend. For instance compare the D700/D3100 and look at percentage of sales the D700 was. then do the same with K5/KR. then Compare D700 to D700.
I think because of the difference in how the product is currently sold the K5 will occupy a far great percentage of unit sales than the D 7000 versus the 3100. If tue it shows a willingness to spend more for better in the Pentax community (which goes wildly against the popular perception) now the $1500 price of the K5 may well have been where that tops, OTOH at least amongst current buyers it may just be that they are more driven by value within the category, and if Pentax can represent that value in an Entry level FF (so reality versus the a99 and the D700 and 5d2 for now) then they may well sell more
the assumption you have is that they will not change their share of the market over the next couple of years. If that is what happens with no upward trend then I imagine Ricoh will be ruing the purchase since they didn't buy the company to keep static share numbers they were specific about pursuing canikon numbers (and didn't mention Sony though I'm sure the short term target is to get to Sony numbers, though I think they want to capture most of that from canikon.

At this point I'm really in a wait and see mode and think the first really solid direction indicator will be Photokina. February was just too soon after the deal closed for there to be much on the table that is representative of direction.

03-29-2012, 11:53 AM   #107
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Hopefully I'll have the funds to switch to full frame around this time next year. With that being said, if pentax were to release a fast wide angle lens that is decently sharp in the corners (24 1.4?), I'd stay worth pentax. If they were to release a full frame camera with the same build and image quality as the k5 and then update their fa limited line, I'd stay with pentax. For what I shoot, the only thing I find lacking now is something fast and wide, and a ff k5 with a 31ltd would be my preferred means of getting that.
03-29-2012, 12:07 PM   #108
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QuoteOriginally posted by pinholecam Quote
ISO performance is D7K/K5 like with the only good thing being able to zoom in more due to more MP.
The D800 also seems to hold more details at high ISO over D7K/K5 due to the sheer 'brute force' of having more MP and not by a sensor tech that is a step up of the 16mp sensor used by the latter two.
Not a surprise at all. The photosites are essentially the same size as the D7000/K-5's sensor's. It's getting the same high-ISO performance as the D700 by downsampling (the same thing your eyes do when you look at a print from a few feet away).
03-29-2012, 03:59 PM   #109
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QuoteOriginally posted by eddie1960 Quote
Like I said we need to see what the 24mp sensor will hit at. it sounds more like this one is getting the apsc treatment with Sony getting it first while nikon got the 36mp.
based on the 5% of the market argument Pentax would sell about 45000 per year versus the D800 number only (I ignore the D$ since it's pretty obvious Pentax wouldn't impact that market at all)
The real measure needs to be looked at in how Pentax's sales trend. For instance compare the D700/D3100 and look at percentage of sales the D700 was. then do the same with K5/KR. then Compare D700 to D700.
I think because of the difference in how the product is currently sold the K5 will occupy a far great percentage of unit sales than the D 7000 versus the 3100. If tue it shows a willingness to spend more for better in the Pentax community (which goes wildly against the popular perception) now the $1500 price of the K5 may well have been where that tops, OTOH at least amongst current buyers it may just be that they are more driven by value within the category, and if Pentax can represent that value in an Entry level FF (so reality versus the a99 and the D700 and 5d2 for now) then they may well sell more
the assumption you have is that they will not change their share of the market over the next couple of years. If that is what happens with no upward trend then I imagine Ricoh will be ruing the purchase since they didn't buy the company to keep static share numbers they were specific about pursuing canikon numbers (and didn't mention Sony though I'm sure the short term target is to get to Sony numbers, though I think they want to capture most of that from canikon.

At this point I'm really in a wait and see mode and think the first really solid direction indicator will be Photokina. February was just too soon after the deal closed for there to be much on the table that is representative of direction.
Ricoh has always been happy to be a nine camera maker. They effectively quintupled their non-Japan market share by purchasing Pentax for a song. Do they have aspirations to take on Canon and Nikon? Frankly, I doubt it. That's a risk that would endanger the value of the investment.

