Originally posted by Marc Sabatella Note he says "proved", not "guessed", and puts specific numbers to it. He is looking at the actual data, measuring standard deviations and other statistical stuff that goes way over my head (although back when I was a math major in college, I'm sure I'd have followed it better!).
Thanks for finding a relevant GBG quote on the issue. I've read it before but lost track of it in the discussion on DPR.
At the risk of bringing down a bolt of lightning on my head, GBG is still guessing, or more accurately observing, forming a hypothesis, testing it and then putting forward a theory. His work is very informed and based on a series of careful observations and tests he and others have made, but his observations merely indicate correlation, not proof.
That's the problem with reverse engineering a black-box. You see some results in the outputs of the black box that match your hypothesis and pass your tests, but you have no way of really knowing what caused the results within the black box because you can't open it up and look inside. If you can't look inside you have no real way of knowing whether the results you observe were intended, or co-incidental, or or a by-product of something else, or even produced by something else entirely within the black box that you didn't know was there.
You could only call the matter
provenif your observations of the outputs of the black box matched the settings you saw within the machinery of the black box once you opened it and had a look inside. Bingo! You can now prove that the black box has been setup to output X in exactly the way you observe output X. Cause is clear and precisely matches effect. Case closed.
Statistically you could also probably consider the matter close enough 'proved' if you had enough observations from lots of K20D and K7 cameras to demonstrate an extremely high incidence of behaviour that supports your hypothesis, but that's hard to organise given the millions of cameras out there. So measuring results from a small sample won't get you anywhere near even statistical proof.
Phew!
Luckily pedantry is perfectly acceptable, even expected, on pentaxforums, otherwise I would have felt really awkward posting that.