Originally posted by rawr Performance there can depend on your AF settings. If you shoot with centre-point AF, for example, you can't rely on the other surrounding AF points to assist you with depth information needed for predictive tracking. Similarly, if your metering has been set to spot with a K-3, you can't rely on the 86k RGB metering sensor to feed colour movement information as an input into your AF tracking algorithm either. Same problems are evident in Nikon '3D tracking' or Canon's 'AI Servo AF'. Predictive motion tracking is hard, and relies on multiple camera inputs to help make it work.
This is something I recently discovered for myself. Like MrFox I had always gone with centerpoint AF, even for AF-C - my thinking being that I don't trust the auto-af-point select to know what I want, and I can paint my target with the centerpoint just fine thank you. This worked, but it took a lot of effort, and patience - hardly a pleasurable experience, and resulted in too many duds for every keeper. I just put that down to the usual Pentax AF isn't as good thing.
Out with my K-1 at a kids soccer event, I started the same, but it was way too hard trying to keep up with over-energised kids running about, so I decided to give multi point a go, deciding the let the computer make up for my lethargy. And to my surprise it was darn good. Ok, no one should throw their 1DX away quite yet, but my success rate jumped. I think the K-1s nifty LCD viewfinder helped, and it had the center point activated before I started the AF (which I have on shutter half-press for action) - so I painted my chosen target with with the center point, and away it went. It stayed on target unless it moved outside of the AF point coverage or something completely blocked it. And to my surprise it was nailing focus at about 80% of shots - a massive improvement over before.
Now light was really good, and I did play with settings to improve performance (changed it to focus priority always and upped the focus hold priority), so apart from dealing with small kids I had good conditions for it.
Thinking I never got performance like that out of my K-3II I took it out along the next day to see if I could recreate my success, and with basically the same settings off it went - just as good as the K-1 (the increased frame rate helping as I could fire off in quick succession). Ok, neither are considered dedicated sports cameras, but for the occaisional action outing they will certainly make a good go of it.
Now I really wish they explained this in the manual. My lesson here was sometimes you should just trust the camera and the magic software within, it is probably more capable than we give credit for, especially if you are the sort who thinks they are much better off in control. I'm not going to be shooting in green mode any time soon, but I am willing to accept there are times I need to move away from spot focus.