Originally posted by Anton Magus
I think what is being argued by myself and many others on this forum is that for most people the size of the camera is not so critical that they can't go to an alternative which is marginally larger in dimensions or weight, specially if that trade-off in size was for a more versatile camera with the promise of better image quality from a bigger sensor, or if it was for the same potential image quality but a significantly lower price tag.
Clearly the Q will appeal to many but my feeling is that the price is such that it will ultimately only be bought by a few who absolutely need it and can find no suitable alternative. The big question then is whether it will generate enough revenue for Pentax to continue its development and widen the lens range for it, or whether it will be dropped in favor of something else with a broader market appeal and the promise of bigger sales volumes. I guess we will just have to wait and see.
Hi Anton,
I think you seriously underestimate the size of the market.
I read somewhere that Pentax expects to make about 20,000 Q units per month, for a total of @ 240,000 for the year. The total number digital cameras shipped for the past few years has been @ 120 million per year, with fixed lens at @ 110 million, and ILCs at @ 10 million.
Of the fixed lens cameras, a great majority of these use a sensor smaller than 1/1.7" since there are, IIRC, less than 10 models with this sensor or a little larger, and over 400 models with smaller sensors.
If the fixed lens models sell at the same proportion to the number of models (and the probable bias is towards the smaller sensors), then there are over 100 million new camera purchasers each year that could see the Q as an upgrade from the fixed lens model that they have or are considering. 1/4 of 1 percent is not an unreachable goal for even a comparatively expensive model, and coming anywhere close to selling out the year's production would have be seen to be a resounding success.
Also, by choosing to go high-end with the body, the Q can also attract some DSLR users who want a higher level of control over their camera's functions than is offered by most compacts. Higher end DSLR users who assume over $1K for a new body and who have paid $1K + for single lens purchases will not balk at the price if IQ is acceptable.
IQ should not be as much of a problem as many make it out to be. Reading some of the blogs of those that provided the downsized pre production Flickr samples, it seems that Pentax actually designed the Q's image circle to allow for at least a 1/1.7" sensor, but finally chose to go with the 1/2.3" BSI CMOS after comparing it to the larger CCD sensor for a number of reasons, including availability, sensor development potential, and comparative IQ. I can't be sure of this, because the Google translations are pretty cryptic, but they seem to give a sense that there were significant advantages to the smaller sensor, at least at this time.
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Remember that since Pentax is small and can't make its own sensors, they are dependent on other companies to supply the sensors and their corresponding technology. Also consider that Canon chose to back off on MPs going from the G10 to the G11 from 14 MP to 10 MP to get better IQ at higher ISO. This could indicate a lack of development potential for this sensor format considering the numbers sold.
I would also think that output speed and heat (since sensor based stabilization adds to the heat problem, in addition to the extra heat from LV and video use) were also technical considerations. None of the "enthusiast" compacts with 1/1.7" CCD sensors offer sensor based stabilization or higher video res than 760P, so heat dissipation might be a limiting issue with the CCD, especially in a very small body. AFAIK, no mfg currently offers a 1/1.7" or marginally larger CMOS or BSI CMOS for use in a compact still camera.
If a suitable larger sensor were to be offered, Pentax could choose to use it in a future Q model.
Note that the lenses don't have a 35mm FL EQ number engraved -- this is supposedly because the "crop" factor could change with a sensor format change, and committing to a particular crop factor for this conversion at this could have been inconvenient for the future . . .
I really don't think that you'll be convinced of this camera's possible viability, but I thought it would be worthwhile to the thread to offer a different perspective and some additional facts and speculation.
Scott