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12-30-2013, 09:32 AM   #1
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New Report States That Only Canon, Nikon, and Sony Will Survive in the Camera Market

Nary a mention of Pentax...
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2013/12/29/business/29reuters-japan-cameras.html?hp&_r=4&

12-30-2013, 09:52 AM   #2
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I think Nikon might fall next. They are tripping over themselves. No dog in the ILC race, quality issues with lots of bodies and the crappiest P&S cameras of the bunch.

Sony is really flexing their muscles now.
12-30-2013, 09:58 AM   #3
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12-30-2013, 10:04 AM - 1 Like   #4
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Keep in mind these are the people who constantly predict doom for Apple because of Android, Kindle, etc...

12-30-2013, 10:31 AM - 1 Like   #5
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And your point is what again?

QuoteOriginally posted by UserK10D Quote
So, a junior photo imaging analyst at CS First Boston writes a research note, picked up by Reuters, covered and re-written by a NYT stringer, and we thinks it is GOSPEL???

How much do you want to bet a Ricoh machine was somewhere in the production process for that article. Ricoh is twice the size of Nikon and half the size of Canon, and none of these people even knows Pentax exists? 5.9% of the ILC market is just sample noise, I guess. 9.7% of the MILC market can't be real numbers for Q, so we just won't report it. As if Sony's external businesses will support their lunatic technology but real sales numbers won't support conservative old Pentax?

Oh, and that K3 - only been out for three weeks, so nothing proven yet -

Besides, I thought Pentax went out of business years ago. They still make cameras?

/rant
12-30-2013, 11:21 AM   #6
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"Only those who have a strong brand and are competitive on price will last - and only Canon, Nikon and Sony fulfil that criteria," added Yoshida.

I got into Pentax at the K100d time, competitive body prices / features, and prime lenses that were affordable...
At the end of the cycle with december rebates, I paid $400 for the K100d with DA18-50 and DA50-200 kit lenses ----- I paid $175 for a new FA50 1.4 and $279 for a FA 35 f2... also with rebates.

That was how they got people to buy in. Impressive prime lenses that were relatively inexpensive... and backwards compatibility to the old lenses.

They also were still on the local store shelves so you could actually handle them. This was key for getting new customers IMHO. Had I not held a K10d and K100d at the same time I held the Nikon D50 and Canon Rebel, I probably would have not even considered Pentax.

This high-margin lens pricing strategy Ricoh is employing now, will not bring in new customers at the rate that will replace those who move on to full frame, or scale back to mirrorless/compact, or die loyal Pentaxians... The market to sell a somwhat slow 2x zoom DA 20-40 for a $1000 is a fixed and slowly shrinking group.

Other than the 50 silly colors for the Japanese market, there are few reasons for new dslr newbies to look at Pentax like there was when I jumped on board.

Last edited by Billy Joe; 12-30-2013 at 11:30 AM.
12-30-2013, 12:05 PM   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by Billy Joe Quote
At the end of the cycle with december rebates, I paid $400 for the K100d with DA18-50 and DA50-200 kit lenses ----- I paid $175 for a new FA50 1.4 and $279 for a FA 35 f2... also with rebates.
So you want black cameras and fine lenses, available to handle in stores, marketed with rebates, all so you can buy the clearance deal mid-range camera kit and 2 prior-generation lenses. And you want them sold by knowlegeable sales people. And everyone will be profitable - Pentax Japan, Pentax USA, the store and the salesman.

And you want Pentax to continue to do R&D and release new products so they aren't overtaken by SonyOlyFujiPanny in mirrorless - and take market share from CaNikoY in dSLRs so there is a product cycle, at the end of which you will buy last year's product on Clearance Price with a Holiday Rebate. Let me ask - did you get a K5II for $599?

And don't touch the FA Limiteds - they are special sacrosanct lenses (well, not you - that's a rant from another thread).

And FF.

