[twitch]

Yes, the tiny, almost insignificant percentage of customers who buy FF cameras will go elsewhere. I'd personally rather Pentax *not* waste their precious R&D resources and cannibalize their APS-C offerings by moving to that niche format. That tiny percentage of people who shoot FF are more likely to choose Canikon anyhow for other reasons.

Marc, I have to disagree because I don't think it is a tiny percentage, and the people jumping are the people willing to spend big on (now non-pentax) photography gear so Pentax is losing that revenue, and the lack of FF offering has a real impact on how Pentax is perceived by photography hobbiests.

Any investment in FF lenses also benefits APS-C shooters anyway, I bet any FF Pentax 70-200/2.8 would be bought by APS-C shooters too so this is hardly a waste of precious R&D.

[Pål Jensen]

A lot of users have jumped ship and not just because of FF.

Pentax fortune is not defined by those who jump ship for FF, but how the cameras they actually manufacture sells...

[Marc Sabatella]

Marc, I have to disagree because I don't think it is a tiny percentage

Actual sales figures posted here countless times say otherwise.

[twitch]

Actual sales figures posted here countless times say otherwise.

I haven't seen those, but I'm guessing year on year it's growing as a %, and right at the moment I bet a lot of FF cameras are being sold.

[hoanpham]

I wont say jump ship. I got several dslr to use with other lenses, but sony nex is the ultimate body for optic junkies.
Full frame? Wait few more month or get a canon 5dm2 used, why? Lenses can be adapted. Focus screen can be replaced, relatively cheap.
Need af? Go nikon, they are known for af.
As i see it, only pentax deliver most for the value.

[eddie1960]

Yes, the tiny, almost insignificant percentage of customers who buy FF cameras will go elsewhere. I'd personally rather Pentax *not* waste their precious R&D resources and cannibalize their APS-C offerings by moving to that niche format. That tiny percentage of people who shoot FF are more likely to choose Canikon anyhow for other reasons.

Unfortunately, it is probably inevitable that Pentax will some day produce an FF camera, and the end of the line of the cameras that the vast majority of users care about would probably not be too far off. So the production of an FF camera will probably hasten the *need* for me to jump ship.

If there is a way to convince Pentax *not* to pursue this fool's errand, I'd like to know. But I am somewhat resigned to the fact that Pentax will ultimately risk suicide by betting the farm on a game they cannot possibly win.
.

From the looks of what is happening (with for instance the rumoured sub $2000 FF D600 Nikon and a rumour Canon has a model to combat this being prepared as well) not producing FF is the suicidal move. Production of FF does not mean they will stop making apsc Marc so how does that hasten your need to jump ship. FF will almost certainly include a crop mode option for your DA lens as well giving the option to shoot either way.
The nature of Technology is it comes down in price and things move forward. If Pentax doesn't make FF they are marginalizing themselves. At some point of course all the enthusiast and up models will end up FF as sensor costs drop, but for at least the next couple of model seasons there will likely be a high end apsc as a complement to the higher priced FF (and possibly a lesser featured FF at the same price as the higher end apsc.
The problem with your view is t doesn't take into account Ricoh's desire to grow the brand (dramatically, somewhere i read they plan on Selling3 times as many DSLR in the next year - an aggressive target that will rely on broader assortments than current model years had)

While I personally like the Idea of a FF I will probably not be the first in line but that is more of a money issue than anything else. Others will be able to afford it up front.

[Pål Jensen]

From the looks of what is happening (with for instance the rumoured sub $2000 FF D600 Nikon and a rumour Canon has a model to combat this being prepared as well) not producing FF is the suicidal move. Production of FF does not mean they will stop making apsc Marc so how does that hasten your need to jump ship. FF will almost certainly include a crop mode option for your DA lens as well giving the option to shoot either way.
The nature of Technology is it comes down in price and things move forward. If Pentax doesn't make FF they are marginalizing themselves. .

How can not participating in the sub 5% of the market be suicidal? I don't think sensor prices are coming down significantly as they are not the subject for miniaturization as other chips are. And even if they were APS will decrease even more in price. The only way to marginalize yourself in the DSLR market is not make lots of entry and mid level APS DSLR's...

[eddie1960]

How can not participating in the sub 5% of the market be suicidal? I don't think sensor prices are coming down significantly as they are not the subject for miniaturization as other chips are. And even if they were APS will decrease even more in price. The only way to marginalize yourself in the DSLR market is not make lots of entry and mid level APS DSLR's...

