Originally posted by Pål Jensen I don't understand where this "logic" comes from. APS will no more dissapear than FF would dissapear if Pentax sold the 645D for $3000. They are different formats in their own right. Besides, sensors cost money and all else equal the camera with smaller sensors will cost less, use smaller and cheaper lenses. As image quality of smaller sensor is good enough (and improving) for even the most demanding uses theres no quality push for bigger sensors from the majority of consumers. Size and cost (and the other advantages) will keep smaller sensors even more relevant in the future. The idea that FF is a sort of holy grail where anyone eventually end up is hard to fathom.
The game changer is not FF but APS proven by sales. Again, a K-5 have a up to five stop gain in handholdability (thats a lot; pure science fiction a few years back) with a DA* 16-50/2.8 over a D600 with a 24-70/2.8 at the same DOF. It produces 50% larger 1:1 images in macro (1:1 is the same size regardless of format). It focuses closes for the same magnification and the saving in long telephoto magnification and weight are in the thousands of dollars and several kilos respectively. The general consumer is not married to the old film format. Bigger viewfinder and better image quality at a considerable cost both moneywise, in size and versatility is not going to float the majorities boat.
All the things you quote as the same are not. the DOF on a K5 will not be the same on a 24-70 2.8 as the 16-50 2.8. the AOV will be, if the 24-70 is at f4 the DOF will be. However there is the pixel density issue. If the FF is the 36mp sensor and the apsc is the K5 sensor for all intents and purposes they are equals. shoot a 16-50 at 2.8 on it in apsc crop mode and the 36mp will behave the same as the k5. shoot the 24-70 at f4 and you will get the same AOV and DOF but a much larger file (which has it's uses.)
I did not say APSC would disappear, I said it would be relegated to sub $1000 cameras in a couple of generations based on recent developments
.I stand by that. I understand apsc has it's niche, but at the high end body level that disappears when the FF has a sensor with the same pixel pitch. In fact apsc and FF from a Canon Nikon, Sony Alpha and Pentax perspective are all the same system based on a FF system - not the same as medium format moving down at all. APSC only exists as an option because FF was not viable as an option 10 years back. There is no reason to think that dropping FF sensors won't eclipse the apsc in over $1000 cameras within a couple of generations now that we are supposedly going to see mass production FF sub $2000 from the big 3. Pentax will be there.as well, or they will be selling to entry entry mid clients only and be marginalized even further in the higher profit realm
Certainly it won't happen in the next 2 years, but withing 5 there is almost no doubt. all the advantage of apsc is disappearing with the advent of high performance small pixel pitch FF like the D800 (in fact aside from price and storage a K5 has no real advantage over a D800, and the D800 has many over the K5 - not the same price I know, but this too will come)
there is no smaller cheaper lens for the same performance. the f2.8 16-50 may have more light gathering capability than the 24-70 f4.that is equivalent in every other way, but the ff sensor has about a stop of high iso advantage, and if you want narrower DOF, better faster WA the FF wins. If it is each there is no win for apsc when sensors are equivalent pixel pitch
the only thing that has stopped FF dominating the enthusiast market has the most part has been price. the only thing that has kep a lot of pros shooting apsc in the canon and nikon world has been the price. APSC will still be around for the entry market, and will be a big component of the milc market of course.