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View Poll Results: Is there a K-1 in your future?
I'm happy with my K-30-KS-1 or other introductory model. 75.00%
I'm happy with my K-5 or other advanced user model. 128.57%
I'm happy with my K-3 or K3II 2115.00%
I have option 1 or 2 and I''l upgrade to a K-1 instead of a K-3 2920.71%
I have option1 or and I'll upgrade to a K-3 85.71%
I have a K-3 or a K3II and I'll upgrade to the next crop sensor released, if necessary. 32.14%
I have a K-3 or K-3 II and I'll upgrade to a K-1 next upgrade, but keeping my APS-c gear. 5438.57%
I'm ordering K-1 and selling my APS-c gear. 64.29%
Voters: 140. You may not vote on this poll

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03-14-2016, 01:24 AM   #106
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QuoteOriginally posted by yucatanPentax Quote
The thing about any online poll is that it is self-selecting.
Of course. Everyone who has extrapolated the results to the rest of the buying public was only doing so in jest.

I hope so, anyway. ☺

03-14-2016, 08:06 AM   #107
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
Of course. Everyone who has extrapolated the results to the rest of the buying public was only doing so in jest.

I hope so, anyway. ☺
Someone posted on Facebook that 38% of all Pentax owners were going to buy a new K-1, citing either this poll or the other. It really doesn't matter in the end, or to me, but often once something becomes a number it is taken as "a fact" by someone. Just wanted to mention the fact that these are interesting and fun to discuss, but should be taken with a grain of salt.

Wouldn't it be great if 38% of all Pentax owners order a K-1? How many Pentax DSLR owners are there in the world? That would be an interesting fact to know!
03-14-2016, 08:12 AM   #108
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QuoteQuote:
First, only those who are interested in the topic even read the poll. Perhaps many satisfied customers are happy with their equipment and don't bother to read and fill it out.
That what I think... the thread had K-1 in the title... there are those with so little interest in a K-1 they avoid any thread with K-1 in the title. If I do it again, the title will be something like "Indicate your future purchase preferences" and the questions will be more even in with each camera in the poll getting equal billing. With the K-1 being mentioned in half the questions, a random selection would have produced a K-1 getting half the votes.

It's things like this that give marketing departments a big advantage over guys like me. A proper marketing department could run a poll like this, they probably have a standard kind of questionnaire and have some real numbers. Like 65 % acceptance on the Pentax forum translates to 50,000 camera sales or something like that. But without some real sales numbers to correlate with your poll, you really have no clue what it means out in the real world.

You do know that whatever Pentax has done, has created some real interest in the camera, even if a lot of what they've done was done 20 years ago.
03-14-2016, 08:20 AM   #109
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
You do know that whatever Pentax has done, has created some real interest in the camera, even if a lot of what they've done was done 20 years ago.
This is absolutely the case! Pentax is getting coverage and reviews in all sorts of places these days, as the FF is eagerly anticipated. I think this camera will be a turning of the corner moment Pentax. That's my wish, anyway!

On repeating the poll, maybe just headline it: "Your Future Pentax Camera Plans" or something similar to appeal to the broadest base. I do believe these exercises are fun and worth the time. And I certainly didn't want to nay-say your efforts at all. I just wanted to mention, maybe for those who hadn't thought about it much, that these polls were an interesting approximation.

Does anyone have the number of Pentax DSLR owners in the world? I've read that Japan is their biggest market by far. Numbers, numbers, I like lots of numbers....

03-14-2016, 08:25 AM   #110
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QuoteOriginally posted by yucatanPentax Quote
This is absolutely the case! Pentax is getting coverage and reviews in all sorts of places these days, as the FF is eagerly anticipated. I think this camera will be a turning of the corner moment Pentax. That's my wish, anyway!

On repeating the poll, maybe just headline it: "Your Future Pentax Camera Plans" or something similar to appeal to the broadest base. I do believe these exercises are fun and worth the time. And I certainly didn't want to nay-say your efforts at all. I just wanted to mention, maybe for those who hadn't thought about it much, that these polls were an interesting approximation.

Does anyone have the number of Pentax DSLR owners in the world? I've read that Japan is their biggest market by far. Numbers, numbers, I like lots of numbers....
I'm pretty much the same. My dad was an Urban Sociologist. To him, an idea is just and idea until you have some numbers to back it up. "You don't know nothing until you have numbers." You can tell me what you think, but until I see some numbers, I'm not believing.
03-14-2016, 08:36 AM   #111
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QuoteOriginally posted by yucatanPentax Quote
Does anyone have the number of Pentax DSLR owners in the world?
According to that one video review it is three. So if the polls are correct Pentax should sell at least two K-1s. But on the bright side, the K-1 will have about 65% market share (of Pentax users).

Of course, I suspect the reviewer was either misinformed or deliberately making a sarcastic comment. I am certain there are at least 10 Pentax users. Heck, I've personally met, face to face, at least 6.
03-14-2016, 08:55 AM   #112
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QuoteOriginally posted by jatrax Quote
According to that one video review it is three. So if the polls are correct Pentax should sell at least two K-1s. But on the bright side, the K-1 will have about 65% market share (of Pentax users).

Of course, I suspect the reviewer was either misinformed or deliberately making a sarcastic comment. I am certain there are at least 10 Pentax users. Heck, I've personally met, face to face, at least 6.
From Mark's poll, I think we can say there are at least 453, only 100 if you go with my poll.
03-14-2016, 09:49 AM   #113
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
From Mark's poll, I think we can say there are at least 453, only 100 if you go with my poll.
So if we take an average, reasonable since Mark's poll is over a year old I think, we get 277 users. lets go with 65% to be optimistic and that gives us: 180 K-1's sold!!

