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10-15-2020, 08:45 PM - 1 Like   #1
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Next Pentax FF body

I have noticed some of both Nikon and Canon FF DSLR models are now quite dated and not moving off shelves at BH, while they have been replaced as newer, updated models have been more recently developed. The Pentax FF K-1 II appears to have been doing ok, offering upper-level high resolution, low noise performance with excellent image quality, top-level build quality, and a wealth of features at a very good price point. It seems Canon, Nikon, and definitely Sony have been slowing down as to FF DSLR advancement. Might this bode well for Pentax? Looking at the newer BSI sensors available, I am curious as to how their resulting improved low noise might be even better if combined with the Pentax accelerator.

As Pentax has been releasing new FF lenses, and with more on the horizon, it seems they have no intention of abandoning FF DSLR development. Thoughts on this?

10-15-2020, 08:57 PM - 4 Likes   #2
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QuoteOriginally posted by mikesbike Quote
I have noticed some of both Nikon and Canon FF DSLR models are now quite dated and not moving off shelves at BH, while they have been replaced as newer, updated models have been more recently developed. The Pentax FF K-1 II appears to have been doing ok, offering upper-level high resolution, low noise performance with excellent image quality, top-level build quality, and a wealth of features at a very good price point. It seems Canon, Nikon, and definitely Sony have been slowing down as to FF DSLR advancement. Might this bode well for Pentax? Looking at the newer BSI sensors available, I am curious as to how their resulting improved low noise might be even better if combined with the Pentax accelerator.

As Pentax has been releasing new FF lenses, and with more on the horizon, it seems they have no intention of abandoning FF DSLR development. Thoughts on this?
You can watch the interviews with the Ricoh executives a couple of months ago, Mike, doubling down on the value of DSLRs as the other brands do a cagefight to the death over FF MILC. That's a crowded market which will be a race to the bottom.
10-15-2020, 09:33 PM - 9 Likes   #3
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I think anyone and everyone that wanted a mirrorless has already gone that route and will either stay there or come back to optical viewfinder, like I did. Pentax should be just fine doing what they are doing- staying small and specialized. The DSLR boom that started 10 years ago when new models were getting churned out every couple of months has passed. Everyone that jumped on that craze either got serious and upgraded their beginner DSLR to something more advanced/higher end and stuck with it, or they let that cheap DSLR sit in its bag hardly used as cell phones improved to the point where the inconvenience of carrying a big camera was not worth it to them anymore. Just my thoughts.
10-15-2020, 10:04 PM - 2 Likes   #4
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QuoteOriginally posted by stillshot2 Quote
that cheap DSLR sit in its bag hardly used as cell phones improved to the point where the inconvenience of carrying a big camera was not worth it to them anymore. Just my thoughts.
I bet there are a lot of those cheap DSLRs along with expensive DSLRs and Mirrorless sitting in those bags. A lot of people buy them to take better photos of their kids in various activities, but never learn to sue them and don't get the right lenses anyway. I've had a couple ask me what to get, for what they wanted to do, but they go to Best Buy and come out with a Rebel kit with an 18-55 zoom to shoot indoor soccer, then think they just have to take it to the game, point, and shoot. The photos are crap and they stick it in the closet to figure it out later.

10-15-2020, 10:19 PM - 4 Likes   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by mikesbike Quote
As Pentax has been releasing new FF lenses, and with more on the horizon, it seems they have no intention of abandoning FF DSLR development. Thoughts on this?
I believe it has been discussed in minute detail on other threads and that my first thought upon stumbling on this one was, "Deja vu, all over again..."


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10-15-2020, 10:27 PM - 1 Like   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by stevebrot Quote
I believe it has been discussed in minute detail on other threads and that my first thought upon stumbling on this one was, "Deja vu, all over again..."


Steve
Yes it has and it will continue to be even when Pentax is the last brand making FF DSLR's and their sales numbers go lower and lower.
10-15-2020, 10:40 PM - 4 Likes   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by KiloHotelphoto Quote
Yes it has and it will continue to be even when Pentax is the last brand making FF DSLR's and their sales numbers go lower and lower.
If Canon, Nikon and Sony can't turn their financial situation around, Khp, they might not make cameras of any sort. Their sales are tumbling. Your EF camera is a dinosaur, basically getting disowned by Canon!