You're right, the total marie for Pentax FF would likely be more like 35,000 per year (Nikon has a greater % of the FF market than Canon and Sony and Leica combined), but production may be 100,000 in year 1, and falling substantially thereafter, which brings another problem of sustained production. Keeping the factory lights on and inventory supply chain going for less than 10,000 units/year could be brutal. To keep it all together, they'd have to make sure that their APS-C offerings are still subsidizing the bulk of overhead, so internal cannibalization of the market is another factor.

If taking share from Canon and Nikon is not viable, then Pentax is only counting on natural growth of the whole DSLR market (emerging markets in particular with growing middle classes) and the current k-mount crowd. This is mostly just moving money around amongst the faithful. No net gain in market share.

Which is maybe not a bad thing because that is what both Ricoh and Pentax appear to be good at. The key is, is it enough market overall to make FF happen or is that an investment too far?

I think the only way that FF gets into play for Pentax is if APS-C plateaus and Canikon start competing with Sony on sensor size, all else being equal. Then we'll see downward pressure on FF prices and suddenly Pentax can compete within a much larger consumer base, much as they do with APS-C.

03-29-2012, 04:54 PM - 1 Like   #110
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Contrary to the sentiments expressed earlier in this thread, this is a great time to be a Pentax user. Ricoh is systematically taking the steps necessary to re-establish the brand as a serious make for serious photographers while reducing the components cost by distributing them down-market in interesting bodies like the K-01. The next 24 months are going to be a lot of fun - and a lot of people are going to be very surprised.
03-29-2012, 08:39 PM   #111
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I'd love it if Pentax stuck with aps-c and did that better than anyone else. Trying to best Canon, Nikon & Sony at FF would not be financially sound business practice. I came from the 5D MKII, FF with 21 MP, and in print, my K5 looks every bit as good.
03-29-2012, 09:25 PM   #112
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clavius Quote
I understand quite well. I go on trips where I don't see a power outlet for weeks too. I use aftermarket Chinese D-LI90 at around 7 euro per piece from ebay. For me, it's much more convenient to lug those 5 charged batteries around then a special "bush-charger". Personal taste I guess.

Mind you, the Chinese batteries do go in my grip only. In case they leak, only the cheap Chinese aftermarket grip is ruined.
Speaking of El Cheapo Chinese Grips: I only noticed last week that the ISO button on my K7 Grip from DXExtreme does not work. It's no biggy though, considering that it only cost $54 inc shipping. LOL It probably never worked from day one but I am slack when it comes to some things...

Last edited by bossa; 03-29-2012 at 09:54 PM.
03-29-2012, 09:49 PM   #113
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I can't believe people use market share to determine if Pentax is able to make and market a FF. What was the Pentax market share of the DMF market? That didn't stop them releasing the 645D did it? It's only a matter of what they want to do and if Ricoh will allow it as far as I'm concerned. They redefined the market with the Spotmatic and it's their time again to do likewise because smaller companies have a habit of creating totally new and revolutionary products, if only because their slate is cleaner, as they need to do something creative to survive. Pentax may surprise us yet.


Last edited by bossa; 03-29-2012 at 10:03 PM.
03-29-2012, 09:53 PM   #114
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QuoteOriginally posted by bossa Quote
Pentax may just surprise us yet.
I wouldn't be surprised.
03-29-2012, 10:02 PM   #115
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Anyone who's done a business course will know that the profit is in the add-ons. When you buy a hamburger with the lot it's all the extras that make the real profit for the vendor and anyone making a really great hamburger with the lot at bargain basement prices is going broke ASAP.

A modular FF camera along the lines of the GXR, but designed my Marc Newson (don't bother laughing), would be a killer market move for Pentax. All the extras would add value to the product and the kind of flexibility a Pro needs. Interchangeable VF, articulated LCD, mirrorless, interchangeable sensors and mounts even. Why not release a couple of mount modules for other makers lenses if you don't have a FF line of your own (I know it's not a great idea but Sigma did alright without a camera for years). Anything is possible and 'style' does matter IMHO.

