[emalvick]

Interesting just had a discussion about brands with a coworker who shoots Nikon. Both of us agree that all the companies are too a point where it is going to be more of a matter of preference when it comes to brand selection.

As for me. I don't think I'll jump ship any time soon. I shot a K10d for roughly 5 years and now I have a relatively new K5 that I've just gotten comfortable using (adjusting from the k10d took longer than I expected). I am hopeful that the K5 will last me 5 years at which point I'll see what's out there and see what is the best brand for my buck.

My guess is that in general the majority of the dSLR market, the portion that uses cropped sensors, is going to evaporate. Cameras like the K01, are only a start of what will likely be a big shift and evolution towards mirrorless cameras. The dSLR market that will remain will likely be FF oriented, but its success is going to require more than 5% market share. To gain more than a 5% market share, those cameras will have to reach the price levels of the current midlevel dSLR market. This is all just a rough guess on my part as I do think this all depends on the competition leading this way. They could just as easily leave the 5% where it is and focus on the mirrorless industry. As it is, I don't think I'd pay for the luxury of FF. I'm not a pro, and I find cameras like the K5 and even the Nikon and Canon equivalent APS-C sensored cameras are sufficient for my liking. I only hope that mirrorless systems evolve to the level of quality we enjoy with the K5. I have a hard time believing I'll be satisfied if there is no optical viewfinder. We'll see.

[Pål Jensen]

My guess is that in general the majority of the dSLR market, the portion that uses cropped sensors, is going to evaporate. Cameras like the K01, are only a start of what will likely be a big shift and evolution towards mirrorless cameras. The dSLR market that will remain will likely be FF oriented, but its success is going to require more than 5% market share. To gain more than a 5% market share, those cameras will have to reach the price levels of the current midlevel dSLR market.

You mix up sensor size with mirrorless or DSLR; two different issues. Sensors smaller will dominate the marked forever, regardless of camera type, because both cameras and lenses will be cheaper and because image quality is better than good enough and on the increase. Mirrorless do not steal customers from DSLR's but from P&S; Canon have just reported 30% increase in DSLR sales and Nikon is making all the DSLR's they can manage. The fact that Canon have not made a mirrorless yet is proof good enough that theeir marketshare is not eroding. If it had they would have been quick to fix it. [they probably will make a mirrorless in due course but that is not because of lost sales of DSLR's]
The DSLR marked is just as price sensitive as the mirrorless marked and hence it will continue to be APS dominated. Even a doubling of FF marketshare yields only 10% share; ie a niche.

[emalvick]

You mix up sensor size with mirrorless or DSLR; two different issues. Sensors smaller will dominate the marked forever, regardless of camera type, because both cameras and lenses will be cheaper and because image quality is better than good enough and on the increase. Mirrorless do not steal customers from DSLR's but from P&S; Canon have just reported 30% increase in DSLR sales and Nikon is making all the DSLR's they can manage. The fact that Canon have not made a mirrorless yet is proof good enough that their market share is not eroding. If it had they would have been quick to fix it. [they probably will make a mirrorless in due course but that is not because of lost sales of DSLR's]
The DSLR marked is just as price sensitive as the mirrorless marked and hence it will continue to be APS dominated. Even a doubling of FF marketshare yields only 10% share; ie a niche.

I differ in opinion... Many people move to dSLR (talking the entry level market) because of a real improvement that is perceived from naive reasons. If you would have read my post, you would have seen that I am talking 5+ years out. I'm not saying that the dSLR market is dying now or that it will die instantly; it won't. Mirrorless cameras aren't there, yet, specifically with respect to a viewfinder. But with Pentax's entries that can utilize the same lenses, it is only a matter of time before the quality of the cameras combined with the ability to use SLR quality glass will take those customers who are jumping directly from P&S to dSLR's to jump to mirrorless instead.

Mirrorless technology is going to cause the lost sales of dSLR's they aren't developing because of loss sales to dSLR's. Companies like Canon, Nikon, Pentax, etc know that a dSLR quality camera without the dSLR moving parts is a win-win for them. As for FF, the reason the FF market is only 5% or even 10% is because of the price, but that price will potentially come down, and if mirrorless really do replace entry-level dSLR's, I can foresee the dSLR market shifting towards FF type sensors in the mid-range. Nikon is already moving this direction with the D600. In other words, the market might split with those that are sticking with SLR's potentially moving into the FF realm. If mirrorless technology can rival dSLR technology at the entry or even mid-level, I don't see where there would be much of a future to APS sized sensors in SLR's except the optical viewfinder.

