I've been watching Pentax a long time; after shooting Pentax film SLRs, I got my *ist D in April 2004 (I have a K-5 ii now). Here's what I think is most likely to happen:
First, I don't think anyone seriously thinks Pentax APS-C will be abandoned entirely. Future replacements for the K-S1 are all but assured for years to come. I think the real question is whether *enthusiast-grade* APS-C will be abandoned, leaving only consumer-grade updates for that format.
I don't think even Pentax/Ricoh knows the answer to that for certain at this point. I think it will depend on two things:
-- How well Pentax Full-Frame sells, both bodies and lenses, and:
-- To what extent those are truly new sales vs. cannibalized enthusiast-grade APS-C sales.
In the short term, I think there will be a lot of truly new sales, to people who would not have bought Pentax APS-C, and to people who have already bought Pentax APS-C. But in the long term, I think a high proportion of Pentax Full-Frame sales will cannibalize Pentax enthusiast-grade APS-C sales.
When and if that pattern is established, I think Pentax will decide that a true upgrade to the K-3 ii doesn't make economic sense -- too few buyers interested, since so many will have switched to Pentax Full Frame. Maybe we'll see a K-3 iii minor update, but no true upgrade. But I think we will see the K-3 ii (or iii or whatever) soldier on for a long time, as a symbolic halo for the APS-C line, long after it is selling in significant numbers, just as the *ist D was available long after it was competitive, until it was replaced by the K10D.
Another reason to think that there will be no true APS-C K-3 replacement is that the naming seems to point to the K-1 being the replacement for the K-3 (K-7, then K-5, then K-3, then K-1).
But with the high end of the old K-3 market now buying the K-1, and with the K-S1 market basically unchanged, that will leave a different market for the K-S2 replacement. In addition to the old K-30/K-50/K-S2 market, it will still have to serve what had been the low end, maybe the lower half or more, of the old K-3 market. To sell the most cameras to that group, Pentax will want to hit the middle of that market. That would mean something *between* a K-S2 replacement and a true K-3 replacement. Since most of the old K-3 market is not keen on the high-fashion aesthetics of the K-S2, that camera will probably look more like an update to the K-50.
Besides aesthetics, in what ways will that camera be more like a K-3 update than a K-S2 update? Probably in whatever ways Pentax thinks most of that low end of the old K-3 market will demand in order to buy it. Here are my guesses:
-- Sensor. I think we'll see ISO higher than the K-3's 51,200, and FPS not less than the K-3's 8.3. And it will be a better sensor than the K-S1's replacement, which can and should continue to use a low-cost sensor.
-- Buffer. Not less than the K-3.
-- Write speed. Not less than the K-3.
-- AF speed, points, etc. I think this will come from the K-1.
-- Bracketing
And here's what I think will be more like a K-S2 replacement:
-- A pop-up flash rather than the K-3's GPS, or maybe something else entirely if ISO does go up. Hybrid viewfinder?
-- No magnesium alloy body
-- The LDC will tilt (like a K-S2, not like a K-1).
-- Max shutter speed
-- USB 2.0, not 3.0
-- Flash settings
If they don't do that, and instead replace the K-S2 with a straightforward K-S2 upgrade with no nod to K-3 owners that don't want to upgrade to Full Frame, then the low end of the old K-3 market will be cast adrift. Some will downgrade eventually to a K-S2 replacement, but many will start looking at other brands, especially well-established mirrorless APS-C and micro 4/3 lines. I will be surprised if Pentax lets that happen, when it would be so easy to keep most of those customers by moving the K-S2 replacement somewhat upmarket.
Regarding lenses, I think the only new enthusiast-grade APS-C lenses we should expect to see in the long-term future is wide-angle and medium zooms. For enthusiast-grade primes and telephoto zooms, I think long-term the enthusiast APS-C crowd will be expected to buy future full-frame lenses or make do with existing models.
Last edited by GregL65; 03-17-2016 at 03:45 PM.
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