you have the mistaken assumption that the FF market will stay sub 5%. When it was a market of $3000 plus cameras that would be true. Thing is this looks like it will be the year we see cameras @ $2000 (or a lot less if you believe the D600 rumours) that changes the entire market paradigm Pal. Not compeeing and not planning to compete in this market will be suicide. deciding in2 years it's time to jump in will be too late. If the pricing predictions are accurate (where there will be at least 2 if not 3 sub $2000 cameras) Pentax sitting with a $1500 apsc and no FF option will be in deep trouble.
Once again I can see why you may not want one, but you are a sample of 1. Ricoh seems to be unfocussed on returning Pentax to a full line competitive brand FF is part of that whether you like it or not. Pricing and market forces will dictate that FF becomes more prevalent over the next 3-4 years and likely it will become the enthusiast market standard like it is now a Pro market standard, waiting for that to happen and letting canikon get the entire market is suicide IMO.
Entry level is very important, but it is also lower margin and has serious competition from mirrorless as well as DSLR from the big guys. K-30 I think is a good shot across the bow of the midmarket, we need to see what happens win the entry and the enthusiast ends (and whether there is another mirrorless coming or a k mountor for the mirrorless enthusiast market)
Entry and mid are the volume drivers, upper mid enthusiast and higher are the profit centers drivers both are important. FF is just one aspect of this but one that will increasingly be an important aspect. I see it all the time from people who talk about it. in many cases these same people haven't mastered what they own...that isn't the issue they want it because they are searching for the holy grail
I know there are few things I cannot achieve with my apsc (and for those I have Medium format film for one) it still doesn't stop me wanting a FF option. at some point like many before me I will decide I want that option and move brands (likley to Canon despite my aversion to them because i could take my lens collection to that platform - though if I came into a little cash it would be the jump back to Nikon - and i regret not staying with them when i came back to Pentax with the MZ5 after my gear was stolen sometimes)

[Ratmagiclady]

Mamiya.

Nikon *maybe,* but if Pentax don't work out I'm back to film. Canon FD still works. And maybe like a Fuji X100.

[Edvinas]

Yes, the tiny, almost insignificant percentage of customers who buy FF cameras will go elsewhere. I'd personally rather Pentax *not* waste their precious R&D resources and cannibalize their APS-C offerings by moving to that niche format. That tiny percentage of people who shoot FF are more likely to choose Canikon anyhow for other reasons.

Well, I know a few people who went for Canikon only because "Pentax doesn't have an upgrade path to FF".
So, lack of FF camera is even hurting APS-C DSLRs sales. And if those low price full frames rumours are true, lack of FF DSLR will hurt even more.

[Pål Jensen]

you have the mistaken assumption that the FF market will stay sub 5%. When it was a market of $3000 plus cameras that would be true. Thing is this looks like it will be the year we see cameras @ $2000 (or a lot less if you believe the D600 rumours) that changes the entire market paradigm Pal. Not compeeing and not planning to compete in this market will be suicide. deciding in2 years it's time to jump in will be too late. If the pricing predictions are accurate (where there will be at least 2 if not 3 sub $2000 cameras) Pentax sitting with a $1500 apsc and no FF option will be in deep trouble.

The idea that FF is going to rule the world, which we incidentally have heard for a decade now, and the mirorrless is going to do the same is all nonsense (proven by the fact that DSLR sales increases in spite of mirrorless - for Canon the latest figures are 30%). It is about options and fragmentation of the market created by the freedom of design that digital provides, not replacement of something else. APS is in no trouble. FF markeshare potential, except for short burst of coinciding new releases, is about 10% of the marked maximum. APS and FF are two different formats. Price will forever be the single most important sales factor. The fact is that the majority of consumer neither wants or need full frame. If there were serious image defects inherited in formats smaller than FF there might be a point. If anything, the bulk of the market will gravitate to smaller formats the better the sensor gets. Both Nikon and Canon will continue to make high-end APS cameras...
BTW Theres no time when it is too late to jump in....

[westmill]

Fisher price for the better autofocus lol

[Pål Jensen]

Well, I know a few people who went for Canikon only because "they don't have an upgrade path to FF" have.
So, lack of FF camera is even hurting APS-C DSLRs sales. And if those low price full frames rumours are true, lack of FF DSLR will hurt even more.

As I have stated above, this is false logic. There are always reason for some to switch to and from this and that, in fact some switch to Pentax as well from Nikon and Canon in spite of no FF or signs of it (you can find them on this forum). You can never fill every hole so that no one deflects. However, you better fill the large holes than the small ones. Pentax success is secured by the sales success of the camera they actually put into the marked, not the ones they don't sell! APS cameras have about 20 times the sales potential of an FF one, even if you're Nikon or Canon, not to mention Pentax.
Not only need Pentax come out with a competitive FF body; a body that need to stay competetitive which means it needs to have an update path similar to Nikon and Canon, they also need to put to the market a substantial number of FF lenses amidst a quite ambitious lens release schedule of APS, 645 and Q lenses already on the roadmap.
I'm not agianst the idea of a Pentax FF, I believe it will be here one day, but a high end APS is much less of a suicide attempt than an FF Pentax...

[Wired]

This is why I think if the FF comes to light we won't see a sub $2000 camera. Probably something around $2500.

I'm thinking it will probably have much in common with the D800 with a slight cut in pixel count and advanced features. Like maybe only one SD card slot for example.

Either way the Pentax offering won't be a volume seller like the D800 or 5D mkiii. So why not make it more advanced and not cripple it to make it "affordable"? People who want Pentax FF will pay D800 prices...especially it they are already thinking of one to begin with.

I think we could see an entry/mid/high aps that tips $1500. And then a $2500 FF with a few fast mid priced primes. Maybe a 85, 50, 28 around $450-550 each. We already got the FA limited and macros.

[Laurentiu Cristofor]

(proven by the fact that DSLR sales increases in spite of mirrorless - for Canon the latest figures are 30%)

That would be amazing if it was true. Any links to support these numbers?

The only thing I can find about Canon is their hope to sell more cameras:

The company hopes to sell 9.2 million interchangeable lens cameras and 22 million compact cameras in the next 12 months, up from 7.2 million and 18.2 million respectively. (source)

They hope to sell about 27.7% more, which is close to the figure you quote. Keyword is hope.