What you ask is just not possible. If that's really necessary Ricoh should just close it down right now.
12-30-2013, 12:09 PM   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
So you want black cameras and fine lenses, available to handle in stores, marketed with rebates, all so you can buy the clearance deal mid-range camera kit and 2 prior-generation lenses. And you want them sold by knowlegeable sales people. And everyone will be profitable - Pentax Japan, Pentax USA, the store and the salesman.

And you want Pentax to continue to do R&D and release new products so they aren't overtaken by SonyOlyFujiPanny in mirrorless - and take market share from CaNikoY in dSLRs so there is a product cycle, at the end of which you will buy last year's product on Clearance Price with a Holiday Rebate. Let me ask - did you get a K5II for $599?

And don't touch the FA Limiteds - they are special sacrosanct lenses (well, not you - that's a rant from another thread).

And FF.

What you ask is just not possible. If that's really necessary Ricoh should just close it down right now.
No I want that R&D brother... I need to know what body colors are hot in Asia... And I need to know if green, red or blue rings make the limited lenses more appealing. 8^)

12-30-2013, 01:38 PM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by Billy Joe Quote
No I want that R&D brother... I need to know what body colors are hot in Asia... And I need to know if green, red or blue rings make the limited lenses more appealing. 8^)
So you want marketing but you don't want Marketing.
12-30-2013, 01:55 PM   #10
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I just want you to be happy... I am happy with my Kx and lowly K01 also bought at the end of its cycle...

I promise not to buy anymore cameras at the end of their cycle... but that was a good deal on the K5ll for $599...

Sadly, I had already blown my annual camera budget on an FA77, otherwise I would have scooped up a K5ll 8^)
12-30-2013, 02:08 PM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by Billy Joe Quote
I just want you to be happy... I am happy with my Kx and lowly K01 also bought at the end of its cycle...

I promise not to buy anymore cameras at the end of their cycle... but that was a good deal on the K5ll for $599...

Sadly, I had already blown my annual camera budget on an FA77, otherwise I would have scooped up a K5ll 8^)
Don't get me wrong - I do it too. K10D - end of cycle, FA50 (well, just bought early), FA35 (full price, but in 2007), 4 Q's on clearance deal package. But I also get full price stuff.

My point is Pentax can't do all the things we seem to want them to do unless someone pays full price for the lenses.
12-30-2013, 02:40 PM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Don't get me wrong - I do it too. K10D - end of cycle, FA50 (well, just bought early), FA35 (full price, but in 2007), 4 Q's on clearance deal package. But I also get full price stuff.

My point is Pentax can't do all the things we seem to want them to do unless someone pays full price for the lenses.
And I guess that was my point... if their business model is just that some loyal pentaxians will buy the K3/K50s and DA lenses at full price upon release, then that group of buyers is a slowly shrinking group.

And therefore the premium high-margin pricing on lenses is not a long term solution in a market with Nikon and Canon already dominating that niche and owning all shelf space at almost every brick and mortar retail outlet.

By looking at the numbers, the now 5 year old 'Color' experiment has not really moved the needle much...

They have to get new folks buying the entry/mid level models... at release, or end of cycle. You just got to get them in peoples hands.
You need kits sitting on shelves at the holidays. You need hands on capabilities year round. Drop the price on the DA50 and 35 entry lenses. Get em hooked...

I know the US market is not the be all end all for success... But that is all I know, and Pentax are failing here in the US

Surely I am not the only one who thinks that might make a difference.

Or maybe you can open my eyes to how the high-margin lens pricing does make sense long term... maybe I am blinded by my own financial status.
12-30-2013, 03:05 PM   #13
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There's no mention of Pentax in there, but then...there's no mention of Samsung either - which has been pushing its mirrorless.
There's also no mention of Sigma (they make their own camera bodies too)

I do think that the 4/3 size mirrorless hasn't really been taken seriously (by consumers/professionals) even though they do take nice pictures.