Niche manufacturers survive like Leica and Ricoh making a small number of cameras for a small number of owners, those three *cannot*, they're big corporations needing big numbers or their owners put their money into other divisions.

That's what's happened to Olympus, a 100 year old camera company.
10-15-2020, 10:47 PM - 2 Likes   #8
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I'm sure more thoughts will turn to this as soon as the K-new is released with whatever new tech it brings (including VF/pentaprism). I don't think it will be long before those updates find their way into a FF body. There really doesn't seem to be any point in not spreading the development costs over a couple of models at least.

10-15-2020, 11:01 PM - 1 Like   #9
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All their sales numbers are going down but Canon, Nikon and Sony sales numbers are still high enough to be listed under brand name and not in the "other" category.

Yes my EF bodies are dinosaurs now and that's why I plan on picking up a R5 maybe but definitely a R1 when that comes out next year to replace my 5dsr and 1DX2, but all my EF glass will still work with the new mirrorless bodies.

Canon has had a number of people waiting to switch to mirrorless once they got the right bodies out and the R5 and R6 seem to be what they were waiting for. Canons sales numbers will probably bounce up this year if they can make them fast enough. The R5 is sold out everywhere in the US now with people being told maybe middle of November for some people who pre ordered in the summer from B&H.
10-16-2020, 01:21 AM - 1 Like   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by KiloHotelphoto Quote
All their sales numbers are going down but Canon, Nikon and Sony sales numbers are still high enough to be listed under brand name and not in the "other" category.

Yes my EF bodies are dinosaurs now and that's why I plan on picking up a R5 maybe but definitely a R1 when that comes out next year to replace my 5dsr and 1DX2, but all my EF glass will still work with the new mirrorless bodies.

Canon has had a number of people waiting to switch to mirrorless once they got the right bodies out and the R5 and R6 seem to be what they were waiting for. Canons sales numbers will probably bounce up this year if they can make them fast enough. The R5 is sold out everywhere in the US now with people being told maybe middle of November for some people who pre ordered in the summer from B&H.
Nikon has nothing else apart from cameras so they are actually in a fairly precarious position. Sony, I'd say, might close off or sell the camera division within some years - it's not the first time they drop divisions like hot potatoes whenever trouble arises, although they have stuck with phones.
Fujifilm croaks as soon as the instax fad does.
Olympus is already sinking.

I only really see Canon with the resilience needed to tough this up while downsizing.
10-16-2020, 02:48 AM - 3 Likes   #11
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It is pretty clear that Pentax has decided to be the last SLR maker and stick with the K mount. Probably by the end of next year we will see a K-1 II sequel that includes improvements that will be featured on the K-new -- stuff like faster frame rates, 4K video, and better buffer.

As to whether sticking with SLRs is going to sink Pentax, I think it unlikely. First of all, they are a small company and do not need to sell millions of cameras in order to turn a profit. As such, they can weather the down turn all of the brands are seeing better than a company like Nikon. Second, there are a group of traditionalists who prefer OVFs to EVFs. As they are left behind by Canon and Nikon, they may find a haven with Pentax. The whole point is to stand out. Leica has made a go of it selling (very expensive) range finders for quite awhile. Perhaps Pentax can do the same with SLRs.

A final thought is simply that Nikon has sunk a bunch of R and D money into the move to MILCs and as far as I can tell, they are not selling robustly. There are probably a lot of reasons for that, but the idea that you fling an MILC out on to the market and people just buy it off the shelves is not the reality. The Z6 and Z7 have already been replaced with version II and Nikon has said they aren't turning a profit this year. It is hard to stand out in an MILC market that is really crowded. Pentax, rightly or wrongly, has decided that they are sticking with SLRs. I think the investment it would take to bring out an MILC would be damaging to their brand and I'm not sure how they would stand out versus Canon, Nikon, Panasonic, Fuji, and Sony offerings that are already out there.
10-16-2020, 03:04 AM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
A final thought is simply that Nikon has sunk a bunch of R and D money into the move to MILCs and as far as I can tell, they are not selling robustly. There are probably a lot of reasons for that, but the idea that you fling an MILC out on to the market and people just buy it off the shelves is not the reality. The Z6 and Z7 have already been replaced with version II and Nikon has said they aren't turning a profit this year. It is hard to stand out in an MILC market that is really crowded. Pentax, rightly or wrongly, has decided that they are sticking with SLRs. I think the investment it would take to bring out an MILC would be damaging to their brand and I'm not sure how they would stand out versus Canon, Nikon, Panasonic, Fuji, and Sony offerings that are already out there.

