Originally posted by eddie1960 Like I said we need to see what the 24mp sensor will hit at. it sounds more like this one is getting the apsc treatment with Sony getting it first while nikon got the 36mp.
based on the 5% of the market argument Pentax would sell about 45000 per year versus the D800 number only (I ignore the D$ since it's pretty obvious Pentax wouldn't impact that market at all)
The real measure needs to be looked at in how Pentax's sales trend. For instance compare the D700/D3100 and look at percentage of sales the D700 was. then do the same with K5/KR. then Compare D700 to D700.
I think because of the difference in how the product is currently sold the K5 will occupy a far great percentage of unit sales than the D 7000 versus the 3100. If tue it shows a willingness to spend more for better in the Pentax community (which goes wildly against the popular perception) now the $1500 price of the K5 may well have been where that tops, OTOH at least amongst current buyers it may just be that they are more driven by value within the category, and if Pentax can represent that value in an Entry level FF (so reality versus the a99 and the D700 and 5d2 for now) then they may well sell more
the assumption you have is that they will not change their share of the market over the next couple of years. If that is what happens with no upward trend then I imagine Ricoh will be ruing the purchase since they didn't buy the company to keep static share numbers they were specific about pursuing canikon numbers (and didn't mention Sony though I'm sure the short term target is to get to Sony numbers, though I think they want to capture most of that from canikon.
At this point I'm really in a wait and see mode and think the first really solid direction indicator will be Photokina. February was just too soon after the deal closed for there to be much on the table that is representative of direction.
Ricoh has always been happy to be a nine camera maker. They effectively quintupled their non-Japan market share by purchasing Pentax for a song. Do they have aspirations to take on Canon and Nikon? Frankly, I doubt it. That's a risk that would endanger the value of the investment.
You're right, the total marie for Pentax FF would likely be more like 35,000 per year (Nikon has a greater % of the FF market than Canon and Sony and Leica combined), but production may be 100,000 in year 1, and falling substantially thereafter, which brings another problem of sustained production. Keeping the factory lights on and inventory supply chain going for less than 10,000 units/year could be brutal. To keep it all together, they'd have to make sure that their APS-C offerings are still subsidizing the bulk of overhead, so internal cannibalization of the market is another factor.
If taking share from Canon and Nikon is not viable, then Pentax is only counting on natural growth of the whole DSLR market (emerging markets in particular with growing middle classes) and the current k-mount crowd. This is mostly just moving money around amongst the faithful. No net gain in market share.
Which is maybe not a bad thing because that is what both Ricoh and Pentax appear to be good at. The key is, is it enough market overall to make FF happen or is that an investment too far?
I think the only way that FF gets into play for Pentax is if APS-C plateaus and Canikon start competing with Sony on sensor size, all else being equal. Then we'll see downward pressure on FF prices and suddenly Pentax can compete within a much larger consumer base, much as they do with APS-C.