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04-23-2012, 10:42 AM   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by Adam Quote
Nobody knows. What we do know is that a full-frame is quite likely being developed, and if this is true, we'll see it in the coming year.
quite likely? lol that's a good one

04-23-2012, 11:21 AM   #17
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Yeah, lots of inside sources are saying that it's actively being developed.

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04-23-2012, 01:16 PM   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by Adam Quote
Nobody knows. What we do know is that a full-frame is quite likely being developed, and if this is true, we'll see it in the coming year.
Do you have any real evidence for this statement? I've heard lots of speculation and rumors, but still no hint from Ricoh-Pentax itself.

I don't doubt that someone, somewhere in Tokyo is keeping his/her eye on the FF market segment. Someone else, in engineering is almost certainly keeping an eye on the available sensors, shutters, etc., that Pentax would need to buy to build a FF. Someone is probably even doing preliminary designs and possible rough prototypes. That would only be good business sense.

But, I have heard nothing that gives me any confidence that Pentax is actually developing a FF product, with the intent of selling it.

I understand the techical advantages of FF. I also have no doubt that Pentax has the engineering skills to produce one. I still don't believe that they're going to do it.

The reasons have nothing to do with advantages of FF or engineering skills. It has everything to do with the camera market, specifically the FF segment and the general market direction.

FF is a rather small segment of the digital camera market. It doesn't seem to be getting a lot bigger either. Canon and Nikon have the FF market pretty well sewn up. Even Sony, with much deeper pockets than Pentax, and a penchant for wanting to dominate any market they enter, has not been able to dislodge C and N, in this market segment.

The mirrorless market, on the other hand, is just getting started. There is no clearly dominant player. Pentax has released the Q and K-01 mirrorless cameras. The Q is incredibly tiny. The K-01 is the only milc on the market that can use legacy lenses without an adapter. Whether either design strategy will thrive is still unkown.

I think that there is a lot more money to be made in the mirrorless market than in the FF market. I also think that Pentax stands a hugely better chance of becoming a big player in a growing milc market, than they do in the FF segment.

Pentax-Ricoh, like all corporations, is not in the business to make cameras. They are in business to make money. Building cameras is just the way they make money. I think that, for the foreseeable future, mirrorless cameras offer a much greate return on investment for Pentax, than does FF.

Pentax isn't big enough to take on Canon, Nikon or Sony head-to-head, even with Ricoh behind them. Pentax' best bet is to "hit 'em where they ain't", by creating cameras that aren't quite like any others. I think that's their strategy with the Q and K-01. I'm not sure how Pentax could do that in the FF market: perhaps a FF milc? But would that fly?

While I have no desire for a FF camera, myself, I would love to be proven wrong. As long as it doesn't put Pentax out of business.
04-23-2012, 01:58 PM   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by noblepa Quote
Do you have any real evidence for this statement? I've heard lots of speculation and rumors, but still no hint from Ricoh-Pentax itself.

I don't doubt that someone, somewhere in Tokyo is keeping his/her eye on the FF market segment. Someone else, in engineering is almost certainly keeping an eye on the available sensors, shutters, etc., that Pentax would need to buy to build a FF. Someone is probably even doing preliminary designs and possible rough prototypes. That would only be good business sense.

But, I have heard nothing that gives me any confidence that Pentax is actually developing a FF product, with the intent of selling it.

I understand the techical advantages of FF. I also have no doubt that Pentax has the engineering skills to produce one. I still don't believe that they're going to do it.

The reasons have nothing to do with advantages of FF or engineering skills. It has everything to do with the camera market, specifically the FF segment and the general market direction.

FF is a rather small segment of the digital camera market. It doesn't seem to be getting a lot bigger either. Canon and Nikon have the FF market pretty well sewn up. Even Sony, with much deeper pockets than Pentax, and a penchant for wanting to dominate any market they enter, has not been able to dislodge C and N, in this market segment.

The mirrorless market, on the other hand, is just getting started. There is no clearly dominant player. Pentax has released the Q and K-01 mirrorless cameras. The Q is incredibly tiny. The K-01 is the only milc on the market that can use legacy lenses without an adapter. Whether either design strategy will thrive is still unkown.

I think that there is a lot more money to be made in the mirrorless market than in the FF market. I also think that Pentax stands a hugely better chance of becoming a big player in a growing milc market, than they do in the FF segment.

Pentax-Ricoh, like all corporations, is not in the business to make cameras. They are in business to make money. Building cameras is just the way they make money. I think that, for the foreseeable future, mirrorless cameras offer a much greate return on investment for Pentax, than does FF.

Pentax isn't big enough to take on Canon, Nikon or Sony head-to-head, even with Ricoh behind them. Pentax' best bet is to "hit 'em where they ain't", by creating cameras that aren't quite like any others. I think that's their strategy with the Q and K-01. I'm not sure how Pentax could do that in the FF market: perhaps a FF milc? But would that fly?