On the other hand you are making the assumption that everyone who participated in those polls is actually a Pentax user and not just a random internet poll taker?

03-14-2016, 10:22 AM   #114
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Go to the Pre-order thread and count the number who claim to have placed an order. Divide by number of registered users to arrive at a percentage. Reduce by a factor to account for propensity bias.* Estimate the potential buying population of markets served. Apply your percentage to determine first-round batch run.

* Anything larger than 12 1/2 10,000ths of one percent is probably wrong.

Last edited by monochrome; 03-14-2016 at 10:28 AM.
03-14-2016, 10:33 AM - 1 Like   #115
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It is possible to under-estimate demand as well as over-estimate. When the K-3 came out, I talked to store owners who were totally unprepared for the onslaught of legacy Pentax owners who had been waiting for an real upgrade to the K-5.

Personally, I think the K-1 will be even more. I think Pentax owners who haven't bought a body in years, who don't know or care about forums are going to be crawling out of the woodwork. When the K-3 came out, one small store in St; Catherines ontario , a small store in a strip mall, had orders for 14 cameras in less than a week. He sold his first 7, had been promised 7 more, and had stopped taking orders, because he didn't want people waiting for months when he had no idea when he could supply them with a camera. The guy I bought my A-400 from never would have sold it had there been a Pentax FF, he was a wedding guy. It was just too long on APS-c and he didn't believe the Pentax FF was ever going to come.

The pent up demand for this camera is going to be off the Pentax charts, just like the K-3. I've pretty much decided that since I'm not in a position to pre-order, there's a chance that by the time I'm ready to buy, there won't be one available, and I'll be waiting, just like if I'd pre-ordered. It has been a long time since Pentax did a whole lot for their high end users.
03-14-2016, 10:45 AM   #116
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Even though I fool around like in the post above Norm's, I have a feeling, based on the initial articles at the reputable web magazines, there could be a preference cascade back to Pentax coming. I can't place my order until August. I hope we have access in the USA by then.
03-14-2016, 10:53 AM   #117
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
I think Pentax owners who haven't bought a body in years, who don't know or care about forums are going to be crawling out of the woodwork.
Agree on that 100%. And Ricoh did a nice job of getting the word out, and I don't think that is over yet either. The k-3 (outside of the Pentax world) hardly made a splash, the K-1 is getting press, even if it is only sarcastic remarks And I've heard comments back from guys who left Pentax years ago expressing interest in knowing what is going on. Will they drop their current gear in the creek and come back to Pentax? Probably not, but they certainly might take a look.

The 645z was also, if I remember right, underestimated and there was trouble getting one for awhile. I think the K-1 has the potential to be the same. Except, that I think Ricoh already knew that and has planned accordingly.
03-14-2016, 12:11 PM   #118
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QuoteOriginally posted by jatrax Quote
I think the K-1 has the potential to be the same. Except, that I think Ricoh already knew that and has planned accordingly.
That makes complete sense, especially when we consider the last delay. Seems to me like they wanted to insure they ramped up and had a good amount of stock on hand. And weren't fussing with any lingering or existing problems at the same time they delivered a new flagship.

From all appearances (at least from my perspective), Ricoh is handling everything much better than Hoya. I have high hopes for ever more progress, even though I sometimes go off on a rant about whatever irksome thing bothered me at the moment.
03-14-2016, 06:10 PM   #119
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I've seen people guess that 10% of Canikons are full frame.


Guess is all anyone knows.


These Japanese camera companies are very defensive and simply don't release breakdowns of sales figures to the public or even their own shareholders.
03-16-2016, 07:01 AM   #120
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I know the poll is closed, but thought I'd offer my input in arrears.

I have been following the K-1 and D-FA lens developments with interest. At one point, I thought, yeah, the K-1 might be my next camera after my current K-5 II -- the preliminary performance indications have been very good, and the new lenses appear to be exceptional. However, there are two negative aspects for me - the cost and the weight/mass of a K-1/lens kit.

With my K-5 II, I have a decent stable of lenses covering 15mm to 300mm, including contemporary lenses (two Limiteds, 18-135, 50-135, Sigma HSM II 70-200, and DA* 300) and older ones (e.g., K 30/2.8, K 50/1.2, quality Takumars, F 50/1.7). To get the maximum benefit from a K-1 with similar 'reach,' I'd need to use the 70-200 in place of the 50-135, acquire the D-FA 28-105, and probably get something in the 400-500mm range. The current Canadian price for the K-1 is CAD $2,500. With a minimal lens purchase (say, the 28-105 to start), the cost would approach $3,800-4,000 including sales tax.

I'm also hesitant to replace the relatively compact and lightweight APS-C format with a 'full-frame' format. The K-1 is only ~250 g heavier than the K-5 II, but with the necessary longer lenses, the K-1/lens weight drives up considerably. Some might think, "if you want the increased performance, then suck up the weight..." That's a valid point, perhaps, but I think the IQ vs weight/cost trade-off of APS-C vs K-1 is also a valid consideration.

So, being not totally convinced the advanced features and enhanced IQ are worth it for me, I acquired a K-3 II last week from a local dealer who had one in stock. The price was softer on our family budget, which keeps the window open for a possible new lens. So far - I'm happy with the K-3 II.

All that said, I'm still following the K-1 revelations, and hope to see users posting images soon. The K-1 has the potential to be a milestone camera.

- Craig

Last edited by c.a.m; 03-16-2016 at 02:13 PM.
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