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11-01-2015, 12:23 AM   #1
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Just wondering...about Pentax

Greetings,

Was pondering the following points;

1. What can we expect Adorama and BH Photo to propose for this year's Black Friday? Will the K-3 deal drop lower? Will there be a K-3ii deal? Will the 55-300 HD drop again to $267 or so? What are you hoping/waiting for?

2. With the FF supposedly scheduled for Spring 2016, what will this mean for the future of APS-C bodies at Ricoh/Pentax? Will they slowly die off over the next few years? Will they continue to upgrade and modify the K-3 structure base?

3. Will Pentax come out with a high-end mirrorless body for K-mount lenses? Is the DSLR condemned to an agonising "way of the dinosaur", be it FF or APS-C? With all the iPhone and Android instant photogs out there making very decent photos, will the high-end manufacturers react with a mirrorless body that will replace the DSLR and be compatible with our legacy lenses?

I've checked my crystal ball and came up with nothing...

Brgds to all.

11-01-2015, 01:40 AM   #2
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Apparently, Ricoh will release a "kick-ass" full frame camera. If that's really the case (I think so), it will be a do it all full frame camera (like the K-3, with a larger sensor), a kind of hybrid between the D810, 5D , but with perhaps a higher frame rate and maybe 4K video I suppose. Pentax products are often released in between the product life cycles of Canon and Nikon, so I expect the Pentax full frame to be having some features that the 5Ds/D810 don't have, but half a year later , I also expect Canon and Nikon to release new higher speced full frame cameras that will trounce the Pentax full frame (Canon now working of 8K UHD). Within the Pentax product line, I do believe that most of the efforts are being put into a "kick-ass" full frame system (camera + lenses), so in my opinion there won't be any mirroless FF anytime soon. However, there might be a stripped down / cost reduced version of FF DSLR or mirroless to catch the lower budget Pentaxians. Since MF is mostly for stills due to lack of long equ. focal length (too heavy for that format), the new FF DSLR is supposed to cover a large number of applications including sports (with DFA150-450) hence perhaps more AF points and high frame rate. In the medium term, there could be a better K-3 version (with a BSI sensor from Sony) with larger AF reused from the Pentax FF (like Canon and Nikon do when porting their full frame AF modules into their top of the line speedy APSC DSLRs), or a mirrorless full-frame but not both. As the cost of FF sensor has been getting to a point where is makes no longer sense to use cropped ones, in the long term, APSC DSLR might just be dropped and replaced by mirrorless FF.There were talks about mirrorless medium format, which would makes sense from AF standpoint, although it would not save much of the cost, but I guess there's already more to swallow than Ricoh can do (the problem of Ricoh now seems to be that they are going to have 3 product lines to maintain and 4 lines when considering mirroless while having less R&D resources than Canon or Nikon).

Of course, for short range high quality stills (street, landscape), you don't need a fast AF DSLR at all, but a large sensor would help, then buy yourself a 645D, 645z and if you don't have the money, buy a A7RII and a K-mount adapter. Some people are looking forward to a FF DSRL for landscapes, I just think that's not the best choice, mirrorless is the better choice. But for sports and wildlife, DSLR is the best choice. For doing everything DSLR can do. For sharing photos over the web , an iPhone is fine.

Yesterday, I was at a ice skating international contest, aside with a Canon 1Dx and Canon 5DIII. A lot of people were with GoPro, iPhones and some A7, but at the end, the same people came to me to ask to see the photos from the K-3, and absolutely wanted those photos...since some of the frozen motion shots actually amazed myself. The only problem is I've taken 64G of photos in RAW on 2 SD cards and it's now a lot of work to sort out the best ones :-)

Last edited by biz-engineer; 11-01-2015 at 02:14 AM.
11-01-2015, 02:28 AM   #3
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1: can't answer

2: They will continue with aps-c. Why wouldn't they?

3: No, not anytime soon.
11-01-2015, 03:06 AM   #4
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QuoteOriginally posted by Davidparis Quote
With the FF supposedly scheduled for Spring 2016, what will this mean for the future of APS-C bodies at Ricoh/Pentax? Will they slowly die off over the next few years?
If Canon or Nikon did that, it's goodbye to maybe 90 percent of their customers.

The executive who suggested it would be put in a straitjacket.