1. Micro 4/3 = new lens format - all new lenses - and not a ton of them to go around yet, and not cheap (no m42 style or A style primes for <$50). Just like Pentax - it really needs heavy promoting if it wants to go anywhere.
2. Mirrorless - in general, not a bad idea, especially at the low end. Expect dust on the sensor. I wonder how well long term a sensor would keep its abilities (seem ok in cellphones) with light hitting it continuously.

I do have 'some' agreement with this article - Canon/Nikon/Sony are going all at it - in the SLR market. Pentax (in the US at least) has no real presence, and could end up like Olympus or Minolta. Its up to their management to push product in a shrinking field. Is the field really shrinking... or just becoming what it was - pre Y2K, but with 3 dominant players effectively 'dumping' product to get (and keep?) people into their system.

Like it or not - SLR photography isn't all that cheap. The market had a boom period when dSLR prices became reasonable, and film was on its way out.
Those users have mostly purchased their cameras, and are not looking for a replacement. In general - this isn't a tablet or cellphone that's replaced every 3 years, however, if it was up to manufacturers, they would be.

Many that have purchased dSLR cameras probably don't use them all that much besides on vacation, or kids events. The later was probably the main reason one was purchased initially... P&S devices are too slow to zoom / focus / take picture to be useful.
12-30-2013, 03:34 PM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by Billy Joe Quote
They have to get new folks buying the entry/mid level models... at release, or end of cycle. You just got to get them in peoples hands.
You need kits sitting on shelves at the holidays. You need hands on capabilities year round. Drop the price on the DA50 and 35 entry lenses. Get em hooked...
Here's what I really, truly think. Thre are 125 million "consumers" in the USA (employed, disposable income). There are 240 million consumers in the EU. Both countries are still recovering from 2008 (though the USA is better off and farther along than the EU, which had a second recession in 2011). Canon and Nikon have entrenched distribution and marketing levers in USA and EU that would be very difficult to assault (known as barriers to entry).

There are ten times as many "consumers" in Asia, significantly more of them are just now acquiring their first wave of consumer items (how many bed frames did I need after I got the first one? Dining Room Tables andhairs? Refrigerators - once every twenty years? etc.) and they are younger.

I think the big names are marketing here because they are here, but the opportunity to grow lies in Asia. I think Ricoh's plan is to Market in Asia where the growth opportunity lies and to Sell here without investing very much - after all, Pentax charges its regional divisions the same thing for its products the workld over. It is the regional divisions that make the regional pricing decisions. RIAC set the MAP Pricing for US sales (and if you know how you can always get a better-than-MAP price any day of the week).

I don't think Pentax intends to make a major effort in the US until they've established themselves in the growth markets globally. Sad to say it - but reality is we just don't matter so much any more. Sux to be us, but it's true.

People in the US don't seem to like colors - but boy do they sell a lot of colorful cameras in Asia. Build-to-order colors (if they can get it working) adds an entirely new wrinkle to camera-making. What if down the road I can spec my camera froma Menu of choices adn have it shipped to me or dropped at a Dealer (with a small Dealer markup)? Michael Dell sure made that work for a while in laptops. I can get a spec. Honda Accord in ten days if it isn't on the lot. Etc.

There's a lot of good stuff percolating in Pentax land. I think quite a number of recent criticisms are still complaing about the last war.
12-30-2013, 03:56 PM   #15
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Maybe the last 2 wars...

We lost one and got sold, we lost another and got sold...

You are right about the markets.
Pentax essentially gave up the US market when they lost the In-store real estate initially as the brick and mortar camera store died. Hoya never really attempted any US marketing, although I believe they were the ones that fired the first real shots in the dlsr 'Color Wars' for the asian markets.

Ricoh knows these markets better than Hoya and Pentax, so you probably have hit the nail on the head with their focus being away for the US/EU.

The US/EU has lost their attention and the war on these fronts...

I should just retire an old soldier... as I have not the energy to fight as a mercenary on foreign soil... Heck, I am exhausted from our little Tête à Tête
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