Originally posted by *isteve And its still only 1% of the market.
There were
7.5 million DSLR sold in 2007, One percent of that would be 75,000. Can we assume US $3000 per 135 format DSLR body? With that assumption the world market for 135 format DSLRs would have been US $225,000,000.
Nikon and Canon took a combined 84% of the market with
Pentax taking 5.8% of the DSLR market in 2007. If Pentax had a 135 format DSLR in 2007 and could make the same market share in 135 format, that would be a possible 4,350 135 format Pentax DSLRs sold in 2007. Using the US $3000 assumption above, that would be US $13,050,000 in revenue.
What do you think the retail mark up on cameras is? Probably what, 200%, so Pentax would probably only earns about US $3.5 million out of that US $13 million
I suppose it would be harder to sale a US $3000 camera sight unseen? Where would you have been able to see a Pentax 135 DSLR camera when most retailers didn't even have the Pentax cropped sensor cameras on the shelf in 2007? Maybe then, the market would have been half that 4,350 cameras sold or maybe even less?
I think if our assumptions are even close, Pentax would have made about US $1.25 million in revenue on a 135 format DSLR in 2007. Does that sound like it would cover the business investment of development of a 135 format DSLR? Do you think 2008 will be better or worse for Pentax for sales of camera bodies?
Maybe Hoya would be smart to let the business cost of the acquisition be rolled into the earnings for this year, and hold off a year or two before taking the risk of putting a 135 format DSLR on the market when you consider the little revenue it would produce? Does that sound too far fetched?
I have to wonder what percent of the digital 135 format market Pentax would have to have to pay for the cost of development and roll out of the body? I suppose the body could only be updated once in five years to let the revenue build, but that doesn't sound like a good plan either. The technology just seems to be getting going, so I would imagine a new body at least every two years?
I don't know, but it sure seems like a Pentax 135 format DSLR is a lot further away than two years, shrug, maybe not? Maybe my assumptions are just wrong?
Thank you
Russell