Will you splash out $3000 for the Pentax FF, David? :-)

11-01-2015, 04:11 AM   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
If Canon or Nikon did that, it's goodbye to maybe 90 percent of their customers.
That was 10 years ago. We are in 2015, the market is very different from what it was. The mid range products is already falling into a vacuum of demand. People use small compact cameras up to mirrorless or iPhones, and if they can afford the bulk weight and size of a DSLR, it'd rather deliver a big performance gap. But perhaps Pentaxians will not get it and still carry a big weather sealed magnesium allow body having a 24x36 size mount with a 23x15 sensor in it, whereas they could have a body half the size with a 24x36 BSI sensor in it. I bet Pentax are going to sell more Pentax FF than K-3 and K-3II combined, volumes similar to the K-5 (but double price and even more profit margin), so should they still sell the lower volume lower margin APSC DSLR product line or should they sell more quantities of higher margin products?

Last edited by biz-engineer; 11-01-2015 at 04:24 AM.
11-01-2015, 04:22 AM - 1 Like   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
. I bet Pentax are going to sell more Pentax FF than K-3 and K-3II combined,
I will take your bet, BE.

I'm in the mood. It's Melbourne Cup day on Tuesday. :-D
11-01-2015, 06:06 AM   #7
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That statement could be taken two ways.
11-01-2015, 07:59 AM   #8
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Pentax have invested too much in APS-C cameras and lenses to drop it for as long as they keep selling. Quite a few of us have too! In the short to medium term (my life-time) I expect they will continue to make these fine products and sell for a profit. The compactness of ASP-C DSLR systems relative to FF is still a strong selling point.

I do expect the next GR and hopefully Q to be redesigned with EVF - something I look forward to. These two cameras could easily address mirrorless compact successfully. And then, perhaps the Ricoh brand will expand to accomodate larger sensors (thinking FF and MF!).

Yes, I would like to be able to purchase the Pentax FF (K-1?) or the 645Z, but if I am unable to afford these, I will be happy to carry on with the likes of my K-3 II, Q, and 645N.

11-01-2015, 09:38 AM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
If Canon or Nikon did that, it's goodbye to maybe 90 percent of their customers.

The executive who suggested it would be put in a straitjacket.

Will you splash out $3000 for the Pentax FF, David? :-)
No sir, I certainly won't be spending 3k for the FF, what with all the APS-C cr*p that I've accumulated over the years. That's why I'm hoping DSLR APS-C continues at Pentax. Can't help but imagining where the tech world is going though, and I see us DSLR-wielding crazies as becoming more and more marginalized in an iPhone/Snapchat world.
11-01-2015, 10:43 AM - 1 Like   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by Davidparis Quote
Greetings,

Was pondering the following points;

1. What can we expect Adorama and BH Photo to propose for this year's Black Friday? Will the K-3 deal drop lower? Will there be a K-3ii deal? Will the 55-300 HD drop again to $267 or so? What are you hoping/waiting for?

2. With the FF supposedly scheduled for Spring 2016, what will this mean for the future of APS-C bodies at Ricoh/Pentax? Will they slowly die off over the next few years? Will they continue to upgrade and modify the K-3 structure base?

3. Will Pentax come out with a high-end mirrorless body for K-mount lenses? Is the DSLR condemned to an agonising "way of the dinosaur", be it FF or APS-C? With all the iPhone and Android instant photogs out there making very decent photos, will the high-end manufacturers react with a mirrorless body that will replace the DSLR and be compatible with our legacy lenses?

I've checked my crystal ball and came up with nothing...

Brgds to all.
1) I think it's still too early to tell what the deals will be. Both Adorama and B&H had some pretty low prices recently that lasted 1 - 2 weeks. I would expect the prices to be even lower but last for much shorter periods of time.

2) My personal opinion is that Ricoh will support APS for the short term, 5 - 10 years. I can't imagine how many new APS lenses will be released because FF will surely take up some engineering capacity. Besides, Ricoh already has nearly one of everything that can work on APS. I am going to guess that we may see updates in coatings, materials, seals, and focusing mechanisms when it comes to APS. Long term, I believe that Ricoh will let APS die off slowly. This is now 15+ years. FF will become ubiquitous and cheap by then. APS will be squeezed by u4/3. Any remaining APS players will be mirrorless, like Sony.

3) I think DSLR/mirror technology has plenty of life left in it, 15+ years. The biggest winning point for DSLR/mirror technology is focusing capabilities. PDAF still has a way to go.

