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03-16-2007, 06:38 AM   #1
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Big drop in pricing predicted

JJJPhoto started an interesting post on the other forum under “News” in regards to DSLR pricing in the next 12 to 24 months. It seems the “Experts” are predicting a K10D type body will sell for about $300. That is $50 less than todays K110D pricing from a reputable dealer. Today the K10D is somewhere around $500 more than the K110D. What will the new models offer at the new price points?

Entry level- $300
1.10Mp
2.Sr
3.Anti dust
4.scene modes
5.Buffer size same as K10D
6.Consumer grade jpegs

Mid level - $800
1.12-14 MP
2.Foveon or 1.3 crop sensor
3.5fps
4.Continuous shooting in RAW.

Pro type- $1,800
1.Full Frame sensor
2.16-18Mp
3.in camera adjustment for front and back focus
4.GPS
5.Wireless PC connection

Pocketable-$500
1.6-10Mp
2.SR
3.K mount

Medium format-$???

Don't know if Pentax will offer all of these options but somebody will. I'd be in for the pocketable and the Pro type, might even replace my K10D with the mid level. Just a fun exercise on what might happen.

Regards,

03-16-2007, 06:42 AM   #2
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In 24 months, I'd believe it. The full-frame sensor body is completely wrong - then Pentax have to go BACK to manufacturing FA lenses.
03-16-2007, 07:33 AM   #3
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Interesting ideas, but I don't think a 1.3 crop sensor will be below $1500 of a little while yet and 35 mm will still be a bit higher. I also believe that SR and antidust will be in all models.

I would much rather see a fuji Super CCD sensor in a midrange camera than foveon anyday, With the high DR and low noise characteristics of the S5 there would be no reason to go to 35 mm.
03-16-2007, 08:59 AM   #4
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I forgot about the Fuji sensor or i would have thrown that in the mix. You are of course right about SR and antidust in all models, I just didn't list it. The Pro level could be less than FF but will have to have the extra features like GPS and wireless.

Regards,

03-16-2007, 10:40 AM   #5
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Well, that would put the prices right around what they were for film cameras, back when people bought and sold film cameras.

I would disagree with only a couple points, but I am not an expert on the future. I don't think that there will be a difference in megapixels between entry and mid level, not at those prices. The megapixel race is about over at these levels and there will soon be a standard of sorts. The differences between entry and mid will be things like DR, noise, fps speed, build quality, non crippled lens mounts, etc. Sensor size is also a possibility, which would provide the lower noise.
03-16-2007, 12:04 PM   #6
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Because of the number of DA lenses around, I highly doubt that an APS-H SLR will ever come out. It's either FF for those that have FA lenses or APS-C for those with DA lenses. Personally, though, I think Pentax has given up permanently on FF The 1.3x crop factor on the DA*'s is just there to improve IQ.

$300 really degrades the concept of an SLR, but considering today's production costs, it's feasible. Probably won't be 10MP, though.

Built-in WiFi or Bluetooth would be very nice for a pro SLR, but why add a GPS? It would drain power, make the camera clumsier, and, worst of all, not always work.

Oh, and the 645D is rumored to cost around $5k.

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03-16-2007, 01:02 PM   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mo Quote
<snip>
$300 really degrades the concept of an SLR, but considering today's production costs, it's feasible. Probably won't be 10MP, though.
<snip>

What do you mean?
03-16-2007, 01:42 PM   #8
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Got a SiRf based GPSr? I've got two; damn things work just about everywhere! The handheld unit tracks in most large metal roofed buildings like Costco or Sams Club to within about 30 feet. The wrist unit (heart monitor) tracks even better!

I don't/won't speculate on specifics of where we we find photography equipment in 2-4 years; but I doubt the technology jump will be much bigger than from *ist-D release to K10D release; i.e not much.

03-16-2007, 01:49 PM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by regken Quote
JJJPhoto started an interesting post on the other forum under “News” in regards to DSLR pricing in the next 12 to 24 months. It seems the “Experts” are predicting a K10D type body will sell for about $300.
Surely, they must mean an upgraded K100D type or D40x type body, and NOT K10D type right? I can see how D40x type with pentaxmirror, single control dial, no Top LCD, no in body AF motor etc. can cost $300. But K10D? No way - the weather sealing, dual control dial, top LCD, 100,000 duty cycle shutter put it in mid-level; and of course, in a couple of years time, it will need upgrade to stay competitive.

QuoteQuote:
Mid level - $800
2.Foveon or 1.3 crop sensor
I don't think there is a big demand for larger sensor for mid-level camera.
To be honest, the usual trend is to make the sensor smaller, not larger.