There are other economics, however, and all I talk about could lead to no increase in FF availability (even if FF sensor costs come down) and the market could just remain at the 5% niche as it is, and the companies could purposely direct the market as they see fit, but I still think the ultimate goal of the industry is to eliminate the mirror-box. That has to be a bit of a liability with respect to warranties.

[Pål Jensen]

Mirrorless technology is going to cause the lost sales of dSLR's they aren't developing because of loss sales to dSLR's. Companies like Canon, Nikon, Pentax, etc know that a dSLR quality camera without the dSLR moving parts is a win-win for them. As for FF, the reason the FF market is only 5% or even 10% is because of the price, but that price will potentially come down, and if mirrorless really do replace entry-level dSLR's, I can foresee the dSLR market shifting towards FF type sensors in the mid-range. Nikon is already moving this direction with the D600. In other words, the market might split with those that are sticking with SLR's potentially moving into the FF realm. If mirrorless technology can rival dSLR technology at the entry or even mid-level, I don't see where there would be much of a future to APS sized sensors in SLR's except the optical viewfinder. .

The premises that mirrorless is the replacement for DSLR's and that FF is a replacement for APS are wrong. Mirrorless technology is also quite misleading as it is a case of removing a feature not adding anything requiering new technology. And whatever feature you can put in a mirrorless findewise you can put in a DSLR as well. People are exagregating the cost of moving parts. Todays manufacturing technology can make moving parts dirt cheap and extremely precise.
Mirrorless, viewfinder design and formats are examples of the fragmentation of the digital camera market and not example of technologies replacing one another. At least not to any more extent that more options give competing over the same money.
I really don't understand your last point as I can see no correlations between optical finders and sensor size.

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Last edited by Pål Jensen; 05-25-2012 at 03:51 PM.

[Laurentiu Cristofor]

The numbers are from Canons 1. quarter 2012 results.

Where from exactly? Can you provide a specific reference (document link, page number, paragraph)? I checked this and this and couldn't find any statement of the sort.

The only thing I find is that overall camera sales (not limited to DSLRs) have increased 4% (year to year increase). Page 12 in first document.

1Q12 was actually down from 4Q11.

[Pål Jensen]

Where from exactly? .

Why this endless whining over this? It's from canon's press conference about the quarterly result.

"Among this market environment, we achieved a nearly 30% increase in unit sales of SLR cameras reflecting strong sales of our entry level models, and strong demand for recently launched camera targeting advanced, amateur users. We also continue to see the best sales for interchangeable lenses."

Toshizo Tanaka (Canon)

[Laurentiu Cristofor]

Why this endless whining over this? It's from canon's press conference about the quarterly result.

"Among this market environment, we achieved a nearly 30% increase in unit sales of SLR cameras reflecting strong sales of our entry level models, and strong demand for recently launched camera targeting advanced, amateur users. We also continue to see the best sales for interchangeable lenses."

Toshizo Tanaka (Canon)

Why are you seeing a request for a reference as whining? I was just asking for an official document supporting that statement - was it so hard to provide a link like this one?

It is strange. The transcript goes (bold is my emphasis):

Please refer to Slide 12. Next, I will discuss our consumer business unit starting with the camera segment. The market overall remained favorable, particularly for the sale of cameras reflecting growth in the emerging market.

Among this market environment, we achieved a nearly 30% increase in unit sales of SLR cameras reflecting strong sales of our entry level models, and strong demand for recently launched camera targeting advanced, amateur users.

But Slide 12 doesn't show any 30% increase (see attachment). It shows a drop from previous quarter. So where is the 30% coming from?

I am not picking on you. I am just curious to see Canon's actual sale numbers.

Attached Images

 

[Fontan]

Why are you seeing a request for a reference as whining? I was just asking for an official document supporting that statement - was it so hard to provide a link like this one?

It is strange. The transcript goes (bold is my emphasis):



But Slide 12 doesn't show any 30% increase (see attachment). It shows a drop from previous quarter. So where is the 30% coming from?

I am not picking on you. I am just curious to see Canon's actual sale numbers.

Yeah. Where is the 30% increase in unit sales? Although I must say, sales are expressed in Yen, not in the # of units sold. At any rate, it doesn't look to me as rosy as Canon guy makes it out to be.

