[normhead]

Well the poll is closed. Thanks to all who participated. It's looking like Pentax might sell a boat load of these cameras.

The planned adoption rate among poll recipients is 63%

28% are happy with their existing cameras.

8% are planning to stay with APS-c on their next upgrade.

The site shows 41,627 users...
But the number of online users shows 199 members and 896 guests, which would suggest there are far more guests , but a lot of the 41,000 members are probably not active. So, there are no hard numbers here, way to many factors not accounted for.

Bit if 63% of 41,000 user bought a K-3 that would be 25,000 K-1s sold.

I wonder if we can get a group discount?

[jatrax]

Bit if 63% of 41,000 user bought a K-3 that would be 25,000 K-1s sold.

You know, Mark Jerling's poll back awhile indicated (if I remember right) that 60% of the members of this forum would buy a FF Pentax DSLR. I told him his poll could not possibly be accurate..................

Maybe I owe him an apology.

---------- Post added 03-12-16 at 08:12 PM ----------

Here is the link to Mark's poll just for reference: https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/169-pentax-full-frame/273288-poll-gauge-h...ff-pentax.html

[normhead]

You know, Mark Jerling's poll back awhile indicated (if I remember right) that 60% of the members of this forum would buy a FF Pentax DSLR. I told him his poll could not possibly be accurate..................

Maybe I owe him an apology.

---------- Post added 03-12-16 at 08:12 PM ----------

Here is the link to Mark's poll just for reference: https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/169-pentax-full-frame/273288-poll-gauge-h...ff-pentax.html

I still feel this poll can't be accurate... my suspicion is that there is less participation by entry level users in the poll, but also in the forum in general. Without a check box in the user profile for equipment owned, etc. it's hard to come to any kind of understanding of who voted, and how much they represent the forum. SO my suspicion is that poll participants are the keeners. That 60% of the keeners would be interested an a different format using the same lenses, isn't really surprising.

What does it mean in the real world? That of the hundred keenest forum participants 60% will buy a K-1. Stated that way, it doesn't sound so impressive. IN some ways, you wonder why it isn't more. These guys like cameras, they like fooling around, trying different things, reading what others do, learning new techniques, why wouldn't they try a different format? at least in theory.

The way I see, it, I'm not changing systems, I'm adding to my existing system. It's the same as a lens. If I buy it and don't use it, it's one item to sell, just as if it were an expensive lens, that I bought and didn't use. It's different than the aggravation of selling all your gear and buying all new gear.

IN some ways I'd ask, if you're willing to try a new lens, why wouldn't you try a new body, that gives a new field of view to all your favourite lenses.? A real world example. If I'm in my blind with the A-400 and a Hairy woodpecker turns up, he's too big for my field of view. Put the FF on it instead of putting a different lens on the camera.... it's the same as having a shorter lens.

I have no idea how practical an idea this is, but, I'm at least going to find out. And if I sell it in the end, well, I've sold a couple of lenses as well. it happens. Things don't work out the way you planned, sometimes , no matter what you are buying.

[Canada_Rockies]

Norm, I am approaching the advent of the K1 in the same way I approached the release of the 645 by Pentax in my film days. I prefer the smaller size and lower weight of the smaller sensor/film size cameras. I already carry 18-20 Kg of stuff on my back and a tripod on my shoulder when I head out. Not to mention that She Who Must Be Obeyed would turn me into a soprano voice if I spent that kind of money on a camera.

[danielchtong]

My latest dslr is the vintage K20D. And all my lenses are FF ready for the transition. After confirmations from a few of the senior members in the community, I will join the club

[normhead]

Norm, I am approaching the advent of the K1 in the same way I approached the release of the 645 by Pentax in my film days. I prefer the smaller size and lower weight of the smaller sensor/film size cameras. I already carry 18-20 Kg of stuff on my back and a tripod on my shoulder when I head out. Not to mention that She Who Must Be Obeyed would turn me into a soprano voice if I spent that kind of money on a camera.

I'm certainly in no hurry. Around here She Who Mudt Be Obeyed says I have to sell enough gear to cover at least half of it. And what I'd saved so far, got wiped out when I dropped my 60-250.

My latest dslr is the vintage K20D. And all my lenses are FF ready for the transition. After confirmations from a few of the senior members in the community, I will join the club

Already having FF lenses certainly makes it easier.

