Originally posted by Marc Sabatella Perhaps so, but how did sales of those FF cameras compare to sales of APS-C (and smaller) cameras *from the same manufacturers*? Pentax sells well under 1/10 as many cameras as Canon or Nikon. So it is not really surprising that een their niche products might outsell Pentax' mainstream ones. Also, note that sales figures of consumer grade cameras tend to be diluted because they are often sold in so many different configurations - be sure sure you add up all different kits and colors to get a truer picture of Pentax sales.
In any event, the main points still stand: like Canon and Nikon, Pentax will find only a small percentage of their sales are FF, and a small percentage of an already small percentage of total camera sales is *really* small - very possibly, not enough to recoup the development costs, ever. Meaning Pentax may well lose money on the venture. especially considering my other point - while consumers might have reasons to choose Pentax over the other guys as often as 3% of the time (or whatever their market share currently isn't), their lack of a high end professional support system, combined with lack of third party support for their cameras - I have to believe FF customers would choose Pentax at a significantly lesser rate than even the 3% that do in the APS-C line.
I'm not saying I know for sure development of an FF camera would bankrupt the company - and luckily, Ricoh has some reasonably deep pockets, apparently. But I do think that people who simply assume the spcamera would be a success, or that it would help Pentax as a company, aren't considering the very real risks here. Yes, it is *possible* a Pentax FF camea would succeed just barely well enough to recover its own development coss and make a small profit for the company. It's also *possible* the reverse would be true.
Yes, the fact that we have not seen a FF body (or strong rumour) from Pentax up until now points to the fact that this is not a slam-dunk decision either way, and would require some real commitment especially in the lens-development area, which would require some internal political traction at Pentax-Ricoh to get going.
But there is no way even a completely failed FF initiative would bankrupt the company. While Ricoh has had some bumps in the recent economy, they still have enough cash reserves alone ($2.2 Billion) to bankroll a FF project funded by one year's interest/return on that cash reserve. They could equity-finance, and it's just not a major financial decision based on other things they do, other purchases they've made in the last 5 years (assuming a $50 million cash outlay on top of the $124 million they paid for Pentax to get a FF body and a set of two to four lenses out the door. I think $50 million is a high number, but let's err on the high side.)
Based on Nikon numbers - the D800 is reportedly seeing (conservatively) $1000 per unit profit, which goes towards an ROI schedule. If Pentax puts out a body with $500 per-body profit (which is do-able even paying a per-sensor premium over Nikon's volume discount with Sony,) and sold 1/10 the number of D800's, Pentax would sell around 35,000 bodies the first year. At $500 profit per body, that's $17.5 Million profit in the first year - for bodies alone. The lenses would bring more profits, and they are generally even higher margin. I think it's possible to speculate that Pentax could see a $25 million profit in the first year of a FF body + lens roadmap introduction. This puts the whole initiative in the black in probably under three years, factoring in some drop-off in demand the second year after introduction.
If Pentax could sell 1/8 or 1/5 vs. 1/10 (possible - keep in mind the FF market is different and more sparse than aps-c market,) or if they could realize higher than $500 profit per body, those numbers get even better.
Now, the problem: The body can't suck. It has to be very good, or unique in some way, or the 1/5, 1/8 or even 1/10 D800 numbers become a pipe dream. It has to be affordable - it needs to come in very close or below the D800 and 5DIII. And if the D600 price rumours are true, they basically would have to come out with a FF K-5 with updated AF to compete with that, at lower margins, but still possible to maintain a $500 profit as the body would be much cheaper to develop and produce as well.
So, in other words. your typical old-school camera company exec who just wants to
not screw up, just get his kids through college and retire with no drama... may not sponsor a project like that, because it involves some risk, it involves some engineering follow-through, a very tight QA regimen, and some luck, in the form of no disrupting technologies arriving in the middle of the R&D, throwing everything under the bus.
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