Last edited by bossa; 03-30-2012 at 12:05 AM.
03-29-2012, 10:38 PM   #116
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QuoteOriginally posted by bossa Quote
Anyone who's done a business course will know that the profit is in the add-ons. When you buy a hamburger with the lot it's all the extras that make the real profit for the vendor. Anyone making a really great hamburger with the lot at bargain basement prices is going broke ASAP.

A modular FF camera along the lines of the GXR, but designed my Marc Newson (don't bother laughing), would be a killer market move for Pentax. All the extras would add value to the product and the kind of flexibility a Pro needs. Interchangeable VF, articulated LCD, mirrorless, interchangeable sensors and mounts even. Why not release a couple of mount modules for other makers lenses if you don't have a FF line of your own (I know it's not a great idea but Sigma did alright without a camera for years). Anything is possible and 'style' does matter IMHO.
All the little (and big - Unilateral Pricing) moves Ricoh (PRI) is making suggest restructuring the distribution channel to support a much more developed product offering from Pentax,
03-29-2012, 11:30 PM   #117
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Estimates of demand for FF products here on PF are exaggerated. Pentaxians are no more likely to spend $3,000 on a camera body than a Nikonian or Canonista. FF is a very small market. Tiny, in the big scheme of discretionary consumer spending and small relative to the total buying power of the photographic hobby community.
Your points are valid, if everything is about profit and sales Pentax should just make a K-x for $400 and forget about selling a K-5 or anything else, but the sales of the K-x would be affected if their wasn't a more professional model and an upgrade path like the K-5.

Ford could likely sell way more Ford Focus than it can a GT40 or Mustang, but if they didn't cater to the slightly more premium models, they simply wouldn't have any sales in their lower Focus models in the first place. It's the same reason Pentax make a 645d, not because sales and likely profits on the K-x and cheap plastic primes aren't better, but that having a a top tier model can sell itself alongside the base models, keeping all of the markets working together.

So I believe having a FF would only strengthen Pentax as a brand overall, it's not just about how many full frames you sell, but how many new Pentax users will join Pentax because they have a full line up with room to grow. It's a market, image and a brand as a whole and not just the potential sales of a single vehicle or camera.
03-30-2012, 01:01 AM   #118
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QuoteOriginally posted by bossa Quote
Speaking of El Cheapo Chinese Grips: I only noticed last week that the ISO button on my K7 Grip from DXExtreme does not work. It's no biggy though, considering that it only cost $54 inc shipping. LOL It probably never worked from day one but I am slack when it comes to some things...
Mine, from "Meike battery", does. If the genuine Pentax grip would have some extra features over the aftermarket ones, I would get that instead. Like wifi or bluetooth. Or a bigger/brighter AF assist light.

...But then again, that would force me to buy genuine Pentax D-LI90's too. What if the Chinese ones leak inside an expensive genuine grip!

...Pentax could make so much money off the accessories.
03-30-2012, 01:32 AM   #119
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I was told by a Pentax rep that all of the grips are made in one factory but I don't know if that's true or what. I do know that I'll be buying 2 genuine grips from B&H in a few weeks as I found myself worrying about rain and the little lock tab broke off of one of the battery compartments anyway. The genuine grip costs 2x the B&H price in Oz so it's a pretty appealing offering really.
03-30-2012, 04:43 AM   #120
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QuoteOriginally posted by pinholecam Quote
What would need to be on it to keep you from jumping?
Back to this question. I was looking for an image from a handicapt sporter, Dutch Sittingvolleybalteam, that is going to come in a book about sportswomen at the end of the year.

I made this last year at the EC Sittingvolleyball


So this is made with my Sigma 70-200mm @200mm and F3,2. It is already a crop. To make this picture I would have needed 270mm lens.

When I would have used a D800 (wich would make the high iso performance better) I would have neede a 400mm/f2.8 lens or a 300mm/f2.8 with a 1.4x TC.

Do you have any idea how much such a system would cost? I could also just use a crop and set a 200mm/f2.8 lens on top of this D800 and end up with this same picture.


So I'm still in favor for a top-of-the-line camera with a smaller sensor then FF. APS-H or Large 4/3th or square is all okay with me. There is more market in it for Pentax then just another D800-clone. When it has to be FF, then I prefer just 20 megapixel and not this monster.
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