[RioRico]

Agree with much of the above, and will add: the key to staying compatible is to continue upgrading, while keeping as much backward compatibility as possible. Modern computers don't use old Parallel/Serial ports as such, but they can be replicated with USB/Firewire adapters, so the old hardware needn't be discarded if it still works. (At least I *hope* I can get a USB-Parallel adapter for my old plotter.)

With media, when the new phases in and the old phases out, it's usually not a surprise. It's discussed a lot. You'll know when it's time to upgrade. No, I can't read my old 12" and 5.25" or even 3.5" floppies any more (except on one really old machine, a Monorail, which I keep for driving that plotter and a MIDI guitar pickup). But when the time came, I copied those floppies all to ZIP discs, then (as years passed) to CDs, then to various generations of external hard discs.

(And those ZIP discs and MiniDiscs are still handy when I fire up my analog and MIDI synths and guitars, for recording tracks that will later be merged and moved to the next external HD that I free up. They work. Waste not, want not.)

No, USB and Firewire and SD and XD will not be around forever, not in new products. But converters to The Next Great Medium will be sold as long as enough people want to use their existing gear, and some old media have amazing lifespans. 120 film was developed in 1892. 78rpm records were born a few years later, and are still made in India. Vacuum tubes are still in demand. Some technologies just don't fade away. But alas, Betamax...

[simico]

Don't worry about future, just enjoy present

[southy]

my bigger fear is that film developing chemicals for my B&W developing will become harder to find rather than hardware to get my images off my digital camera. an old computer with a usb port and a card reader will last a lot longer than a gallon of developer.

[Lowell Goudge]

I think this is much about nothing.

if you think about the technology available in 1980 we had serial ports and parallel ports and ran MS Dos version 1.??

We had 6 or 7 major revisions of DOS and many minor ones. Then we had windows. I first saw Windows Version 2, then 3, (3 had many updates) then 95, 98, ME, XP, Vista (not to mention NT3, NT4, NT2000, XP professional,.....)

Now computers have neither of those ports, the result and impact are, absolutely nothing. You can get a USB to serial or USB to parallel cable for $15. no big deal.

what is more important, because I feel there will always be a way to get the inages off the camera or memory, is the length of time that it will be possible to read JPEG images, TIFF images RAW files.

[reeftool]

I don't think there is anything to worry about. There will be new and faster flash cards in the future along with faster interfaces that will replace the current USB but with the large amount of digital cameras and USB devices around there will be adapters available. Anything to replace them is still a few years down the road anyway and the aftermarket will continue to make adapters as long as someone wants one.

[bymy141]

Looking at a few perfectly good working old cameras on the shelf, and a few old computer items I keep (including an old Toshiba 80486 laptop!), I've noticed the following:
- The old camera's were replaced because of technology upgrades (AF first, digital later).
- The computer is not useable because the battery is broken and you cannot get any new spares, and much more important, it does not work with modern applications.
I do think my friends will have problems accepting Lotus AmiPro document files etc I can edit on that machine.

So, overall, if you are content with your K10D in 15 years time, it may very well serve your needs. However, you probably want to enjoy new features and technologies later as they become available.
Perhaps it will not be possible to get new SDHC cards or K10D batteries in 15 years time when you need to replace the items you use today, but I bet technology push will outdate the camera before that happens....
There will be new technology, on the horizon are:
- JPEG will be replaced by a much better standard. Will you move along?
- AVCHD video or the like will become commodity.
- Much better dynamic range sensors.
- Lenses that will focus on all subjects.
- 3D photography.
- Blog / twitter / Earth integration / etc

- Bert

[RoxnDox]

I have a K10D and a KM. It just occurred to me...will my cameras become outmoded in the future because the computer programs like Office 2000, 2003, 2007 etc....whatever will develop into yet more modern systems and eventually my costly cameras will not work, be able to transfer pictures and will be obsolete ?

I don't know much about computers except every few years....good stuff that still works becomes useless because it is rendered obsolete.

Are my fears groundless or not ?

Short answer: Yes, your fears are groundless.

Your cameras won't become obsolete just because the computers keep changing (I won't call the recent changes in MS Office "advances"!). The things that affect you, such as USB and using card readers, will be around for a long time.

Despite all the marketing hype about advances in technology, there is an awful lot of older technology still out there chugging along doing work - heck, I make my living keeping up database software written in Fortran 77 - as in the year 1977...

Jim

[tybeck]

As long as somebody writes a program to look at your RAW files you are good on the software side. As for hardware compatibility, your K10D body will likely break before it's obsolete.