[MarkJerling]

I still feel this poll can't be accurate... my suspicion is that there is less participation by entry level users in the poll, but also in the forum in general. Without a check box in the user profile for equipment owned, etc. it's hard to come to any kind of understanding of who voted, and how much they represent the forum. SO my suspicion is that poll participants are the keeners. That 60% of the keeners would be interested an a different format using the same lenses, isn't really surprising.

What does it mean in the real world? That of the hundred keenest forum participants 60% will buy a K-1. Stated that way, it doesn't sound so impressive. IN some ways, you wonder why it isn't more. These guys like cameras, they like fooling around, trying different things, reading what others do, learning new techniques, why wouldn't they try a different format? at least in theory.

The way I see, it, I'm not changing systems, I'm adding to my existing system. It's the same as a lens. If I buy it and don't use it, it's one item to sell, just as if it were an expensive lens, that I bought and didn't use. It's different than the aggravation of selling all your gear and buying all new gear.

IN some ways I'd ask, if you're willing to try a new lens, why wouldn't you try a new body, that gives a new field of view to all your favourite lenses.? A real world example. If I'm in my blind with the A-400 and a Hairy woodpecker turns up, he's too big for my field of view. Put the FF on it instead of putting a different lens on the camera.... it's the same as having a shorter lens.

I have no idea how practical an idea this is, but, I'm at least going to find out. And if I sell it in the end, well, I've sold a couple of lenses as well. it happens. Things don't work out the way you planned, sometimes , no matter what you are buying.

Norm, I did vote, of course! I need to crunch the maths again on that poll - 431 voted. Would have been nice to get to 500, but oh well!

[MarkJerling]

You know, Mark Jerling's poll back awhile indicated (if I remember right) that 60% of the members of this forum would buy a FF Pentax DSLR. I told him his poll could not possibly be accurate..................

Maybe I owe him an apology.

---------- Post added 03-12-16 at 08:12 PM ----------

Here is the link to Mark's poll just for reference: https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/169-pentax-full-frame/273288-poll-gauge-h...ff-pentax.html

After calculating for margin of error, and working to the 431 sample size, that poll is still sitting at 65%, with a certainty of 99%, with raw data 71% who want a FF.

[BigMackCam]

After calculating for margin of error, and working to the 431 sample size, that poll is still sitting at 65%, with a certainty of 99%, with raw data 71% who want a FF.

I think we can safely say that we'd ALL want a FF... it's just a case of if we'd spring for one

[clackers]

.

What does it mean in the real world? That of the hundred keenest forum participants 60% will buy a K-1. Stated that way, it doesn't sound so impressive. IN some ways, you wonder why it isn't more.

I can think of 1700 (USD) good reasons ... ☺

[monochrome]

With a global population approaching 8,000,000,000 I think this poll shows a virtual certainty that Pentax can sell 100,000 K-1's in the first round.

[virusn3t]

With a global population approaching 8,000,000,000 I think this poll shows a virtual certainty that Pentax can sell 100,000 K-1's in the first round.

100k is the expected first batch? I always think the regular batch could be 50k

[monochrome]

100k is the expected first batch? I always think the regular batch could be 50k

HIIK. What I do know is the first batch of 645z's was increased dramatically (from 5,000 to 20,000) to meet dealer pre-order demand. I'd love to know how many B&H and Adorama have ordered for general inventory. I'd love to know how many RIAC has ordered for non-B&H/Adorama distribution.

I personally believe this camera will do better than anyone except Ricoh thinks.

[jatrax]

anyone except Ricoh thinks.

Maybe even Ricoh

[yucatanPentax]

The thing about any online poll is that it is self-selecting.

First, only those who are interested in the topic even read the poll. Perhaps many satisfied customers are happy with their equipment and don't bother to read and fill it out.

Then, there are those who simply don't respond to polls, period. Either they came to the site for other reasons or they don't want to say what they're doing, or whatever.

Then, there are people who over-rate their ambitions, maybe checking YES to an upgrade, but just hoping the money appears and can't place an order today.

There are all these variations with an online, public access poll. It gives you a feel for which way the wind is blowing, but isn't quite perfect. A well-run scientifically random, distributed poll would provide much better data. The thing is, it costs money to do that. Maybe Pentax has done that or maybe they have their own corporate forecasting department who figures these things out. Having been a corporate forecaster for some years in my past, I can testify to the black arts they engage in to come up with some oddly accurate numbers (or people get fired).

But I enjoy the poll and seeing how it evolves. Personally, I think Pentax appears to have delivered quite a nice product at a good price point. I think it's going to be quite successful. We'll soon see!