For Pro niche market, maybe. But FF camera will probably be limited to a few models by Canon and possibly Sony/Nikon. Not Pentax.
03-16-2007, 01:52 PM   #10
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i have kodac DC 4800.. a 3 mega pixel camera that today would be refered to as a "point and shoot".. it sold for 800 dollars when it was first released..

i spose "cheap" or "affordable" does demean.. perhap it shouldnt but it does..

trog
03-16-2007, 02:05 PM   #11
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645d

QuoteOriginally posted by Mo Quote
Because of the number of DA lenses around, I highly doubt that an APS-H SLR will ever come out. It's either FF for those that have FA lenses or APS-C for those with DA lenses. Personally, though, I think Pentax has given up permanently on FF The 1.3x crop factor on the DA*'s is just there to improve IQ.

$300 really degrades the concept of an SLR, but considering today's production costs, it's feasible. Probably won't be 10MP, though.

Built-in WiFi or Bluetooth would be very nice for a pro SLR, but why add a GPS? It would drain power, make the camera clumsier, and, worst of all, not always work.

Oh, and the 645D is rumored to cost around $5k.
Your rumored cost of the 645D is not inconceivable. In fact Pentax are getting really aggressive in terms of pricing and would rather take in a lesser profit in the short term to convert other brand users and to convince those who are not yet committed to a system. But don't you mean 5k€?
03-16-2007, 03:40 PM   #12
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It's really nice if the prices drop a lot, but you have to keep in mind that there will be a bottom point that the prices can't go below. This is very evident in new technologies where design and development costs are very high which in turn makes the early products very expensive then the prices drop dramatically afterwards. This was the case with digital cameras some years back. Did we reach that bottom point or not? I think we are close.

What I'm seeing for the coming 24 months are more additional features and enhancements and a slight decline in prices. Typically, people will spend the same amount of money on a camera but demand much more features. So, in 24 months the new entry level DSLR will have more features inherited from the current amateur DSLR.

Full frame? I doubt that very much. I think manufacturers still have a room to push the APS-C sensor a little more to produce cleaner more detailed images and pocket the savings from not going FF. The sensor is by far the most expensive commodity in a camera. Just look at the Canon 5D. It's inferior to the Nikon D200 in almost every aspect except for it's sensor (and of course high ISO performance), yet it's priced at almost double that of the D200. This will be the case unless a major breakthrough in sensor technology happens and even then it's going to be years until that technology is harnessed and production goes mainstream.

Besides, manufacturers are digging themselves deeper and deeper in APS-C size. They aren't going to abandon that technology easily and deem most of their newest lenses obsolete.
03-16-2007, 04:20 PM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by benjikan Quote
YBut don't you mean 5k€?
If thats true, that would put it at roughly the as price as the canon 1dmIII is rumored to be and cheaper than the 1dsmkII in australia. Wow, at that price id buy 2 if i had the lenses for it.
03-16-2007, 05:10 PM   #14
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I'm pretty skeptical that what you suggest will happen. I do think we'll see more and cheaper entry level cameras with ever higher megapixel counts -- probably what the news "expert" referred to in JJJPhoto's original post was referring to. And there will probably be all sorts of other headline-grabbing features like OIS and live LCD view (and once that's there, face detection isn't far beyond.)

But these cameras won't have advanced features like the K10D's weather sealing, and they'll have interfaces designed for simplicity rather than ease for advanced users. No dual wheel control. And I wouldn't be surprised to see a dSLR with no RAW support within a few years.

I also am skeptical that we'll see 5fps on $800 cameras in 12-24 months. Likewise, I don't think the 1.3× crop sensors are going to creep down too far too fast. Maybe some, because it's pretty powerful marketing, but people keep seeming to forget that sensor size presents a tradeoff in lens size and weight. And it's possible (rumors, rumors!) that someone else will bring out a Foveon-based camera real-soon-now, but the pricing for Sigma's SD14 doesn't bode well for $800 cameras. (And of course while Foveon does some nice tricks, it's also got some serious downsides -- it's no silver bullet.)

But I'll echo the hope for more and cheaper Fuji-sensor based systems. I really love my little F31fd.
03-16-2007, 06:48 PM   #15
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lol - I think we've well & truly ripped this to shreds. To finish off...
QuoteOriginally posted by regken Quote
Pocketable-$500
1.6-10Mp
2.SR
3.K mount
Pocketable... with an SLR lens mount? Somebody's smoking something...
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