[rfortson]

um, what do you think SD card readers plug into mate?

Mine is plugged directly into the PCI bus inside the computer. They don't have to be USB.

[rfortson]

I have a number of pix stored on CD's and a Lacey Hard Drive...will I be able to access my pictures for the next 30 years or so off these items?

The CDs will degrade and die in as short as a few years. The hard drive should last about the same, but you can move them to another hard drive.

External hard drives have become my backup of choice. I just bought a 1TB (that's 1000 GB) hard drive for $100. I also have a couple of older, smaller hard drives in addition to the hard drive inside my computer. I've got about three or four copies of my catalog, so I feel safe. Also, if you have to evacuate for anything, it's easy to pick up the hard drive and take it with you. (I live in a hurricane zone.)

[OregonJim]

Agree with much of the above, and will add: the key to staying compatible is to continue upgrading, while keeping as much backward compatibility as possible. Modern computers don't use old Parallel/Serial ports as such, but they can be replicated with USB/Firewire adapters, so the old hardware needn't be discarded if it still works. (At least I *hope* I can get a USB-Parallel adapter for my old plotter.)

Agreed, it's usually not too difficult to extend backward compatibility through the use of hardware adapters. The key is, will the newest operating system contain drivers to make use of that old hardware? Often the hardware issue is only half the battle...

[OregonJim]

Mine is plugged directly into the PCI bus inside the computer. They don't have to be USB.

...and PCI is already being phased out in favor of PCI-Express and other "standards". The train keeps rollin'....

[Marc Sabatella]

They will be fine for years and years yet. Chances are you will have upgraded your camera before those become obsolete.

For the OP:

Much as you might like to think that because you still use your 1952 Leica, you might still be wanting to use your K10D decades from now too - that just probably isn't feaible. The question isn't so much whether you'll be *able* to use the K10D in 30 years, but whether you really will still want to. Some things are designed to be built and used "forever"; others are designed to be useful for a years then replaced with something better. Digital cameras are in the latter category. You never replaced your 1952 Leica because you never felt the need - it's not like the 1962 or 1972 or 1982 models improved that much on it. That's unlikely to be the case with the K10D, regardless of whether you can manage to still get it to work or not.

[lesmore49]

The CDs will degrade and die in as short as a few years. The hard drive should last about the same, but you can move them to another hard drive.I hope your wrong and I maybe naive, but the Fuji CDs I bought are supposed to be good for a lifetime...I'm being conservative and assuming 30 years.

External hard drives have become my backup of choice. I just bought a 1TB (that's 1000 GB) hard drive for $100. I did too, a Lacey 1TB...my understanding is that it's a very good piece of equipment. I'm hoping it will last at least 25-30 years...as I'm 60 now, after that I'm assuming it might not be an issue, unless my descendents want to keep my photos. I also have a couple of older, smaller hard drives in addition to the hard drive inside my computer. I've got about three or four copies of my catalog, so I feel safe. Also, if you have to evacuate for anything, it's easy to pick up the hard drive and take it with you. (I live in a hurricane zone.)

You know all this stuff about maintaining photographic records and systems...no one really seems to know...I appreciate the varied opinion...but it reminds me of the old discussions about how long different types of film paper and negatives would last...no one seems to really know.

[RioRico]

You never repalced your 1952 Leica because you never felt the need - it's not lik the 1962 or 1972 or 1982 models improved that much on it. That's unlikely to be the case with the K10D, regardless of whether you can manage to still get it to work or not.

This highlights the difference between film and digital cameras. With a film cam, as long as the shutter et al work and film in that format is available, you can 'upgrade' the cam with newer|better lenses and film. With a digicam, the camera is the film. Want more resolution with a film cam? Use finer-grain film. Want more with a digicam? You must replace the camera. Upgrading cams costs a lot more than upgrading film.

I'd add, "Just don't get stuck with a format like 110, 126, 127, 620, etc." But as with 12" and 5.25" floppies (single-sided! single-density!) the demise of those formats came as no surprise. Anyone using them who stayed at all current with the news, knew what was coming (and going). There's plenty of time to upgrade.

Also, as someone above pointed out, things wear out and break. Electrical connections and components fail. My K20D is rated for what, 50k shutter clicks? Maybe 100k? I'll easily get there within 10 years, even if I'm not subjected to EMP. Entropy: Everything put together, sooner or later falls apart. Rugged only lasts for so long. Hell, a silicon-eating virus could wipe out ALL our toys!