Mirrorless are technically P&S camera someone have put a lens mount on. They sell to a larger extent than do DSLR's as an electronic gadget in a typical gadget store. The "problem" with such stores is that Sony and Canon are present in all of them world-wide. No wonder Nikon doesn't succeed as much.
Mirrorless have so far been most successful for those manufacturers that couldn't sell (D)SLR's successfully. That tells us something...

---------- Post added 10-16-20 at 12:10 PM ----------

The type of the next Pentax FF cameras depend much on whether Pentax will have one FF DSLR, like now, in their line-up or two (more is unrealistic). If one, the FF camera, like now, needs to please as many as possible and not be too expensive either. If two bodies, they have more freedom to move the K-1 replacement upmarket and release another more compact FF body perhaps, dare I say it, without flipp-flopp screen. Maybe matching the FA Limiteds - more relevant when the 21mm join their ranks...
Anyway, the features of the K-new will tell us much about how the next Pentax FF body will be like.

Last edited by Pål Jensen; 10-16-2020 at 03:42 AM.
10-16-2020, 03:30 AM - 1 Like   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by KiloHotelphoto Quote
Yes it has and it will continue to be even when Pentax is the last brand making FF DSLR's and their sales numbers go lower and lower.
No camera manufacturer is immune to reducing sales. They all record up-ticks in numbers shipped and sold when new models are released, but - these blips aside - they're all (not so) slowly tending towards a level where only serious enthusiasts and professionals are buying serious cameras and lenses.

Some look at Ricoh staying with DSLR as a negative, but I see it as positive in that it's increasingly a differentiator - and there's no doubt that some folks simply prefer DSLRs over mirrorless. I like both for different reasons, but where it's more practical to use a DSLR, that's my preference. I'm not especially old (early 50s), I got into photography late with almost no experience or background in film SLRs, and I love technology - but a reflex camera with an optical viewfinder is very appealing to me; I just find it more enjoyable to shoot with. Ricoh is relying on folks like me, and whilst we're the minority - we can't give Pentax the lion's share of the market it once dominated - I nevertheless believe there's enough of us to sustain Ricoh's modest expectations as a niche player in the "Other" category...
10-16-2020, 03:37 AM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by mikesbike Quote
I have noticed some of both Nikon and Canon FF DSLR models are now quite dated and not moving off shelves at BH, while they have been replaced as newer, updated models have been more recently developed. The Pentax FF K-1 II appears to have been doing ok, offering upper-level high resolution, low noise performance with excellent image quality, top-level build quality, and a wealth of features at a very good price point. It seems Canon, Nikon, and definitely Sony have been slowing down as to FF DSLR advancement. Might this bode well for Pentax? Looking at the newer BSI sensors available, I am curious as to how their resulting improved low noise might be even better if combined with the Pentax accelerator.

As Pentax has been releasing new FF lenses, and with more on the horizon, it seems they have no intention of abandoning FF DSLR development. Thoughts on this?
Pentax has already combined the 'accelerator' with "FF" in the K-1ii. Nikon has used 24mp to get low noise and high DR on "FF" bodies, but I'm not sure Pentax will go that way.
10-16-2020, 04:05 AM - 2 Likes   #15
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Too me it seems like Pentax is fine selling to just Pentax users. They doesn't seem the have any interest selling to the general consumer, they are hedging their bets that Nikon and Canon are going to abandon the dslr cameras eventually. I don't see that happening, perhaps the K-new will change that.
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