While I have no desire for a FF camera, myself, I would love to be proven wrong. As long as it doesn't put Pentax out of business.
they have the mirrorless segment covered with 3 different designs for now (Q, K-01 and GXR system), there are 3 dslr on the way most certainly according to the russian rep at the russian show and a hint about a 4th that may or may not be FF. Pentax japan in an interview in January said a 4 camera DSLR line was the minimum that made sense (leaving that elusive 4th spot open)
Pentax may not be Big enough now to take on Canon or Nikon or even Sony, but you don't get big enough by shying away from the battle and limiting production Hoya did that and cut market share by 50%. Rico is big enough to take on Canon though (and they already do and dominate them in the Copier industry)

I think many people underestimate what Ricoh Pentax is capable of doing/becoming. Their stated goal for the next year according to the Russians is to triple camera sales - that's right TRIPLE. you don't do that with a couple of models. It takes 3 things to achieve this the cpability, the capital and the Will to do it. Pentax with the apparent return of many of the engineers Hoya canned has the capability, Ricoh most definitely has the capital, what remains is the will. By year end we should have a good read on that

04-23-2012, 05:41 PM   #20
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QuoteOriginally posted by noblepa Quote
Do you have any real evidence for this statement? I've heard lots of speculation and rumors, but still no hint from Ricoh-Pentax itself.
Perhaps, but if event if I did, I wouldn't be able to share the specifics.

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04-24-2012, 05:19 AM   #21
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QuoteOriginally posted by Adam Quote
Perhaps, but if event if I did, I wouldn't be able to share the specifics.
that's evil Adam, you've just set a whole new level of speculation in motion
04-24-2012, 08:27 AM   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by eddie1960 Quote
they have the mirrorless segment covered with 3 different designs for now (Q, K-01 and GXR system), there are 3 dslr on the way most certainly according to the russian rep at the russian show and a hint about a 4th that may or may not be FF. Pentax japan in an interview in January said a 4 camera DSLR line was the minimum that made sense (leaving that elusive 4th spot open)
Pentax may not be Big enough now to take on Canon or Nikon or even Sony, but you don't get big enough by shying away from the battle and limiting production Hoya did that and cut market share by 50%. Rico is big enough to take on Canon though (and they already do and dominate them in the Copier industry)

I think many people underestimate what Ricoh Pentax is capable of doing/becoming. Their stated goal for the next year according to the Russians is to triple camera sales - that's right TRIPLE. you don't do that with a couple of models. It takes 3 things to achieve this the cpability, the capital and the Will to do it. Pentax with the apparent return of many of the engineers Hoya canned has the capability, Ricoh most definitely has the capital, what remains is the will. By year end we should have a good read on that

You're right, the Q, K-01 and GXR are good starts in the milc market. But the Q and K-01 are first attempts. They need follow-on products that address market shortcomings. Ricoh-Pentax still does not dominate the milc market. No one does, yet.

I have no doubt whatsoever that Pentax could produce a first-rate FF camera. I also know that Ricoh has pretty deep pockets. I also would reiterate my statement that Sony, with even deeper pockets than Ricoh, has not made much of a dent in the Nikon/Canon dominance of the FF market. So, its not simply a matter of throwing money or engineering resources at the problem.

I've heard those rumors out of Russia. Frankly, I take them with a huge grain of salt. Some of the posters making these claims have lousy track records for making correct predictions. Pentax-Japan has a record of playing it close to the vest, not even telling their national distributors about new products until they're announced.

Another rumor I've heard is that Pentax is going to introduce a new camera that directly connects to the internet. That fits in with a strategy that I believe Ricoh is following, of finding products with no direct competition. I admit, though, that the only evidence I have for this claim is the Q and the K-01. No one has cameras that are exactly like the Q, K-01 or GXR. In a highly saturated market, that's the way to break out, by innovating and producing products that make people take notice, not by trying to compete head-to-head with entrenched juggernauts like C & N.

Canon has virtually no presence in the milc market, yet. Nikon has some, but in that market segment, they're just one player among many. I still think that this is where Pentax will put their major investment for the next year or so.

Tripling their revenue requires one more thing: manufacturing capacity. In the past, it has appeared that Pentax only has the capacity for two dslrs. When the K-r was introduced, there was a time that the K-x was out of production and the K-r was not yet shipping. The same was true for the K-7 to K-5 transition. I have heard no rumors or statments that Pentax has spent a lot of money expanding their factories in Vietnam or the Philipines.
04-24-2012, 08:48 AM   #23
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Sony did at one point have loads of cash to throw at things. that sadly is no longer the case they have been losing money hand over fist lately. Ricoh OTOH has capital to invest, is the leader in it's main market which is ow headed into contraction mode. more than Sony they have a big incentive to invest heavily and pursue dominance as they need to replace the revenue that will begin evaporating in the copier market.

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