Originally posted by Davidparis Greetings,
Was pondering the following points;
1. What can we expect Adorama and BH Photo to propose for this year's Black Friday? Will the K-3 deal drop lower? Will there be a K-3ii deal? Will the 55-300 HD drop again to $267 or so? What are you hoping/waiting for?
2. With the FF supposedly scheduled for Spring 2016, what will this mean for the future of APS-C bodies at Ricoh/Pentax? Will they slowly die off over the next few years? Will they continue to upgrade and modify the K-3 structure base?
3. Will Pentax come out with a high-end mirrorless body for K-mount lenses? Is the DSLR condemned to an agonising "way of the dinosaur", be it FF or APS-C? With all the iPhone and Android instant photogs out there making very decent photos, will the high-end manufacturers react with a mirrorless body that will replace the DSLR and be compatible with our legacy lenses?
I've checked my crystal ball and came up with nothing...
Brgds to all.
1) I think it's still too early to tell what the deals will be. Both Adorama and B&H had some pretty low prices recently that lasted 1 - 2 weeks. I would expect the prices to be even lower but last for much shorter periods of time.
2) My personal opinion is that Ricoh will support APS for the short term, 5 - 10 years. I can't imagine how many new APS lenses will be released because FF will surely take up some engineering capacity. Besides, Ricoh already has nearly one of everything that can work on APS. I am going to guess that we may see updates in coatings, materials, seals, and focusing mechanisms when it comes to APS. Long term, I believe that Ricoh will let APS die off slowly. This is now 15+ years. FF will become ubiquitous and cheap by then. APS will be squeezed by u4/3. Any remaining APS players will be mirrorless, like Sony.
3) I think DSLR/mirror technology has plenty of life left in it, 15+ years. The biggest winning point for DSLR/mirror technology is focusing capabilities. PDAF still has a way to go.
Just my guesses.