Just my guesses.
11-01-2015, 11:23 AM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
That was 10 years ago. We are in 2015, the market is very different from what it was. The mid range products is already falling into a vacuum of demand. People use small compact cameras up to mirrorless or iPhones, and if they can afford the bulk weight and size of a DSLR, it'd rather deliver a big performance gap. But perhaps Pentaxians will not get it and still carry a big weather sealed magnesium allow body having a 24x36 size mount with a 23x15 sensor in it, whereas they could have a body half the size with a 24x36 BSI sensor in it. I bet Pentax are going to sell more Pentax FF than K-3 and K-3II combined, volumes similar to the K-5 (but double price and even more profit margin), so should they still sell the lower volume lower margin APSC DSLR product line or should they sell more quantities of higher margin products?
I think physical size and weight will come into it with a vengence. FF will only really get decent sales if its size and weight (including lenses) match equivalent (or lighter) APS and four thirds models. The cameras would also have to have an APS option that produces a minimum picture quality similar to the K5iis for the miriad of existing owners of APS only lenses.
11-01-2015, 10:22 PM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by Davidparis Quote
for this year's Black Friday?
This year, I wonder if C.R. Kennedy will have discounts like they did last year?
11-02-2015, 12:36 AM - 1 Like   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by Davidparis Quote
Greetings,

Was pondering the following points;

1. What can we expect Adorama and BH Photo to propose for this year's Black Friday? Will the K-3 deal drop lower? Will there be a K-3ii deal? Will the 55-300 HD drop again to $267 or so? What are you hoping/waiting for?

2. With the FF supposedly scheduled for Spring 2016, what will this mean for the future of APS-C bodies at Ricoh/Pentax? Will they slowly die off over the next few years? Will they continue to upgrade and modify the K-3 structure base?

3. Will Pentax come out with a high-end mirrorless body for K-mount lenses? Is the DSLR condemned to an agonising "way of the dinosaur", be it FF or APS-C? With all the iPhone and Android instant photogs out there making very decent photos, will the high-end manufacturers react with a mirrorless body that will replace the DSLR and be compatible with our legacy lenses?

I've checked my crystal ball and came up with nothing...

Brgds to all.
I guess the reason that I did't get the mirrorless apeal in the start is that I did not understand that cameras are a fashion item for good number of buyers, not a tool for photography. As for the electronic viewfinders they are not superior in every aspect nor cheap now.
11-02-2015, 01:54 AM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by 6BQ5 Quote
1) I think it's still too early to tell what the deals will be. Both Adorama and B&H had some pretty low prices recently that lasted 1 - 2 weeks. I would expect the prices to be even lower but last for much shorter periods of time.

2) My personal opinion is that Ricoh will support APS for the short term, 5 - 10 years. I can't imagine how many new APS lenses will be released because FF will surely take up some engineering capacity. Besides, Ricoh already has nearly one of everything that can work on APS. I am going to guess that we may see updates in coatings, materials, seals, and focusing mechanisms when it comes to APS. Long term, I believe that Ricoh will let APS die off slowly. This is now 15+ years. FF will become ubiquitous and cheap by then. APS will be squeezed by u4/3. Any remaining APS players will be mirrorless, like Sony.

3) I think DSLR/mirror technology has plenty of life left in it, 15+ years. The biggest winning point for DSLR/mirror technology is focusing capabilities. PDAF still has a way to go.

Just my guesses.
Very good guesses indeed.
11-02-2015, 01:57 AM   #15
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1. What can we expect Adorama and BH Photo to propose for this year's Black Friday? Will the K-3 deal drop lower? Will there be a K-3ii deal? Will the 55-300 HD drop again to $267 or so? What are you hoping/waiting for?

Any deal would be awesome, but I personally have too many lenses and the K-S2 will tie me over for next couple of years.

2. With the FF supposedly scheduled for Spring 2016, what will this mean for the future of APS-C bodies at Ricoh/Pentax? Will they slowly die off over the next few years? Will they continue to upgrade and modify the K-3 structure base?

I think K-3 successor with Wifi, tilt/swivel screen, and improved AF tracking tech from K-Full-Frame could be the last high-end APS-C body. I don't know what else I would need from a camera to allow me to shoot APS-C for a long time.

3. Will Pentax come out with a high-end mirrorless body for K-mount lenses? Is the DSLR condemned to an agonising "way of the dinosaur", be it FF or APS-C? With all the iPhone and Android instant photogs out there making very decent photos, will the high-end manufacturers react with a mirrorless body that will replace the DSLR and be compatible with our legacy lenses?

Whatever camera that can deliver excellent IQ, fast enough AF will be on my buy list. If all build-quality, user interface, IQ and performance metrics can be met by multiple systems, I will buy the most economical system. It could be DSLR or mirrorless, I don't care.
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