[cosmicheretic]

I sold my K-10D and Tamron 18-250 last week (only have my DA* 16-50 left) and almost bought a Canon 7D today. The K-5 is off my list due to slow low light AF and the D7000 due to over exposure issues. I am trying to hold out for K-30 reviews.

[MrPetkus]

I sold my K-10D and Tamron 18-250 last week (only have my DA* 16-50 left) and almost bought a Canon 7D today. The K-5 is off my list due to slow low light AF and the D7000 due to over exposure issues. I am trying to hold out for K-30 reviews.

I wouldn't simply write off the K5 because you think it has slow low light AF. Pentax AF isn't on par with high-end Canon (>=5DM3) and Nikon (>=D300s) bodies, but it's not slow. Personally, I would choose a K5 over a 7D for low-light technical work. The 7D is a fine camera but it's getting old and the price is too high IMO. Good luck.

[bossa]

You've escaped the brainwashing then.


Bingo! Dumping Pentax for Canon at least allows lens migration (to reportedly sucky bodies). Dumping Pentax for Nee-kon means going to a totally incompatible lens system (with fairly familiar bodies). I don't like the trade-offs.

I wouldn't call a D800E a 'trade-off".

I plan on selling my K-5's, Tamron 17-50 and DA*50-135 for now, keeping the FF capable Pentax lenses I have for awhile until I think I know what's happening. I do hope to buy the K-5 replacement and a FF option as well in the future (GXR FF K-Mount?) but this might easily change once I start really using this D800E with a few lenses. I want to buy a Zeiss 21/2.8 and a couple of Sigma lenses and that will probably be it unless I sell off all my Pentax rig. I need to get rid of my debt ASAP so anything is possible.

[cosmicheretic]

I wouldn't simply write off the K5 because you think it has slow low light AF. Pentax AF isn't on par with high-end Canon (>=5DM3) and Nikon (>=D300s) bodies, but it's not slow. Personally, I would choose a K5 over a 7D for low-light technical work. The 7D is a fine camera but it's getting old and the price is too high IMO. Good luck.

I decided to wait for K-30 reviews as AF speed and accuracy are important to me. I am willing to forego some of the K-5's high end features for this at least temporarily and then may buy the K-5 replacement when it comes out. I am also wondering if the SDM motor in my lens will be a bottleneck in AF speed with the new bodies.

[lesmore49]

Up to the spring of this year, I thought that if I were to switch makers from Pentax, I would go with Canon....I liked the 5D Mk. 11, mostly for the full frame.

But with the Nikon D800 out....also the Canon 5D Mk. 111 out...the camera I would go for is the Nikon D 800. Seems to have the 5D Mk. 111 beat in many areas.

But I note with interest that still the highest rated camera...by Dpreviews is the Pentax K-5 at 83 %...and a Gold star, unless I'm missing something.

I have a K-5 and among the ASP-C crowd...seems to be about the best out there. Not just me, but read the Dpreview test.

I like it. I don't have any plans to switch from Pentax...so far 44 years with Pentax SLR/DSLR's and I'm still not disappointed. BTW, I have other camera makes, Canon (digital), Olympus (film), Mamiya Medium Format (film), Zeiss _Ikon (film), Leica Rangefinder (film)....but I've always had Pentax and Pentax has been my main camera equipment.

[eddie1960]

Up to the spring of this year, I thought that if I were to switch makers from Pentax, I would go with Canon....I liked the 5D Mk. 11, mostly for the full frame.

But with the Nikon D800 out....also the Canon 5D Mk. 111 out...the camera I would go for is the Nikon D 800. Seems to have the 5D Mk. 111 beat in many areas.

But I note with interest that still the highest rated camera...by Dpreviews is the Pentax K-5 at 83 %...and a Gold star, unless I'm missing something.

I have a K-5 and among the ASP-C crowd...seems to be about the best out there. Not just me, but read the Dpreview test.

I like it.

on dxo the D800 scored 95 the highest score of any camera MF included
the DPReview has the K5 winning in some very odd areas
Features (Really???)
Metering and Focus Accuracy (Again Rally???? )
performance and viewfinder lol

sometimes i wonder what their criteria are, not knocking the k5 it is a stellar camera but the d800 is pretty damn fine

Nikon D800 Review: Digital Photography Review

[dylansalt]

After two solid years of use I have yet to have my D7000 overexpose or find its focus accuracy wanting

I have been told the focus and metering of the D800 is quite a step up from the D7000 - holy crap it must be insanely good then!!!